#外资研报

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附件总结 MS-美国经济周报：描绘AI的影响，从资本支出到消费.pdf

Exhibit 2: The contribution of AI investment to growth in real Exhibit 3: Decomposing the contribution of AI-only spending to
Exhibit 10: US exports of crude oil trended down over the past Exhibit 11: US exports of oil decelerated following the signing of
Source: US Census, US HTS, USITC, Morgan Stanley Research. The "Up to May'26" estimate is the average Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 15: Cash withdrawals from the DHS - CBP, as a proxy Tariff refunds represent cash returned to importers when customs
in v e n t o r y in v e s t m e n t t h a n w e d o . T h e N e w Y o r k F e d n o w c a s t m o v e d u p a t e n t h t o 2 .3 % ,
it s s e r v ic e s e s t im a t e , a t 4 .5 % , is 1 ½ p o in t a b o v e o u r s . It a ls o a llo w s fo r m u c h fa s t e r
o u r s , w a s u n c h a n g e d a t 4 .7 % . It s g o o d s c o n s u m p t io n e s t im a t e , a t 2 .3 % , is 2 ¼ p o in t s a b o v e
O u r 3 Q G D P t r a c k in g fe ll a t e n t h t o 2 .0 % in t h e la t e s t w e e k a f t e r e x is t in g h o m e s a le s

MS-美中峰会前瞻：预期与影响-20260917.pdf

The real focal point is November 10, when the BIS Affiliates Rule suspension, Exhibit 1 : US-China Relations Framework,
China's rare-earth pause, and the 178-item Section 301 exclusion list expire based on scenarios for US policy approach
• +~5% upside, similar to the May 2025 Geneva-talk playbook (MSCI China • Limited/muted index impact — "good enough" for markets already holding low
• Mostly sideways, limited downside — expectations already low, limited • Correction, but muted vs. April 2025 — we would not expect more than a ~10% index-
Exhibit 3: US-China Relations Framework, based on scenarios for US policy approach (offense = proactive investments and
Exhibit 7: Asia Pacific Thematic Ranking - Economic Security & AI Sovereignty rank 6th and 7th, respectively, supported by strong
(Core/Significant Materiality) Rank Sales EPS Sales Net Inc ERB 2028 P/E P/Sales P/E P/Sales Upside to Upside to Bull Bear 13w/52w Rank
Economic Security & Reindustrialization 6 8.9% 16.5% 3.3% 5.5% 6.3% 15.5% 16.2x 1.7x 76% 85% 23% 61% 2.6 14.3% 8.1

MS-宁德时代（300750.SZ）：担忧似乎被夸大.pdf

price performance than what we have observed since April. Instead, the sustained EPS, basic (Rmb)* 15.53 20.73 27.17 33.37
earnings d ecline next year, which contrast with management's guidance for >25% investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s e ith e r p ro v id e d o r is p ro v id in g n o n -in v e stm e n t b a n k in g , se c u ritie s-re la te d se rv ic e s to a n d /o r in th e p a st h a s e n te re d in to a n a g re e m e n t to p ro v id e
W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s p ro v id e d o r is p ro v id in g in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s to , o r h a s a n in v e stm e n t b a n k in g c lie n t re la tio n sh ip w ith , th e fo llo w in g c o m p a n y : C h in a
W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s re c e iv e d c o m p e n sa tio n fo r p ro d u c ts a n d se rv ic e s o th e r th a n in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s fro m C h in a P e tro le u m & C h e m ic a l C o rp ., C N O O C ,
In th e n e x t 3 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y e x p e c ts to re c e iv e o r in te n d s to se e k c o m p e n sa tio n fo r in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s fro m C h in a P e tro le u m & C h e m ic a l C o rp ., C N O O C , C o n te m p o ra ry
W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s re c e iv e d c o m p e n sa tio n fo r in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s fro m C o n te m p o ra ry A m p e re x T e c h n o lo g y C o . L td ..
W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y m a n a g e d o r c o -m a n a g e d a p u b lic o ffe rin g (o r 14 4 A o ffe rin g ) o f se c u ritie s o f C o n te m p o ra ry A m p e re x T e c h n o lo g y C o . L td ..

