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#外资研报

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附件总结 MS-中国钢材出口｜欧洲｜8 月环比持平 China Steel Exports Europe August - Flat MoM.pdf

  1. 12-guA 12-voN 22-beF 22-yaM 22-guA 22-voN 32-beF 32-yaM 32-guA 32-voN 42-beF 42-yaM 42-guA 42-voN 52-beF 52-yaM 52-guA 52-voN 62-beF 62-yaM 62-guA
  2. 12-voN 22-beF 22-yaM 22-guA 22-voN 32-beF 32-yaM 32-guA 32-voN 42-beF 42-yaM 42-guA 42-voN 52-beF 52-yaM 52-guA 52-voN 62-beF 62-yaM 62-guA
  3. 12-naJ 12-raM 12-yaM 12-luJ 12-peS 12-voN 22-naJ 22-raM 22-yaM 22-luJ 22-peS 22-voN 32-naJ 32-raM 32-yaM 32-luJ 32-peS 32-voN 42-naJ 42-raM 42-yaM 42-luJ 42-peS 42-voN 52-naJ 52-raM 52-yaM 52-luJ 52-peS 52-voN 62-naJ 62-raM 62-yaM 62-luJ
  4. 61-nuJ 61-voN 71-rpA 71-peS 81-beF 81-luJ 81-ceD 91-yaM 91-tcO 02-raM 02-guA 12-naJ 12-nuJ 12-voN 22-rpA 22-peS 32-beF 32-luJ 32-ceD 42-yaM 42-tcO 52-raM 52-guA 62-naJ 62-nuJ
  5. 61-voN 71-rpA 71-peS 81-beF 81-luJ 81-ceD 91-yaM 91-tcO 02-raM 02-guA 12-naJ 12-nuJ 12-voN 22-rpA 22-peS 32-beF 32-luJ 32-ceD 42-yaM 42-tcO 52-raM 52-guA 62-naJ 62-nuJ
  6. Source: European Commission, Morgan Stanley Research. ^ Updated from Annex IV.1 Volumes of tariff–rate quotas, ^^ Unused quotas from
  7. professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the “Order”);
  8. or (iii) are persons to whom an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the Financial

MS-中国工程机械：关于本轮抛售的点评.pdf

  1. 1IPFXHm2oUcUaYaQcM7NtRqQnPsMlOrRwPjMmNrOaQoPrNwMnPrNvPrMmM

MS-中国国际金融股份有限公司｜亚太 事件驱动型套利或主导近期股票走势 China International Capital Corp. Ltd. Asia Pacific Event Driven Arbitrage Likely Dominated Recent Stock Movement.pdf

  1. the swap-ratio implied a spread of 13-14% against CICC-A. We think the long position Leverage (EOP) (%) 45.7 41.5 39.7 37.8
  2. W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s e ith e r p ro v id e d o r is p ro v id in g n o n -in v e stm e n t b a n k in g , se c u ritie s-re la te d se rv ic e s to a n d /o r in th e p a st h a s e n te re d in to a n a g re e m e n t to p ro v id e
  3. W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s p ro v id e d o r is p ro v id in g in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s to , o r h a s a n in v e stm e n t b a n k in g c lie n t re la tio n sh ip w ith , th e fo llo w in g c o m p a n y : A g ric u ltu ra l
  4. W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s re c e iv e d c o m p e n sa tio n fo r p ro d u c ts a n d se rv ic e s o th e r th a n in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s fro m A g ric u ltu ra l B a n k o f C h in a L im ite d , B a iro n g In c.,
  5. In th e n e x t 3 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y e x p e c ts to re c e iv e o r in te n d s to se e k c o m p e n sa tio n fo r in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s fro m A g ric u ltu ra l B a n k o f C h in a L im ite d , B a n k o f B e ijin g C o L td , B a n k
  6. W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s re c e iv e d c o m p e n sa tio n fo r in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s fro m B a n k o f C h in a L im ite d , In d u stria l a n d C o m m e rc ia l B a n k o f C h in a .
  7. W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y m a n a g e d o r c o -m a n a g e d a p u b lic o ffe rin g (o r 14 4 A o ffe rin g ) o f se c u ritie s o f B a n k o f C h in a L im ite d .
  8. A s o f A u g u st 3 1, 2 0 2 6 , M o rg a n S ta n le y b e n e fic ia lly o w n e d 1% o r m o re o f a c la ss o f c o m m o n e q u ity se c u ritie s o f th e fo llo w in g c o m p a n ie s c o v e re d in M o rg a n S ta n le y R e se a rc h : C h in a In te rn a tio n a l

