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#宏观 #美联储 #经济 #货...

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附件总结 【摩根大通】首席周末宏观：全球货币政策由国别分化转向全球共振：美国消费韧性存分歧，两种宏观情景下美联储加息路径与潜在金融风险研判 260919.mp3

  1. growth rate central banks energy Price consumer spendings Price shocks energy shock 关注公众号 domestic factors S. U. hiking cycles cutting cycle inflation pressures core pressures economist forecasts 公众号思维
  2. 本次讨论集中于经济预测与当前经济面临的挑战，特别是能源价格飙升对经济增长的影响，以及财政刺激政策的作用和美联储可能的货币政策调整。
  3. 同时，触及了美联储和其他主要银行采取紧缩措施应对通胀的行动，以及全球宏观经济不确定性，包括能源、食品和科技价格波动对全球经济增长和通胀预期的影响。
  4. 对话围绕全球通胀压力展开，讨论了能源价格、核心商品通胀、金融条件及劳动力市场等多方面因素对通胀的影响。
  5. 对话还涉及美联储政策调整的预期，认为可能需要加息3到4次以应对通胀压力，同时指出经济增长的不可持续性和未来可能的金融事件风险。
  6. 发言人1：The shift in perceptions of risk indicated by the actions of the Fed and other central banks is the increased confidence around growth resilience, the reduced concern about persistent inflation, and the view that policy stances are not as accommodative as they were previously.
  7. 发言人1：The potential impact of the macro economy being disrupted by financial events is that it could validate the idea of significant policy adjustments, as suggested by market surprises.
  8. 发言人1：The divergences in forecasts among central banks reflect that domestic considerations are being driven primarily by domestic outcomes, while there is a common set of global factors that have generated more synchronization in the past and could lead to revisions in forecasts.

【高盛】周末宏观：美联储加息不及市场鹰派，美国经济两极分化，AI、美债、原油、欧英央行与新兴市场全维度研判 260919.mp3

  1. 此外，会议讨论了从能源行业到货币政策、新兴市场债券市场的广泛议题，包括对美联储和其他央行加息的评估、欧洲高能源价格的影响、英国央行的政策决定、以及新兴市场债券和货币面临的挑战与投资机会，如巴西和土耳其，尽管存在风险。
  2. 然而，投资者对AI故事的未来路径仍持谨慎态度，重点关注消费者个人助手及企业价值驱动的软件层。
  3. 对话围绕投资银行视角下的原油与黄金市场展开，讨论了原油价格可能因能源基础设施受损而上升至125美元的风险，以及通过增加对精炼油产品长期暴露来对冲风险的策略。
  4. 30:05 欧洲能源价格飙升对经济增长与通胀的影响及ECB政策展望
  5. 若能源价格继续上涨，可能需要进一步加息以应对通胀，但需警惕价格过快上涨对经济增长的负面影响。
  6. 讨论了市场中高收益投资与美元趋势之间的关系，指出在强劲名义经济增长背景下，持有高收益资产和商品出口国可能更为有利，而低收益、需弱美元环境的市场则面临较大风险。
  7. 在能源价格对欧洲经济的影响上，虽然能源价格上涨，但他预计欧洲通胀仅略有上升，核心通胀率稳定，经济增长预测有所下调，主要由于能源价格的不确定性。
  8. 发言人1：Rob does not see the Federal Reserve's path into 2023 as a 'hawkish' hike. He believes the market overread the press conference, and the dot plot suggests a few rate increases, not a 'hawkish' hike. He indicates the potential for the fed funds rate to rise to around four and a quarter percent.

