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附件总结 UBS-内存通胀压制需求-下调2027年PC出货量预测-20260922.pdf

  1. Source: UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset) . Note: Wave 4-5 calculations Source: UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset) . Note: Wave 4-5 calculations
  2. 1, 9 00 50 0 + 9 1 44 2% +2 9 0 67 % +1 93 7 0 % + 9 1 5 8 0 % +1 9 6 58 % +1 9 8 7 % 0 1 9 0, , 0 5 0 00 0 + 9 2 ,5 0 6 % 2 9 + , 1 1 4 91 % + 9 1 ,1 5 7 % 3 + 9 1 ,2 6 3 % 8
  3. ('000 Units)Q126A Q226A Jul (A) Aug (A)Aug (E) Prior Sep (E) Q326E Q326E PriorQ3 Comment Q426E 2024 2025 2026E 2026E Prior 2026 comment
  4. QoQ/MoM Q126A Q226A Jul (A) Aug (A)Aug (E) Prior Sep (E) Q326E Q326E PriorQ3 Comment Q426E 2024 2025 2026E 2026E Prior 2026 comment
  5. YoY Q126A Q226A Jul (A) Aug (A)Aug (E) Prior Sep (E) Q326E Q326E PriorQ3 Comment Q426E 2024 2025 2026E 2026E Prior 2026 comment
  6. 701Q 703Q 801Q 803Q 901Q 903Q 011Q 013Q 111Q 113Q 211Q 213Q 311Q 313Q 411Q 413Q 511Q 513Q 611Q 613Q 711Q 713Q 811Q 813Q 911Q 913Q 021Q 023Q 121Q 123Q 221Q 223Q 321Q 323Q 421Q 423Q 521Q 523Q E621Q E623Q 701Q 703Q 801Q 803Q 901Q 903Q 011Q 013Q 111Q 113Q 211Q 213Q 311Q 313Q 411Q 413Q 511Q 513Q 611Q 613Q 711Q 713Q 811Q 813Q 911Q 913Q 021Q 023Q 121Q 123Q 221Q 223Q 321Q 323Q 421Q 423Q 521Q 523Q E621Q E623Q
  7. 41-naJ 41-rpA 41-luJ 41-tcO 51-naJ 51-rpA 51-luJ 51-tcO 61-naJ 61-rpA 61-luJ 61-tcO 71-naJ 71-rpA 71-luJ 71-tcO 81-naJ 81-rpA 81-luJ 81-tcO 91-naJ 91-rpA 91-luJ 91-tcO 02-naJ 02-rpA 02-luJ 02-tcO 12-naJ 12-rpA 12-luJ 12-tcO 22-naJ 22-rpA 22-luJ 22-tcO 32-naJ 32-rpA 32-luJ 32-tcO 42-naJ 42-rpA 42-luJ 42-tcO 52-naJ 52-rpA 52-luJ 52-tcO 62-naJ 62-rpA 62-luJ 41-naJ 41-rpA 41-luJ 41-tcO 51-naJ 51-rpA 51-luJ 51-tcO 61-naJ 61-rpA 61-luJ 61-tcO 71-naJ 71-rpA 71-luJ 71-tcO 81-naJ 81-rpA 81-luJ 81-tcO 91-naJ 91-rpA 91-luJ 91-tcO 02-naJ 02-rpA 02-luJ 02-tcO 12-naJ 12-rpA 12-luJ 12-tcO 22-naJ 22-rpA 22-luJ 22-tcO 32-naJ 32-rpA 32-luJ 32-tcO 42-naJ 42-rpA 42-luJ 42-tcO 52-naJ 52-rpA 52-luJ 52-tcO 62-naJ 62-rpA 62-luJ
  8. Weighted ODM coverage index price (LHS) Weighted PC/MB Brand Coverage PE (RHS) +1 standard dev. Avg. PE -1 standard dev. Weighted Component coverage index price (LHS) Weighted Component Coverage PE (RHS) +1 standard dev. Avg. PE -1 standard dev.