MS-中国互联网：AI 广告：从注意力到转化成果 China Internet AI Advertising：From Attention to Outcomes.pdf

    • We calculate 2025 advertising revenue divided by the annual DAU time pool for the marketing density. Where a platform’s disclosed revenue scope includes commissions, we mark the bubble with a dashed outline.
  2. Taobao/Tmall's net spend score improved from -3 in 2024 to +55 in Clearest transaction-led beneficiary: closed-loop outcome data supports
  3. AI-tool users report c.10ppt higher perceived ROI. CMR recovery and longer-term commission and merchant-workflow upside.
  4. Meituan's net spend score rose from +9 in 2024 to +55 in 2026, Transaction closure—not standalone AI mindshare—is the moat;
  5. Exhibit 10: Improvements in content generation, ROI and Exhibit 11: AI is already affecting marketing expenditure across
  6. Improve content produc a t s io s n e t e s f t f e ic s i t e e n d cy / increase number of 64% Creative production spend 80%
    • We calculate 2025 advertising revenue divided by the average daily DAU time pool for the marketing density.Where a platform’s disclosed revenue scope includes commissions, we mark the bubble with a dashed outline.
  8. Exhibit 21: 72% report unchanged total ad dollars but internal Exhibit 22: AI has made cross-platform media allocation more

MS-中国建材｜亚太 中国调研纪要 —— 第二天 China Materials Asia Pacific China Trip Takeaways – Day 2.pdf

  1. 4FQGXHm2qWdVfV8O9R9PsQrRnPtNkPnNzQeRpPwPbRoMpPMYqMmRNZmMpR

MS-中国龙源电力集团｜亚太 缺乏催化因素维持等权重评级 China Longyuan Power Group Asia Pacific Stay EW on lack of catalysts.pdf

    1. We lower Longyuan-H's PT to HK$6.00 and Longyuan-A's PT to Rmb14.60, down Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with
  2. Remain EW on Longyuan A/H: A lthough a P/B valuation A/H of 1.6x/0.5x i n 2027E Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley
  3. assume Longyuan's wind utilization is down 12% yoy in FY26 (it was down 10.9% yoy For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
  4. DCF 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E 2036E 2037E 2038E 2039E 2040E 2041E 2042E 2043E 2044E 2045E 2046E 2047E 2048E 2049E 2050E
  5. Pre-tax profit 6,926 8,290 9,554 10,355 11,634 11,518 11,841 12,190 12,721 13,108 13,433 13,703 14,067 14,547 14,781 15,156 12,786 11,918 1 0,077 9,658 10,044 1 0,440 1 0,877 10,876
    • Depreciation 14,944 15,999 16,643 17,767 18,795 19,174 19,541 19,923 20,305 20,687 21,070 21,454 21,838 22,222 22,606 22,991 23,376 23,679 2 3,983 24,286 2 4,589 2 4,893 2 5,197 25,501
    • Less adjusted taxes (1,571) (1,927) (2,273) (2,517) (2,889) (2,917) (3,058) (3,210) (3,148) (3,245) (3,326) (3,394) (3,485) (3,605) (3,663) (3,757) (3,165) (2,948) (2,487) (2,383) (2,479) (2,578) (2,687) (2,687)
  8. +/- Interest Expense/ (Income) 3,321 3,370 3,379 3,361 3,179 2,877 2,426 1,974 1,512 1,029 536 31 (485) (939) (1,408) (1,886) (231) (248) 9 5 (131) (362) (599) (841) (1,089)

MS-中国 AI 路径：消费 AI：超越聊天机器人竞赛 China's AI Path：Consumer AI Beyond the Chatbot Race.pdf