【高盛】周末宏观：美联储加息不及市场鹰派，美国经济两极分化，AI、美债、原油、欧英央行与新兴市场全维度研判 260919_导读.docx

  1. 此外，会议讨论了从能源行业到货币政策、新兴市场债券市场的广泛议题，包括对美联储和其他央行加息的评估、欧洲高能源价格的影响、英国央行的政策决定、以及新兴市场债券和货币面临的挑战与投资机会，如巴西和土耳其，尽管存在风险。
  2. 然而，投资者对AI故事的未来路径仍持谨慎态度，重点关注消费者个人助手及企业价值驱动的软件层。
  3. 对话围绕投资银行视角下的原油与黄金市场展开，讨论了原油价格可能因能源基础设施受损而上升至125美元的风险，以及通过增加对精炼油产品长期暴露来对冲风险的策略。
  4. 30:05 欧洲能源价格飙升对经济增长与通胀的影响及ECB政策展望
  5. 若能源价格继续上涨，可能需要进一步加息以应对通胀，但需警惕价格过快上涨对经济增长的负面影响。
  6. 讨论了市场中高收益投资与美元趋势之间的关系，指出在强劲名义经济增长背景下，持有高收益资产和商品出口国可能更为有利，而低收益、需弱美元环境的市场则面临较大风险。
  7. 在能源价格对欧洲经济的影响上，虽然能源价格上涨，但他预计欧洲通胀仅略有上升，核心通胀率稳定，经济增长预测有所下调，主要由于能源价格的不确定性。
  8. 发言人1：Rob does not see the Federal Reserve's path into 2023 as a 'hawkish' hike. He believes the market overread the press conference, and the dot plot suggests a few rate increases, not a 'hawkish' hike. He indicates the potential for the fed funds rate to rise to around four and a quarter percent.

【高盛】周末宏观：美联储加息不及市场鹰派，美国经济两极分化，AI、美债、原油、欧英央行与新兴市场全维度研判 260919_原文.docx

  1. Hi, and welcome to the GS week micro call, adam croop hosting this week with the peaceful ord earlier by my partner lesson from investment banking. A real pleasure to welcome back rob company this week.
  2. Rope is the vice chairman, carbon sex, former governor of the dallas fed, someone with pretty on rival insights into the new workings of the fed on the committee and we asking for his takeaway from last week where and see his thoughts on the fed rejections into year and and twenty seven and his observations on the real economy and on AI adoption in U. S. corporate.
  3. We then have Andrew love burke from U. S. Inflation, trading on inflation in term premium in the us. Curve and whether a credible fed that is prioritizing its inflation monday tes can provide a baLance to the london p cohn TM, T spec sales thank gives his taking away take away from the GS community, pia texas, and discuss is how AI regulation could impact valuations in this section we have done, driven with our latest analysts of the all marking and right to have risks are staying on the E, C, B and bank of england policy meetings last week.
  4. And finally, viti machine and wraps IT altogether with some insights and thoughts on the macro opportunity sets post fed as always, just render if you are not G, S, clients or you are, remember with the press, this call is not for you. Please do hung up night. great.
  5. Just figure today as mention rock caplin by chairman golden sex and former president of the das fed rob. Thank you so much for join us this weekend on the weekend micro o call. The first of all, delvin the fed last week market deceived that delivery is a hawk kish hike.
  6. Uh, the dot plot suggested that the medium expectation around the table is for a including yesterday visit for a couple of rate increases. Uh, I getting the fed funds rate to more like four, four and and a quarter is some around the table, are hoping for a third, but I would call that pretty mute IT.
  7. And so um we're talking plus remind us fifty basis points. And in warsaw press conference, he did a much Better job explaining the meeting, explaining and how is thinking uh but the market over read him as being hawkish, I don't think is as hawkish as the market red. And the reason I say that in particular is the two year and the three year, the two years, an example, god, as high as low for seventies.
  8. metres. Therefore, the key risk for this hundred and twenty five plus still that you talked about, he sustained damage to energy infrastructure. Cw, 请关注公众号思维纪要社，更多纪要请加V西安20210130。