UBS-习特会：广泛稳定格局延续；中欧紧张局势升温-20260921.pdf

  1. China officially announced President Xi would make an official state visit to the US on Economist
  2. 23-25 September. It has been almost ten years since a Chinese president made a state S1460516050002
  3. visit to the US. It has been almost a year since the two sides started the current period of
  4. ˜ There could be a ~USD 30 billion tariff reduction on non-sensitive products on
  5. tariffs based on other clauses and tensions at international meetings such as G20. They
  6. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,
  7. including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 3.
  8. Risks of multi-asset investing include but are not limited to market risk, credit risk, interest rate

高盛晨读 - 在线游戏韧性- 心动上调 - 创新药出海 - 超级炼油周期Ⅳ_ -....pdf

  1. 险等，预计随着平均⽣产成本/时间节省达到80%-90%以上可能出现更多娱乐形态i.e., 互动影院/游戏、⽆限剧集和虚拟伴侣等）。
  2. 我们在三个⽉展望期内维持跨资产中性⽴场，在12个⽉展望期内保持适度亲⻛险偏好，具体配置为：超配股票，对债券、⼤宗商品和现⾦持中性态度，低配信⽤债。
  3. 亚洲经济分析：韩国——追踪企业现⾦状况与⾦融市场资⾦流向…Asia Economics Analyst: Korea – Tracking Corporate Cash and Financial-market Flows
  4. 天然⽓评论：Gastech⼤会情绪乐观，短期LNG价格看涨…Natural Gas Comment: Gastech Sentiment Bullish Near-Term LNG Prices
  5. 与部分投资者客户不同——后者认为近期美国10年期国债收益率上升以及汽油和柴油价格上涨或将推动伊朗冲突得到解决——我们所接触的企业客户普遍预期现状将
  6. 这⼀价格上⾏预期与我们的观点⼀致：若今冬波斯湾LNG出⼝未能出现实质性改善，在冬季⽓温处于平均⽔平的前提下，TTF和JKM价格到年底很可能分别达到105欧
  7. 全球⽯油：炼油超级周期（第四部分）：系统承压期延⻓…Global Oil – The Refining Super Cycle (Part 4): A System Stretched for Longer
  8. 中国耐⽤消费品: 家电⾏业追踪: 2026年8⽉：尽管内销出货疲软，国内终端需求因基数⾛低⽽进⼀步改善，出⼝具有韧性…China Consumer Durables: Appliance Track

SemiAnalysis-推理的计算与数据移动：MoE模型硬件映射-20260922.pdf

  1. compute. Long initial input contexts can raise memory traffic but these rarely get to 100,000
  2. factory it is feasible to have those 72 machines all running in sync, allowing the experts in
  3. one layer to be divided up to 72 ways. If a layer of the model has 256 experts then each GPU
  4. is handling only 3 or 4 in each layer, permitting very fast complete cycling through all the
  5. While Vera Rubin 72 can crush at the mid-fill layer, which is arithmetic intense, it is not so
  6. than the incremental query, although the incremental query typically varies from 50 to 5,000
  7. attention layers. Typically 1 to 3 of the initial layers may be dense or otherwise designed to
  8. recurrent, or local attention can be lower still. A working average near 25 kB per token may

UBS-ASIC与CPU走向舞台中央-驱动CoWoS新一轮扩张-20260922.pdf

  1. also targets higher volume to ~450k units in 2027, although visibility seems lower than Associate Analyst
  2. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,
  3. Nvidia Supply Chain Build Units (k chips) Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2024 2025 2026E 2027E
  4. AMD Supply Chain Build Units (k chips) Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2024 2025 2026E 2027E
  5. Client Products Die size (mm2) Q126E Q226E Q326E Q426E 2026 demand (k) Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027 demand (k)
  6. Temporary bondingSMHNn.DE SÜSS MicroTec 1,493 € 68.1 73.9% 34.5 21.4 16.1 • Temporary bonding/debonding system
  7. Source: Company data, LSEG, UBS estimates. Share price in local currency. Note: Asian stocks priced as of 18 Sept 2026;
  8. the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS

UBS-内存成本压力将在2027年继续拖累智能手机市场-20260922.pdf

  1. downside for Android ex-Samsung smartphone unit builds into 2027, and (2) relative +1-212-713 4296
  2. and 50-60% of low-end BOM costs. We believe the current memory cycle will remain a luke.yoo@ubs.com
  3. key challenge for OEMs as (1) increasing costs continue to pressure margins, and (2) ASP +82-2-3702 8132
  4. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 198500648C) ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED
  5. 2 2 Q 1 2 2 Q 2 2 2 Q 3 2 2 Q 4 3 2 Q 1 3 2 Q 2 3 2 Q 3 3 2 Q 4 4 2 Q 1 4 2 Q 2 4 2 Q 3 4 2 Q 4 5 2 Q 1 5 2 Q 2 5 2 Q 3 5 2 Q 4 6 2 Q 1 6 2 Q 2 E 6 2 Q 3 E 6 2 Q 4 E 7 2 Q 1 E 7 2 Q 2 E 7 2 Q 3 E 7 2 Q 4 2 2 Q 1 2 2 Q 2 2 2 Q 3 2 2 Q 4 3 2 Q 1 3 2 Q 2 3 2 Q 3 3 2 Q 4 4 2 Q 1 4 2 Q 2 4 2 Q 3 4 2 Q 4 5 2 Q 1 5 2 Q 2 5 2 Q 3 5 2 Q 4 6 2 Q 1 6 2 Q 2 E 6 2 Q 3 E 6 2 Q 4 E 7 2 Q 1 E 7 2 Q 2 E 7 2 Q 3 E 7 2 Q 4
  6. Figure 4: YoY smartphone unit Sell-Through growth by Figure 5: YoY smartphone unit Sell-Through growth by
  7. 2 -n aJ 2 -b eF 2 -raM 2 -rp A 2 -yaM 2 -n u J 2 -lu J 2 -g u A 2 -p eS 2 -tcO 2 -vo N 2 -ceD 2 -n aJ 2 -b eF 2 -raM 2 -rp A 2 -yaM 2 -n u J 2 -lu J -20% -17.9% -18.4% -16.4%
  8. Smartphone volume (m) 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E 1Q28E 2Q28E 3Q28E 4Q28E 2028E

文档

UBS-内存通胀压制需求-下调2027年PC出货量预测-20260922.pdf

总结

  1. Source: UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset) . Note: Wave 4-5 calculations Source: UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset) . Note: Wave 4-5 calculations
  2. 1, 9 00 50 0 + 9 1 44 2% +2 9 0 67 % +1 93 7 0 % + 9 1 5 8 0 % +1 9 6 58 % +1 9 8 7 % 0 1 9 0, , 0 5 0 00 0 + 9 2 ,5 0 6 % 2 9 + , 1 1 4 91 % + 9 1 ,1 5 7 % 3 + 9 1 ,2 6 3 % 8
  3. ('000 Units)Q126A Q226A Jul (A) Aug (A)Aug (E) Prior Sep (E) Q326E Q326E PriorQ3 Comment Q426E 2024 2025 2026E 2026E Prior 2026 comment
  4. QoQ/MoM Q126A Q226A Jul (A) Aug (A)Aug (E) Prior Sep (E) Q326E Q326E PriorQ3 Comment Q426E 2024 2025 2026E 2026E Prior 2026 comment
  5. YoY Q126A Q226A Jul (A) Aug (A)Aug (E) Prior Sep (E) Q326E Q326E PriorQ3 Comment Q426E 2024 2025 2026E 2026E Prior 2026 comment
  6. 701Q 703Q 801Q 803Q 901Q 903Q 011Q 013Q 111Q 113Q 211Q 213Q 311Q 313Q 411Q 413Q 511Q 513Q 611Q 613Q 711Q 713Q 811Q 813Q 911Q 913Q 021Q 023Q 121Q 123Q 221Q 223Q 321Q 323Q 421Q 423Q 521Q 523Q E621Q E623Q 701Q 703Q 801Q 803Q 901Q 903Q 011Q 013Q 111Q 113Q 211Q 213Q 311Q 313Q 411Q 413Q 511Q 513Q 611Q 613Q 711Q 713Q 811Q 813Q 911Q 913Q 021Q 023Q 121Q 123Q 221Q 223Q 321Q 323Q 421Q 423Q 521Q 523Q E621Q E623Q
  7. 41-naJ 41-rpA 41-luJ 41-tcO 51-naJ 51-rpA 51-luJ 51-tcO 61-naJ 61-rpA 61-luJ 61-tcO 71-naJ 71-rpA 71-luJ 71-tcO 81-naJ 81-rpA 81-luJ 81-tcO 91-naJ 91-rpA 91-luJ 91-tcO 02-naJ 02-rpA 02-luJ 02-tcO 12-naJ 12-rpA 12-luJ 12-tcO 22-naJ 22-rpA 22-luJ 22-tcO 32-naJ 32-rpA 32-luJ 32-tcO 42-naJ 42-rpA 42-luJ 42-tcO 52-naJ 52-rpA 52-luJ 52-tcO 62-naJ 62-rpA 62-luJ 41-naJ 41-rpA 41-luJ 41-tcO 51-naJ 51-rpA 51-luJ 51-tcO 61-naJ 61-rpA 61-luJ 61-tcO 71-naJ 71-rpA 71-luJ 71-tcO 81-naJ 81-rpA 81-luJ 81-tcO 91-naJ 91-rpA 91-luJ 91-tcO 02-naJ 02-rpA 02-luJ 02-tcO 12-naJ 12-rpA 12-luJ 12-tcO 22-naJ 22-rpA 22-luJ 22-tcO 32-naJ 32-rpA 32-luJ 32-tcO 42-naJ 42-rpA 42-luJ 42-tcO 52-naJ 52-rpA 52-luJ 52-tcO 62-naJ 62-rpA 62-luJ
  8. Weighted ODM coverage index price (LHS) Weighted PC/MB Brand Coverage PE (RHS) +1 standard dev. Avg. PE -1 standard dev. Weighted Component coverage index price (LHS) Weighted Component Coverage PE (RHS) +1 standard dev. Avg. PE -1 standard dev.