  1. case fit. Our AlphaWise survey shows 80% weekly personal AI usage in China vs. Y ang.Liu@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1911
  2. free access is coupled with ecosystem distribution, CNY campaigns and a broader T om.Tang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1860
  3. Exhibit 8: Multi-homing deepened materially: Number of AI Exhibit 9: AI adoption is broadening across entry points: Past-
  4. Short-form content generation: email, ad copy, social post, bullet summary Easy 300–3k 200–1.5k Rmb 0.0014–0.011 88.89–740.7
  5. Monetization 3 (not yet clear, potentially subscriptions 4 (natural monetization within the 3 (hardware premium, cloud-service
  6. Advertising formula Ad-exposed DAU x queries/day x commercial query mix x monetized commercial query rate x ad units per monetized commercial query x 365 x eCPM / 1,000.
  7. 3 4 5 0 0 0 % % % 2 1 7 0 % % 2 8 9 % % 2 9 8 % % 2 8 7 % % 2 7 6 % % 2 9 8 % % 46% 48% R M W a o e r e n e k t ly h ly ly 2 3 4 0 0 0 % % % 27% 28% 29% 26% 27% 28% 32% 34% R M W a o e r e n e k t ly h ly ly
  8. Exhibit 33: 64% used five or more AI tools in the past month Exhibit 34: Multi-tool usage remains driven by differentiated

MS-中国 AI 之路：从 8.5 万亿资本开支到 3 倍算力 China's AI Path From Rmb8.5tr Capex to 3x Compute.pdf

  1. commitments for long-term visibility, and 4) by investing upstream and downstream. companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,
  2. fundraising over the next f ive years to support Rmb2.0tr of offshore capex. Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley
  3. ROIC (2.5-3 years payback) for IaaS/MaaS (1P) and 30% (~2 years payback) for MaaS refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this
  4. Exhibit 14: China AI power demand to increase to 13GW in Exhibit 15: Third-party datacenter orders to increase to 11GW in
  5. This report references U.S. Executive Order 14032 and/or entities or securities that are designated thereunder. U.S. persons may be
  6. Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the Monetary
  7. and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financial
  8. services license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financial

MS-中国WFE：更强劲、更持久-20260917.pdf

  1. WACC of 10.1%, derived from a risk-free rate of 2.0%, beta of 1.35 and a market risk appear likely to maintain high capex in 2026

    1. 45% revenue CAGR in 2025-28, fueled 1) 30% revenue CAGR in 2025-28, thanks to 1) <15% revenue CAGR in 2025-28, owing to

  3. 45% in 2026, thanks to scale effects and the gross margin to grow slightly through 2026- slower-than-expected R&D and slower cost
  4. Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions: a 10.1% WACC (beta 1.35, risk-free rate ▪We are positive on 2026 WFE demand
  5. 2%, and cost of equity of 6%), a medium-term growth rate of 13%, and a terminal growth rate from China given rising capex investments
  6. 5/5 24 Month 5/5 3 Month e in x c p o o n s s u is r t e e s n h t e w ld it w h i o th r m M a S y P n B o . t In r f e o fl rm ec a t t i b o r n o a m d a e y r b m e arket EPS 1.90 2.82
  7. Base case, residual income model. We assume a 6.2% cost of equity, a medium-term growth ▪We remain positive on AMEC's new orders
  8. rate of 14% and a terminal growth rate of 4.0%. We believe these assumptions are justified, signed with both advanced-node and