【摩根大通】首席周末宏观：全球货币政策由国别分化转向全球共振：美国消费韧性存分歧，两种宏观情景下美联储加息路径与潜在金融风险研判 260919_导读.docx

  1. growth rate central banks energy Price consumer spendings Price shocks energy shock 关注公众号 domestic factors S. U. hiking cycles cutting cycle inflation pressures core pressures economist forecasts 公众号思维
  2. 本次讨论集中于经济预测与当前经济面临的挑战，特别是能源价格飙升对经济增长的影响，以及财政刺激政策的作用和美联储可能的货币政策调整。
  3. 同时，触及了美联储和其他主要银行采取紧缩措施应对通胀的行动，以及全球宏观经济不确定性，包括能源、食品和科技价格波动对全球经济增长和通胀预期的影响。
  4. 对话围绕全球通胀压力展开，讨论了能源价格、核心商品通胀、金融条件及劳动力市场等多方面因素对通胀的影响。
  5. 对话还涉及美联储政策调整的预期，认为可能需要加息3到4次以应对通胀压力，同时指出经济增长的不可持续性和未来可能的金融事件风险。
  6. 发言人1：The shift in perceptions of risk indicated by the actions of the Fed and other central banks is the increased confidence around growth resilience, the reduced concern about persistent inflation, and the view that policy stances are not as accommodative as they were previously.
  7. 发言人1：The potential impact of the macro economy being disrupted by financial events is that it could validate the idea of significant policy adjustments, as suggested by market surprises.
  8. 发言人1：The divergences in forecasts among central banks reflect that domestic considerations are being driven primarily by domestic outcomes, while there is a common set of global factors that have generated more synchronization in the past and could lead to revisions in forecasts.

【摩根大通】首席周末宏观：全球货币政策由国别分化转向全球共振：美国消费韧性存分歧，两种宏观情景下美联储加息路径与潜在金融风险研判 260919_原文.docx

  1. Welcome to the JP. Morgan weekender. I'm Bruce gasman and with me this week, is joe often a hey, buff of where are you doing?
  2. We're not going into that usage of the world to mess which we were just arguing for five minutes about. But to actually get to something that's exactly reasonable to talk about, I guess we will start with the idea that we gotten move in on the policy side. And he lets just note that the fed today, this week tighten for the first time and in over three years.
  3. And I guess what I animals yet we want to get into that. I guess from my point of view, the point to make more broadly here is that when you look at what the fed is telling us and you look at what other several banks are doing, I think they're validating this idea we've been pushing that is a fairly broad uh, shift going on in in perceptions of risk. Uh, the impatients around persistent inflation, the more confidence around growth resilience and the concern that policy stances are not a accommodative, the is are all displayed not just in what the fed was telling us in how it's forecasts eoe, but it's also in the other central banks.
  4. You know to me, what I think is most on my mind right now is, you know, the idea that what we're seeing in the macro economy, if it's not going to get disrupted by energy, if we're going to get disrupted by a financial event, I think is gonna validate what market is surprising, in which is AA significant policy adjustment. You know, as we wrote in a piece this week, the tailor rule save roughly hundred basis points for the D. M.
  5. And I think that not a bad place to be sort of setting our sites. But what's been more of my mind in the last week or so thinking about this is the idea that our forecasts and our tailor or estimates don't really have a synchronization. They have a lot of divergence built into them.
  6. And I think that divergence, which is also been in our economist forecasts, um reflects the idea that the domestic. Considerations are basically being driven primarily, if not exclusively, by domestic um outcomes. And what i'm increasingly thinking is that there is a common set of factors which we saw obviously over the twenty one to twenty four that generated more synching ization that is started to build here that we're not at incorporating in our individual a country forecast.
  7. That's why some of the sure where are seeing is not reflected in our bank of england, our street bank, our back canada and a large red number of vm central banks. And that, that has a good chance of getting um reflected in revisions, which I think we're starting to actually see in our team um as some of the dynamics around global forces that are both set to add to inflation and boost to growth get reflected. So that kind of on my mind on that and an overall thing there is the more specific issues around what we've seen from the fed, B, O, J.
  8. That's not the way the economy move wasn't the only thing I mentioned, Bruce. No, you请关注公众号思维纪要社，更多纪要请加V西安20210130。