预览

UBS-内存通胀压制需求-下调2027年PC出货量预测-20260922.pdf

UBS-习特会：广泛稳定格局延续；中欧紧张局势升温-20260921.pdf

总结

  1. China officially announced President Xi would make an official state visit to the US on Economist
  2. 23-25 September. It has been almost ten years since a Chinese president made a state S1460516050002
  3. visit to the US. It has been almost a year since the two sides started the current period of
  4. ˜ There could be a ~USD 30 billion tariff reduction on non-sensitive products on
  5. tariffs based on other clauses and tensions at international meetings such as G20. They
  6. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,
  7. including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 3.
  8. Risks of multi-asset investing include but are not limited to market risk, credit risk, interest rate

预览

UBS-习特会：广泛稳定格局延续；中欧紧张局势升温-20260921.pdf

大摩-智能体实战手册+20260918.pdf

预览

大摩-智能体实战手册+20260918.pdf

大摩-中国晶圆厂设备（WFE）：强势延续+20260917.pdf

预览

大摩-中国晶圆厂设备（WFE）：强势延续+20260917.pdf

大摩-中国中国晶圆厂设备：景气韧性超预期，强势周期延续+20260917.pdf

预览

大摩-中国中国晶圆厂设备：景气韧性超预期，强势周期延续+20260917.pdf

高盛晨读 - 在线游戏韧性- 心动上调 - 创新药出海 - 超级炼油周期Ⅳ_ -....pdf

总结

  1. 险等，预计随着平均⽣产成本/时间节省达到80%-90%以上可能出现更多娱乐形态i.e., 互动影院/游戏、⽆限剧集和虚拟伴侣等）。
  2. 我们在三个⽉展望期内维持跨资产中性⽴场，在12个⽉展望期内保持适度亲⻛险偏好，具体配置为：超配股票，对债券、⼤宗商品和现⾦持中性态度，低配信⽤债。
  3. 亚洲经济分析：韩国——追踪企业现⾦状况与⾦融市场资⾦流向…Asia Economics Analyst: Korea – Tracking Corporate Cash and Financial-market Flows
  4. 天然⽓评论：Gastech⼤会情绪乐观，短期LNG价格看涨…Natural Gas Comment: Gastech Sentiment Bullish Near-Term LNG Prices
  5. 与部分投资者客户不同——后者认为近期美国10年期国债收益率上升以及汽油和柴油价格上涨或将推动伊朗冲突得到解决——我们所接触的企业客户普遍预期现状将
  6. 这⼀价格上⾏预期与我们的观点⼀致：若今冬波斯湾LNG出⼝未能出现实质性改善，在冬季⽓温处于平均⽔平的前提下，TTF和JKM价格到年底很可能分别达到105欧
  7. 全球⽯油：炼油超级周期（第四部分）：系统承压期延⻓…Global Oil – The Refining Super Cycle (Part 4): A System Stretched for Longer
  8. 中国耐⽤消费品: 家电⾏业追踪: 2026年8⽉：尽管内销出货疲软，国内终端需求因基数⾛低⽽进⼀步改善，出⼝具有韧性…China Consumer Durables: Appliance Track