文档

MS-中国钢材出口｜欧洲｜8 月环比持平 China Steel Exports Europe August - Flat MoM.pdf

总结

  1. 12-guA 12-voN 22-beF 22-yaM 22-guA 22-voN 32-beF 32-yaM 32-guA 32-voN 42-beF 42-yaM 42-guA 42-voN 52-beF 52-yaM 52-guA 52-voN 62-beF 62-yaM 62-guA
  2. 12-voN 22-beF 22-yaM 22-guA 22-voN 32-beF 32-yaM 32-guA 32-voN 42-beF 42-yaM 42-guA 42-voN 52-beF 52-yaM 52-guA 52-voN 62-beF 62-yaM 62-guA
  3. 12-naJ 12-raM 12-yaM 12-luJ 12-peS 12-voN 22-naJ 22-raM 22-yaM 22-luJ 22-peS 22-voN 32-naJ 32-raM 32-yaM 32-luJ 32-peS 32-voN 42-naJ 42-raM 42-yaM 42-luJ 42-peS 42-voN 52-naJ 52-raM 52-yaM 52-luJ 52-peS 52-voN 62-naJ 62-raM 62-yaM 62-luJ
  4. 61-nuJ 61-voN 71-rpA 71-peS 81-beF 81-luJ 81-ceD 91-yaM 91-tcO 02-raM 02-guA 12-naJ 12-nuJ 12-voN 22-rpA 22-peS 32-beF 32-luJ 32-ceD 42-yaM 42-tcO 52-raM 52-guA 62-naJ 62-nuJ
  5. 61-voN 71-rpA 71-peS 81-beF 81-luJ 81-ceD 91-yaM 91-tcO 02-raM 02-guA 12-naJ 12-nuJ 12-voN 22-rpA 22-peS 32-beF 32-luJ 32-ceD 42-yaM 42-tcO 52-raM 52-guA 62-naJ 62-nuJ
  6. Source: European Commission, Morgan Stanley Research. ^ Updated from Annex IV.1 Volumes of tariff–rate quotas, ^^ Unused quotas from
  7. professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the “Order”);
  8. or (iii) are persons to whom an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the Financial

预览

MS-中国钢材出口｜欧洲｜8 月环比持平 China Steel Exports Europe August - Flat MoM.pdf

MS-中国工程机械：关于本轮抛售的点评.pdf

总结

  1. 1IPFXHm2oUcUaYaQcM7NtRqQnPsMlOrRwPjMmNrOaQoPrNwMnPrNvPrMmM

预览

MS-中国工程机械：关于本轮抛售的点评.pdf

MS-中国国际金融股份有限公司｜亚太 事件驱动型套利或主导近期股票走势 China International Capital Corp. Ltd. Asia Pacific Event Driven Arbitrage Likely Dominated Recent Stock Movement.pdf

总结

  1. the swap-ratio implied a spread of 13-14% against CICC-A. We think the long position Leverage (EOP) (%) 45.7 41.5 39.7 37.8
  2. W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s e ith e r p ro v id e d o r is p ro v id in g n o n -in v e stm e n t b a n k in g , se c u ritie s-re la te d se rv ic e s to a n d /o r in th e p a st h a s e n te re d in to a n a g re e m e n t to p ro v id e
  3. W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s p ro v id e d o r is p ro v id in g in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s to , o r h a s a n in v e stm e n t b a n k in g c lie n t re la tio n sh ip w ith , th e fo llo w in g c o m p a n y : A g ric u ltu ra l
  4. W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s re c e iv e d c o m p e n sa tio n fo r p ro d u c ts a n d se rv ic e s o th e r th a n in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s fro m A g ric u ltu ra l B a n k o f C h in a L im ite d , B a iro n g In c.,
  5. In th e n e x t 3 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y e x p e c ts to re c e iv e o r in te n d s to se e k c o m p e n sa tio n fo r in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s fro m A g ric u ltu ra l B a n k o f C h in a L im ite d , B a n k o f B e ijin g C o L td , B a n k
  6. W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s re c e iv e d c o m p e n sa tio n fo r in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s fro m B a n k o f C h in a L im ite d , In d u stria l a n d C o m m e rc ia l B a n k o f C h in a .
  7. W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y m a n a g e d o r c o -m a n a g e d a p u b lic o ffe rin g (o r 14 4 A o ffe rin g ) o f se c u ritie s o f B a n k o f C h in a L im ite d .
  8. A s o f A u g u st 3 1, 2 0 2 6 , M o rg a n S ta n le y b e n e fic ia lly o w n e d 1% o r m o re o f a c la ss o f c o m m o n e q u ity se c u ritie s o f th e fo llo w in g c o m p a n ie s c o v e re d in M o rg a n S ta n le y R e se a rc h : C h in a In te rn a tio n a l