MS-宁德时代（300750.SZ）——电池反内卷升级.pdf

0JOEZFo4tZ8YfV9PbP8OnPnNnPpRkPnNuNjMoPqR8OqRtMMYrNoPNZsOuN

MS-全球科技：MLCC：AI 与数据中心高附加值产品需求持续增长 Global Technology MLCC Continued Demand Growth for High-Value-added Products for AI & Data Centers.pdf

benefit particularly strongly from expanding demand for AI server/DC MLCCs. C indy.Huang@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2915
player at 41% global MLCC market share in 2025) and SEMCO (#2 at 23%). We view companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,
DCF-based PT from ¥12,500 to ¥11,000, mainly reflecting an increase in our DCF refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this
33), but expect it to take longer than Murata & SEMCO to benefit from AI server/ with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member
Base Case 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e
Total worldwide shipment quantity (Bil pcs) 1,504 1,480 1,640 2,050 2,029 2,167 2,293 2,605 2,735 3,080 3,480 3,828 3,254 3,695 4,446 3,572 3,187 3,386 3,773 4,037 4,360 4,709 5,086 5,493 5,932
YoY (%) 14.9% -1.6% 10.8% 24.9% -1.0% 6.8% 5.8% 13.6% 5.0% 12.6% 13.0% 10.0% -15.0% 13.5% 20.3% -19.7% -10.8% 6.2% 11.4% 7.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
CAGR (1991~) 14.9% 13.8% 13.7% 14.2% 13.4% 13.1% 12.8% 12.8% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.4% 11.3% 11.4% 11.6% 10.5% 9.7% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 9.6% 9.5% 9.5% 9.4% 9.4%

MS-日本电子元件行业：7月电容器产出（METI数据）——MLCC定价迎来转折点.pdf

+1.3% MoM), with ASP of ¥20.2 (+3.8% YoY, +2.0% MoM). In US$ terms, production companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,
while ASP of 12.45¢ was –5.9% YoY from 13.23¢ and +1.0% MoM from 12.32¢. Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley
stats published by MOF on August 31 show Jul MLCC export value at ¥85.4bn refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this
0.498¢ rose 9.5% YoY from 0.455¢ but declined 1.0% MoM from 0.503¢. and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Base Case 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e
Total worldwide shipment quantity (Bil pcs) 1,504 1,480 1,640 2,050 2,029 2,167 2,293 2,605 2,735 3,080 3,480 3,828 3,254 3,695 4,446 3,572 3,187 3,386 3,773 4,037 4,360 4,709 5,086 5,493 5,932
YoY (%) 14.9% -1.6% 10.8% 24.9% -1.0% 6.8% 5.8% 13.6% 5.0% 12.6% 13.0% 10.0% -15.0% 13.5% 20.3% -19.7% -10.8% 6.2% 11.4% 7.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
CAGR (1991~) 14.9% 13.8% 13.7% 14.2% 13.4% 13.1% 12.8% 12.8% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.4% 11.3% 11.4% 11.6% 10.5% 9.7% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 9.6% 9.5% 9.5% 9.4% 9.4%

MS-康龙化成（3759.HK）：全球医疗健康大会反馈要点.pdf

set to double from its current 1,200 cubic meters to 2,400 cubic meters by 2028. Leverage (EOP) (%) 28.5 18.3 3.9 (13.4)
4,000 cubic meters by the end of 2025 (+60% YoY). Besides Lilly's orforglipron, § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
se rv ic e s o r h a s a c lie n t re la tio n sh ip w ith th e fo llo w in g c o m p a n y : 3 S B io , A b b isk o C a y m a n L td , A d ic o n H o ld in g s L td , A k e so , In c., A n g e la lig n T e c h n o lo g y In c, D u a lity B io th e ra p e u tic s In c, H U T C H M E D
W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s e ith e r p ro v id e d o r is p ro v id in g n o n -in v e stm e n t b a n k in g , se c u ritie s-re la te d se rv ic e s to a n d /o r in th e p a st h a s e n te re d in to a n a g re e m e n t to p ro v id e
W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s p ro v id e d o r is p ro v id in g in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s to , o r h a s a n in v e stm e n t b a n k in g c lie n t re la tio n sh ip w ith , th e fo llo w in g c o m p a n y : 3 S B io ,
W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s re c e iv e d c o m p e n sa tio n fo r p ro d u c ts a n d se rv ic e s o th e r th a n in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s fro m 3 S B io , A d ic o n H o ld in g s L td , A n g e la lig n T e c h n o lo g y
In th e n e x t 3 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y e x p e c ts to re c e iv e o r in te n d s to se e k c o m p e n sa tio n fo r in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s fro m 3 S B io , A b b isk o C a y m a n L td , A d ic o n H o ld in g s L td , A ie r E y e H o sp ita l
W ith in th e la st 12 m o n th s, M o rg a n S ta n le y h a s re c e iv e d c o m p e n sa tio n fo r in v e stm e n t b a n k in g se rv ic e s fro m 3 S B io , H a n so h P h a rm a c e u tic a l G ro u p C o L td , In n o v e n t B io lo g ic s In c, In silic o M e d ic in e ,