音频总结

【摩根大通】首席周末宏观：全球货币政策由国别分化转向全球共振：美国消费韧性存分歧，两种宏观情景下美联储加息路径与潜在金融风险研判 260919.mp3

  1. growth rate central banks energy Price consumer spendings Price shocks energy shock 关注公众号 domestic factors S. U. hiking cycles cutting cycle inflation pressures core pressures economist forecasts 公众号思维
  2. 本次讨论集中于经济预测与当前经济面临的挑战，特别是能源价格飙升对经济增长的影响，以及财政刺激政策的作用和美联储可能的货币政策调整。
  3. 同时，触及了美联储和其他主要银行采取紧缩措施应对通胀的行动，以及全球宏观经济不确定性，包括能源、食品和科技价格波动对全球经济增长和通胀预期的影响。
  4. 对话围绕全球通胀压力展开，讨论了能源价格、核心商品通胀、金融条件及劳动力市场等多方面因素对通胀的影响。
  5. 对话还涉及美联储政策调整的预期，认为可能需要加息3到4次以应对通胀压力，同时指出经济增长的不可持续性和未来可能的金融事件风险。
  6. 发言人1：The shift in perceptions of risk indicated by the actions of the Fed and other central banks is the increased confidence around growth resilience, the reduced concern about persistent inflation, and the view that policy stances are not as accommodative as they were previously.
  7. 发言人1：The potential impact of the macro economy being disrupted by financial events is that it could validate the idea of significant policy adjustments, as suggested by market surprises.
  8. 发言人1：The divergences in forecasts among central banks reflect that domestic considerations are being driven primarily by domestic outcomes, while there is a common set of global factors that have generated more synchronization in the past and could lead to revisions in forecasts.

【高盛】周末宏观：美联储加息不及市场鹰派，美国经济两极分化，AI、美债、原油、欧英央行与新兴市场全维度研判 260919.mp3

  1. 此外，会议讨论了从能源行业到货币政策、新兴市场债券市场的广泛议题，包括对美联储和其他央行加息的评估、欧洲高能源价格的影响、英国央行的政策决定、以及新兴市场债券和货币面临的挑战与投资机会，如巴西和土耳其，尽管存在风险。
  2. 然而，投资者对AI故事的未来路径仍持谨慎态度，重点关注消费者个人助手及企业价值驱动的软件层。
  3. 对话围绕投资银行视角下的原油与黄金市场展开，讨论了原油价格可能因能源基础设施受损而上升至125美元的风险，以及通过增加对精炼油产品长期暴露来对冲风险的策略。
  4. 30:05 欧洲能源价格飙升对经济增长与通胀的影响及ECB政策展望
  5. 若能源价格继续上涨，可能需要进一步加息以应对通胀，但需警惕价格过快上涨对经济增长的负面影响。
  6. 讨论了市场中高收益投资与美元趋势之间的关系，指出在强劲名义经济增长背景下，持有高收益资产和商品出口国可能更为有利，而低收益、需弱美元环境的市场则面临较大风险。
  7. 在能源价格对欧洲经济的影响上，虽然能源价格上涨，但他预计欧洲通胀仅略有上升，核心通胀率稳定，经济增长预测有所下调，主要由于能源价格的不确定性。
  8. 发言人1：Rob does not see the Federal Reserve's path into 2023 as a 'hawkish' hike. He believes the market overread the press conference, and the dot plot suggests a few rate increases, not a 'hawkish' hike. He indicates the potential for the fed funds rate to rise to around four and a quarter percent.