预览

MS-中国国际金融股份有限公司｜亚太 事件驱动型套利或主导近期股票走势 China International Capital Corp. Ltd. Asia Pacific Event Driven Arbitrage Likely Dominated Recent Stock Movement.pdf

MS-中国互联网：AI 广告：从注意力到转化成果 China Internet AI Advertising：From Attention to Outcomes.pdf

总结

    • We calculate 2025 advertising revenue divided by the annual DAU time pool for the marketing density. Where a platform’s disclosed revenue scope includes commissions, we mark the bubble with a dashed outline.
  2. Taobao/Tmall's net spend score improved from -3 in 2024 to +55 in Clearest transaction-led beneficiary: closed-loop outcome data supports
  3. AI-tool users report c.10ppt higher perceived ROI. CMR recovery and longer-term commission and merchant-workflow upside.
  4. Meituan's net spend score rose from +9 in 2024 to +55 in 2026, Transaction closure—not standalone AI mindshare—is the moat;
  5. Exhibit 10: Improvements in content generation, ROI and Exhibit 11: AI is already affecting marketing expenditure across
  6. Improve content produc a t s io s n e t e s f t f e ic s i t e e n d cy / increase number of 64% Creative production spend 80%
    • We calculate 2025 advertising revenue divided by the average daily DAU time pool for the marketing density.Where a platform’s disclosed revenue scope includes commissions, we mark the bubble with a dashed outline.
  8. Exhibit 21: 72% report unchanged total ad dollars but internal Exhibit 22: AI has made cross-platform media allocation more

预览

MS-中国互联网：AI 广告：从注意力到转化成果 China Internet AI Advertising：From Attention to Outcomes.pdf

MS-中国建材｜亚太 中国调研纪要 —— 第二天 China Materials Asia Pacific China Trip Takeaways – Day 2.pdf

总结

  1. 4FQGXHm2qWdVfV8O9R9PsQrRnPtNkPnNzQeRpPwPbRoMpPMYqMmRNZmMpR

预览

MS-中国建材｜亚太 中国调研纪要 —— 第二天 China Materials Asia Pacific China Trip Takeaways – Day 2.pdf

MS-中国龙源电力集团｜亚太 缺乏催化因素维持等权重评级 China Longyuan Power Group Asia Pacific Stay EW on lack of catalysts.pdf

总结

    1. We lower Longyuan-H's PT to HK$6.00 and Longyuan-A's PT to Rmb14.60, down Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with
  2. Remain EW on Longyuan A/H: A lthough a P/B valuation A/H of 1.6x/0.5x i n 2027E Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley
  3. assume Longyuan's wind utilization is down 12% yoy in FY26 (it was down 10.9% yoy For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
  4. DCF 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E 2036E 2037E 2038E 2039E 2040E 2041E 2042E 2043E 2044E 2045E 2046E 2047E 2048E 2049E 2050E
  5. Pre-tax profit 6,926 8,290 9,554 10,355 11,634 11,518 11,841 12,190 12,721 13,108 13,433 13,703 14,067 14,547 14,781 15,156 12,786 11,918 1 0,077 9,658 10,044 1 0,440 1 0,877 10,876
    • Depreciation 14,944 15,999 16,643 17,767 18,795 19,174 19,541 19,923 20,305 20,687 21,070 21,454 21,838 22,222 22,606 22,991 23,376 23,679 2 3,983 24,286 2 4,589 2 4,893 2 5,197 25,501
    • Less adjusted taxes (1,571) (1,927) (2,273) (2,517) (2,889) (2,917) (3,058) (3,210) (3,148) (3,245) (3,326) (3,394) (3,485) (3,605) (3,663) (3,757) (3,165) (2,948) (2,487) (2,383) (2,479) (2,578) (2,687) (2,687)
  8. +/- Interest Expense/ (Income) 3,321 3,370 3,379 3,361 3,179 2,877 2,426 1,974 1,512 1,029 536 31 (485) (939) (1,408) (1,886) (231) (248) 9 5 (131) (362) (599) (841) (1,089)