预览

高盛晨读 - 在线游戏韧性- 心动上调 - 创新药出海 - 超级炼油周期Ⅳ_ -....pdf

SemiAnalysis-推理的计算与数据移动：MoE模型硬件映射-20260922.pdf

总结

  1. compute. Long initial input contexts can raise memory traffic but these rarely get to 100,000
  2. factory it is feasible to have those 72 machines all running in sync, allowing the experts in
  3. one layer to be divided up to 72 ways. If a layer of the model has 256 experts then each GPU
  4. is handling only 3 or 4 in each layer, permitting very fast complete cycling through all the
  5. While Vera Rubin 72 can crush at the mid-fill layer, which is arithmetic intense, it is not so
  6. than the incremental query, although the incremental query typically varies from 50 to 5,000
  7. attention layers. Typically 1 to 3 of the initial layers may be dense or otherwise designed to
  8. recurrent, or local attention can be lower still. A working average near 25 kB per token may

预览

SemiAnalysis-推理的计算与数据移动：MoE模型硬件映射-20260922.pdf

UBS-ASIC与CPU走向舞台中央-驱动CoWoS新一轮扩张-20260922.pdf

总结

  1. also targets higher volume to ~450k units in 2027, although visibility seems lower than Associate Analyst
  2. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,
  3. Nvidia Supply Chain Build Units (k chips) Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2024 2025 2026E 2027E
  4. AMD Supply Chain Build Units (k chips) Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2024 2025 2026E 2027E
  5. Client Products Die size (mm2) Q126E Q226E Q326E Q426E 2026 demand (k) Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027 demand (k)
  6. Temporary bondingSMHNn.DE SÜSS MicroTec 1,493 € 68.1 73.9% 34.5 21.4 16.1 • Temporary bonding/debonding system
  7. Source: Company data, LSEG, UBS estimates. Share price in local currency. Note: Asian stocks priced as of 18 Sept 2026;
  8. the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS

预览

UBS-ASIC与CPU走向舞台中央-驱动CoWoS新一轮扩张-20260922.pdf

UBS-内存成本压力将在2027年继续拖累智能手机市场-20260922.pdf

总结

  1. downside for Android ex-Samsung smartphone unit builds into 2027, and (2) relative +1-212-713 4296
  2. and 50-60% of low-end BOM costs. We believe the current memory cycle will remain a luke.yoo@ubs.com
  3. key challenge for OEMs as (1) increasing costs continue to pressure margins, and (2) ASP +82-2-3702 8132
  4. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 198500648C) ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED
  5. 2 2 Q 1 2 2 Q 2 2 2 Q 3 2 2 Q 4 3 2 Q 1 3 2 Q 2 3 2 Q 3 3 2 Q 4 4 2 Q 1 4 2 Q 2 4 2 Q 3 4 2 Q 4 5 2 Q 1 5 2 Q 2 5 2 Q 3 5 2 Q 4 6 2 Q 1 6 2 Q 2 E 6 2 Q 3 E 6 2 Q 4 E 7 2 Q 1 E 7 2 Q 2 E 7 2 Q 3 E 7 2 Q 4 2 2 Q 1 2 2 Q 2 2 2 Q 3 2 2 Q 4 3 2 Q 1 3 2 Q 2 3 2 Q 3 3 2 Q 4 4 2 Q 1 4 2 Q 2 4 2 Q 3 4 2 Q 4 5 2 Q 1 5 2 Q 2 5 2 Q 3 5 2 Q 4 6 2 Q 1 6 2 Q 2 E 6 2 Q 3 E 6 2 Q 4 E 7 2 Q 1 E 7 2 Q 2 E 7 2 Q 3 E 7 2 Q 4
  6. Figure 4: YoY smartphone unit Sell-Through growth by Figure 5: YoY smartphone unit Sell-Through growth by
  7. 2 -n aJ 2 -b eF 2 -raM 2 -rp A 2 -yaM 2 -n u J 2 -lu J 2 -g u A 2 -p eS 2 -tcO 2 -vo N 2 -ceD 2 -n aJ 2 -b eF 2 -raM 2 -rp A 2 -yaM 2 -n u J 2 -lu J -20% -17.9% -18.4% -16.4%
  8. Smartphone volume (m) 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E 1Q28E 2Q28E 3Q28E 4Q28E 2028E

预览

UBS-内存成本压力将在2027年继续拖累智能手机市场-20260922.pdf

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