音频

【摩根大通】首席周末宏观：全球货币政策由国别分化转向全球共振：美国消费韧性存分歧，两种宏观情景下美联储加息路径与潜在金融风险研判 260919.mp3

总结

  1. growth rate central banks energy Price consumer spendings Price shocks energy shock 关注公众号 domestic factors S. U. hiking cycles cutting cycle inflation pressures core pressures economist forecasts 公众号思维
  2. 本次讨论集中于经济预测与当前经济面临的挑战，特别是能源价格飙升对经济增长的影响，以及财政刺激政策的作用和美联储可能的货币政策调整。
  3. 同时，触及了美联储和其他主要银行采取紧缩措施应对通胀的行动，以及全球宏观经济不确定性，包括能源、食品和科技价格波动对全球经济增长和通胀预期的影响。
  4. 对话围绕全球通胀压力展开，讨论了能源价格、核心商品通胀、金融条件及劳动力市场等多方面因素对通胀的影响。
  5. 对话还涉及美联储政策调整的预期，认为可能需要加息3到4次以应对通胀压力，同时指出经济增长的不可持续性和未来可能的金融事件风险。
  6. 发言人1：The shift in perceptions of risk indicated by the actions of the Fed and other central banks is the increased confidence around growth resilience, the reduced concern about persistent inflation, and the view that policy stances are not as accommodative as they were previously.
  7. 发言人1：The potential impact of the macro economy being disrupted by financial events is that it could validate the idea of significant policy adjustments, as suggested by market surprises.
  8. 发言人1：The divergences in forecasts among central banks reflect that domestic considerations are being driven primarily by domestic outcomes, while there is a common set of global factors that have generated more synchronization in the past and could lead to revisions in forecasts.

预览

【摩根大通】首席周末宏观：全球货币政策由国别分化转向全球共振：美国消费韧性存分歧，两种宏观情景下美联储加息路径与潜在金融风险研判 260919.mp3

【高盛】周末宏观：美联储加息不及市场鹰派，美国经济两极分化，AI、美债、原油、欧英央行与新兴市场全维度研判 260919.mp3

总结

  1. 此外，会议讨论了从能源行业到货币政策、新兴市场债券市场的广泛议题，包括对美联储和其他央行加息的评估、欧洲高能源价格的影响、英国央行的政策决定、以及新兴市场债券和货币面临的挑战与投资机会，如巴西和土耳其，尽管存在风险。
  2. 然而，投资者对AI故事的未来路径仍持谨慎态度，重点关注消费者个人助手及企业价值驱动的软件层。
  3. 对话围绕投资银行视角下的原油与黄金市场展开，讨论了原油价格可能因能源基础设施受损而上升至125美元的风险，以及通过增加对精炼油产品长期暴露来对冲风险的策略。
  4. 30:05 欧洲能源价格飙升对经济增长与通胀的影响及ECB政策展望
  5. 若能源价格继续上涨，可能需要进一步加息以应对通胀，但需警惕价格过快上涨对经济增长的负面影响。
  6. 讨论了市场中高收益投资与美元趋势之间的关系，指出在强劲名义经济增长背景下，持有高收益资产和商品出口国可能更为有利，而低收益、需弱美元环境的市场则面临较大风险。
  7. 在能源价格对欧洲经济的影响上，虽然能源价格上涨，但他预计欧洲通胀仅略有上升，核心通胀率稳定，经济增长预测有所下调，主要由于能源价格的不确定性。
  8. 发言人1：Rob does not see the Federal Reserve's path into 2023 as a 'hawkish' hike. He believes the market overread the press conference, and the dot plot suggests a few rate increases, not a 'hawkish' hike. He indicates the potential for the fed funds rate to rise to around four and a quarter percent.

预览

【高盛】周末宏观：美联储加息不及市场鹰派，美国经济两极分化，AI、美债、原油、欧英央行与新兴市场全维度研判 260919.mp3

文档

【高盛】周末宏观：美联储加息不及市场鹰派，美国经济两极分化，AI、美债、原油、欧英央行与新兴市场全维度研判 260919_导读.docx

总结

  1. 此外，会议讨论了从能源行业到货币政策、新兴市场债券市场的广泛议题，包括对美联储和其他央行加息的评估、欧洲高能源价格的影响、英国央行的政策决定、以及新兴市场债券和货币面临的挑战与投资机会，如巴西和土耳其，尽管存在风险。
  2. 然而，投资者对AI故事的未来路径仍持谨慎态度，重点关注消费者个人助手及企业价值驱动的软件层。
  3. 对话围绕投资银行视角下的原油与黄金市场展开，讨论了原油价格可能因能源基础设施受损而上升至125美元的风险，以及通过增加对精炼油产品长期暴露来对冲风险的策略。
  4. 30:05 欧洲能源价格飙升对经济增长与通胀的影响及ECB政策展望
  5. 若能源价格继续上涨，可能需要进一步加息以应对通胀，但需警惕价格过快上涨对经济增长的负面影响。
  6. 讨论了市场中高收益投资与美元趋势之间的关系，指出在强劲名义经济增长背景下，持有高收益资产和商品出口国可能更为有利，而低收益、需弱美元环境的市场则面临较大风险。
  7. 在能源价格对欧洲经济的影响上，虽然能源价格上涨，但他预计欧洲通胀仅略有上升，核心通胀率稳定，经济增长预测有所下调，主要由于能源价格的不确定性。
  8. 发言人1：Rob does not see the Federal Reserve's path into 2023 as a 'hawkish' hike. He believes the market overread the press conference, and the dot plot suggests a few rate increases, not a 'hawkish' hike. He indicates the potential for the fed funds rate to rise to around four and a quarter percent.