预览

MS-中国龙源电力集团｜亚太 缺乏催化因素维持等权重评级 China Longyuan Power Group Asia Pacific Stay EW on lack of catalysts.pdf

MS-中国 AI 路径：消费 AI：超越聊天机器人竞赛 China's AI Path：Consumer AI Beyond the Chatbot Race.pdf

总结

  1. case fit. Our AlphaWise survey shows 80% weekly personal AI usage in China vs. Y ang.Liu@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1911
  2. free access is coupled with ecosystem distribution, CNY campaigns and a broader T om.Tang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1860
  3. Exhibit 8: Multi-homing deepened materially: Number of AI Exhibit 9: AI adoption is broadening across entry points: Past-
  4. Short-form content generation: email, ad copy, social post, bullet summary Easy 300–3k 200–1.5k Rmb 0.0014–0.011 88.89–740.7
  5. Monetization 3 (not yet clear, potentially subscriptions 4 (natural monetization within the 3 (hardware premium, cloud-service
  6. Advertising formula Ad-exposed DAU x queries/day x commercial query mix x monetized commercial query rate x ad units per monetized commercial query x 365 x eCPM / 1,000.
  7. 3 4 5 0 0 0 % % % 2 1 7 0 % % 2 8 9 % % 2 9 8 % % 2 8 7 % % 2 7 6 % % 2 9 8 % % 46% 48% R M W a o e r e n e k t ly h ly ly 2 3 4 0 0 0 % % % 27% 28% 29% 26% 27% 28% 32% 34% R M W a o e r e n e k t ly h ly ly
  8. Exhibit 33: 64% used five or more AI tools in the past month Exhibit 34: Multi-tool usage remains driven by differentiated

预览

MS-中国 AI 路径：消费 AI：超越聊天机器人竞赛 China's AI Path：Consumer AI Beyond the Chatbot Race.pdf

MS-中国 AI 之路：从 8.5 万亿资本开支到 3 倍算力 China's AI Path From Rmb8.5tr Capex to 3x Compute.pdf

总结

  1. commitments for long-term visibility, and 4) by investing upstream and downstream. companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,
  2. fundraising over the next f ive years to support Rmb2.0tr of offshore capex. Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley
  3. ROIC (2.5-3 years payback) for IaaS/MaaS (1P) and 30% (~2 years payback) for MaaS refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this
  4. Exhibit 14: China AI power demand to increase to 13GW in Exhibit 15: Third-party datacenter orders to increase to 11GW in
  5. This report references U.S. Executive Order 14032 and/or entities or securities that are designated thereunder. U.S. persons may be
  6. Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the Monetary
  7. and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financial
  8. services license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financial

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MS-中国 AI 之路：从 8.5 万亿资本开支到 3 倍算力 China's AI Path From Rmb8.5tr Capex to 3x Compute.pdf

MS-中国WFE：更强劲、更持久-20260917.pdf

总结

  1. WACC of 10.1%, derived from a risk-free rate of 2.0%, beta of 1.35 and a market risk appear likely to maintain high capex in 2026

    1. 45% revenue CAGR in 2025-28, fueled 1) 30% revenue CAGR in 2025-28, thanks to 1) <15% revenue CAGR in 2025-28, owing to

  3. 45% in 2026, thanks to scale effects and the gross margin to grow slightly through 2026- slower-than-expected R&D and slower cost
  4. Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions: a 10.1% WACC (beta 1.35, risk-free rate ▪We are positive on 2026 WFE demand
  5. 2%, and cost of equity of 6%), a medium-term growth rate of 13%, and a terminal growth rate from China given rising capex investments
  6. 5/5 24 Month 5/5 3 Month e in x c p o o n s s u is r t e e s n h t e w ld it w h i o th r m M a S y P n B o . t In r f e o fl rm ec a t t i b o r n o a m d a e y r b m e arket EPS 1.90 2.82
  7. Base case, residual income model. We assume a 6.2% cost of equity, a medium-term growth ▪We remain positive on AMEC's new orders
  8. rate of 14% and a terminal growth rate of 4.0%. We believe these assumptions are justified, signed with both advanced-node and

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MS-中国WFE：更强劲、更持久-20260917.pdf

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