预览

【高盛】周末宏观：美联储加息不及市场鹰派，美国经济两极分化，AI、美债、原油、欧英央行与新兴市场全维度研判 260919_导读.docx

【高盛】周末宏观：美联储加息不及市场鹰派，美国经济两极分化，AI、美债、原油、欧英央行与新兴市场全维度研判 260919_原文.docx

总结

  1. Hi, and welcome to the GS week micro call, adam croop hosting this week with the peaceful ord earlier by my partner lesson from investment banking. A real pleasure to welcome back rob company this week.
  2. Rope is the vice chairman, carbon sex, former governor of the dallas fed, someone with pretty on rival insights into the new workings of the fed on the committee and we asking for his takeaway from last week where and see his thoughts on the fed rejections into year and and twenty seven and his observations on the real economy and on AI adoption in U. S. corporate.
  3. We then have Andrew love burke from U. S. Inflation, trading on inflation in term premium in the us. Curve and whether a credible fed that is prioritizing its inflation monday tes can provide a baLance to the london p cohn TM, T spec sales thank gives his taking away take away from the GS community, pia texas, and discuss is how AI regulation could impact valuations in this section we have done, driven with our latest analysts of the all marking and right to have risks are staying on the E, C, B and bank of england policy meetings last week.
  4. And finally, viti machine and wraps IT altogether with some insights and thoughts on the macro opportunity sets post fed as always, just render if you are not G, S, clients or you are, remember with the press, this call is not for you. Please do hung up night. great.
  5. Just figure today as mention rock caplin by chairman golden sex and former president of the das fed rob. Thank you so much for join us this weekend on the weekend micro o call. The first of all, delvin the fed last week market deceived that delivery is a hawk kish hike.
  6. Uh, the dot plot suggested that the medium expectation around the table is for a including yesterday visit for a couple of rate increases. Uh, I getting the fed funds rate to more like four, four and and a quarter is some around the table, are hoping for a third, but I would call that pretty mute IT.
  7. And so um we're talking plus remind us fifty basis points. And in warsaw press conference, he did a much Better job explaining the meeting, explaining and how is thinking uh but the market over read him as being hawkish, I don't think is as hawkish as the market red. And the reason I say that in particular is the two year and the three year, the two years, an example, god, as high as low for seventies.
  8. metres. Therefore, the key risk for this hundred and twenty five plus still that you talked about, he sustained damage to energy infrastructure. Cw, 请关注公众号思维纪要社，更多纪要请加V西安20210130。

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【高盛】周末宏观：美联储加息不及市场鹰派，美国经济两极分化，AI、美债、原油、欧英央行与新兴市场全维度研判 260919_原文.docx

【摩根大通】首席周末宏观：全球货币政策由国别分化转向全球共振：美国消费韧性存分歧，两种宏观情景下美联储加息路径与潜在金融风险研判 260919_导读.docx

总结

  1. growth rate central banks energy Price consumer spendings Price shocks energy shock 关注公众号 domestic factors S. U. hiking cycles cutting cycle inflation pressures core pressures economist forecasts 公众号思维
  2. 本次讨论集中于经济预测与当前经济面临的挑战，特别是能源价格飙升对经济增长的影响，以及财政刺激政策的作用和美联储可能的货币政策调整。
  3. 同时，触及了美联储和其他主要银行采取紧缩措施应对通胀的行动，以及全球宏观经济不确定性，包括能源、食品和科技价格波动对全球经济增长和通胀预期的影响。
  4. 对话围绕全球通胀压力展开，讨论了能源价格、核心商品通胀、金融条件及劳动力市场等多方面因素对通胀的影响。
  5. 对话还涉及美联储政策调整的预期，认为可能需要加息3到4次以应对通胀压力，同时指出经济增长的不可持续性和未来可能的金融事件风险。
  6. 发言人1：The shift in perceptions of risk indicated by the actions of the Fed and other central banks is the increased confidence around growth resilience, the reduced concern about persistent inflation, and the view that policy stances are not as accommodative as they were previously.
  7. 发言人1：The potential impact of the macro economy being disrupted by financial events is that it could validate the idea of significant policy adjustments, as suggested by market surprises.
  8. 发言人1：The divergences in forecasts among central banks reflect that domestic considerations are being driven primarily by domestic outcomes, while there is a common set of global factors that have generated more synchronization in the past and could lead to revisions in forecasts.

预览

【摩根大通】首席周末宏观：全球货币政策由国别分化转向全球共振：美国消费韧性存分歧，两种宏观情景下美联储加息路径与潜在金融风险研判 260919_导读.docx

【摩根大通】首席周末宏观：全球货币政策由国别分化转向全球共振：美国消费韧性存分歧，两种宏观情景下美联储加息路径与潜在金融风险研判 260919_原文.docx

总结

  1. Welcome to the JP. Morgan weekender. I'm Bruce gasman and with me this week, is joe often a hey, buff of where are you doing?
  2. We're not going into that usage of the world to mess which we were just arguing for five minutes about. But to actually get to something that's exactly reasonable to talk about, I guess we will start with the idea that we gotten move in on the policy side. And he lets just note that the fed today, this week tighten for the first time and in over three years.
  3. And I guess what I animals yet we want to get into that. I guess from my point of view, the point to make more broadly here is that when you look at what the fed is telling us and you look at what other several banks are doing, I think they're validating this idea we've been pushing that is a fairly broad uh, shift going on in in perceptions of risk. Uh, the impatients around persistent inflation, the more confidence around growth resilience and the concern that policy stances are not a accommodative, the is are all displayed not just in what the fed was telling us in how it's forecasts eoe, but it's also in the other central banks.
  4. You know to me, what I think is most on my mind right now is, you know, the idea that what we're seeing in the macro economy, if it's not going to get disrupted by energy, if we're going to get disrupted by a financial event, I think is gonna validate what market is surprising, in which is AA significant policy adjustment. You know, as we wrote in a piece this week, the tailor rule save roughly hundred basis points for the D. M.
  5. And I think that not a bad place to be sort of setting our sites. But what's been more of my mind in the last week or so thinking about this is the idea that our forecasts and our tailor or estimates don't really have a synchronization. They have a lot of divergence built into them.
  6. And I think that divergence, which is also been in our economist forecasts, um reflects the idea that the domestic. Considerations are basically being driven primarily, if not exclusively, by domestic um outcomes. And what i'm increasingly thinking is that there is a common set of factors which we saw obviously over the twenty one to twenty four that generated more synching ization that is started to build here that we're not at incorporating in our individual a country forecast.
  7. That's why some of the sure where are seeing is not reflected in our bank of england, our street bank, our back canada and a large red number of vm central banks. And that, that has a good chance of getting um reflected in revisions, which I think we're starting to actually see in our team um as some of the dynamics around global forces that are both set to add to inflation and boost to growth get reflected. So that kind of on my mind on that and an overall thing there is the more specific issues around what we've seen from the fed, B, O, J.
  8. That's not the way the economy move wasn't the only thing I mentioned, Bruce. No, you请关注公众号思维纪要社，更多纪要请加V西安20210130。

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【摩根大通】首席周末宏观：全球货币政策由国别分化转向全球共振：美国消费韧性存分歧，两种宏观情景下美联储加息路径与潜在金融风险研判 260919_原文.docx

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