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#外资研报

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附件总结 MS-CPO短期内难以颠覆高端CCL需求-20260917.pdf

  1. CPO unlikely to disrupt high- Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2869
  2. Co-packaged optics (CPO) is a long-term risk, not an imminent demand Industry View In-Line
  3. EMC (2383.TW) shares fell 7.7% and TUC (6274.TWO) shares declined
  4. 6.7% on Sep 17, vs TAIEX +0.8%. Following the sell-off, investors have questioned
  5. high-speed electrical signal paths that would otherwise traverse the printed circuit
  6. meaningful challenges related to cost, manufacturing yield, reliability, serviceability,
  7. and thermal management. As such, we believe the risk of a broad-based reduction in
  8. CCL requirements across AI systems before 2028 remains limited. W e would view

MS-加州机器人节预览：湾区机器人巡礼-20260916.pdf

  1. Generalist's GEN-1.5 reported a 59% first-try success after a demonstration lasting 3-
  2. 12 seconds, with the core model itself left untouched. Skild's S1, released in August,
  3. collection. This year, a number of players including NVIDIA, Yann LeCun's AMI Labs, For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
  4. 3rd party videos (highly available, but lower fidelity). Meanwhile, Generalist's model
  5. performance across 20,854 hours of human video. Dyna Robotics reported a similar
  6. improved smoothly from 1,000 to 1,000,000 hours of training video with no sign
  7. phenomena occurred: 1) models reached a capability threshold where they could be
  8. Note: May not capture 100% of players. Does not include autonomous driving-specific companies (see separate section).

MS-美联储加息推动美债收益率曲线趋平-20260916.pdf

  1. 10y yield finished at 5.02 (+2.1bp). Longer maturities outperformed as the Jasper.Knyphausen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2185
  2. the dollar and short-term US yields increased. The combination left the investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
  3. corresponding rise in long-run inflation compensation. Research as only a single factor in making their investment
  4. • The dollar strengthened broadly as the Fed hike and Warsh’s inflation refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this
  5. rose 0.9% despite the franc’s usual defensive characteristics. Nordic and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on
  6. currencies also weakened, with USD/NOK up 1.0% and USD/SEK up 0.9%, as and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
  7. Fed Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ ECB Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ BOE Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ BOJ Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ
  8. EFFR (9/15) 3.630 0.0 -- EONIA (9/15) 2.190 0.0 -- SONIA (9/15) 3.730 0.0 -- TONAR (9/15) 0.978 0.0 --

UBS-UBS台湾科技峰会2026第二三日要点速览-20260916.pdf

  1. Realtek, FOCI. Detailed takeaways for our covered companies start on page 2. See also randy.abrams@ubs.com
  2. CoWoS industry capacity expansion continues to accelerate into 2027-28. We recently nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com
  3. raised CoWoS industry capacity to 260kwpm by end of 2027, up from 160kwpm end of +65-6495 5148
  4. requirement. We believe a new OSAT partner could move in tools from 2027 for volume ryan-za.sun@ubs.com
  5. production in 2028. Even if ASE has competition from a new OSAT partner, we believe +886-2-8722 7267
  6. ASE should grow LEAP sales steadily in 2027 to US$7.5bn+ and higher in 2028 with Christine Chen, CFA
  7. in next generation products should create larger demand for probing test and related +886-2-8722 7352
  8. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,

UBS-大宗商品日报：美联储鹰派加息-金价承压回落-20260917.pdf

  1. If you are receiving this report through your superannuation fund trustee, this report has been prepared by UBS AG, Australia Branch.
  2. For all other recipients, this report has been prepared by UBS Securities Australia Limited.ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED
  3. weeks. Investor discussions revolved around: 1) contracting activities, and the divergent
  4. deceleration in 2Q activities points to downside risk to our full-year growth expectations.
  5. more than once that financial conditions are not restrictive. He said that the 0.25 pp rate
  6. Our investment view on MI6 is subject to a range of upside and downside risks inherent in the
  7. methodology with a 6% discount rate. MI6 faces specific risk as it develops its Bullabulling
  8. reflective of gold as a speculative asset. MI6 does not currently have full funding required for

Views and Research.pdf

  1. timelier return” to the 2% target at consecutive meetings. We have kept our forecast for the terminal
  2. 18, by 25bp to 1.25%. The yen, which we consider as one factor influencing the timing of rate hikes, has
  3. overshooting inflation. We therefore still expect a subsequent rate hike in January 2027, with another (to
  4. materially overshooting the BOJ's 2% objective. JPY weakness alone is sufficient to justify this week's
  5. expectations. Our bias is that with 1y1y rates at 2.2% pricing is quite full, perhaps reflecting recent
  6. dissents from either Takata or Tamura for 50bps would be meaningful. We have no outlook report but if
  7. Ueda shifted to talking about risks of underlying inflation overshooting 2% (in contrast to last outlook
    1. As a result, the past 5 years have been among the worst periods for bond investors in a century,

MS-2Q26财报回顾：MSCI中国基本符合预期-A股盈利面仍偏弱-20260916.pdf

  1. F n o u r m M be S r C o I f C h co in m a p , r a e n p ie o s r t ( e -3 d . 0 ea % r ) n i a n n g d s w w e e i r g e h b te r d o a s d u l r y p i r n is l e in ( e + 4 w . i 8 t % h ) c , o i n m s p e r n o s v u i s n g b y f r b o o m th - - - - 2 4 3 1 0 0 0 0% % % % -12 -9 % - % 7 -1 % 5 -1 %- 0 1 % 9% -13 - % 6% -20 -3 % % - - 1 2 4 5 % % -23% -7% -20%-2 - 2 1 % 6% -2 -1 2- 4 2% % 4%- - 2 1 4 4 - % % 2 - 5 3 % 6 - % 1 - 9 2 % 6 - % 2 - 1 2 % 4 - % 1 - 8 3 % 0%-29%--3330 - %% 3 - 8 2 - % 0 2 % 7- - %2 1 4 7 % % -2 - 4 3 % 4% - - 2 3 % 3% -4 - % 5% - - 3 1 % 4% - - 9 2 % 0 - % 1 - 1 2 % 3% - - 9 1 % 3% - - 3 1 % 0%
  2. In revenue terms, top-line trends remained softer than earnings. MSCI China ex- 10 0% % 3% 1% 9% 4 8 % % 2% 2% 0% 9%10% 5%4 1 % %1%2% 0% 5% 7%6%7%7%8% 3%5%3%3%0%3% 0% 53%%
  3. F su in r a p n ri c s i e a l d s e a s n p d it M e a S C sl I i g C h h t in m a i A ss e b x y -F c in o a m n p c a ia n l y s w co e u r n e t b . oth broadly in line by weighted - - 2 1 0 0 % % -1% -5%-7% -17% - - 2 8 % %-7% -9 -3 %- % 8% -1% -5% -2% -7% -4 - % 2 -7 % %-6% -16-%16% -5% -11%-8% -16% -9% -4% -7%-10% 3% -3%-2-3%%-3%
  4. Exhibit 4: MSCI China detailed sector- and industry-level 2Q26 earnings – largely in-line results by number of companies and by
  5. Exhibit 7: MSCI China detailed sector- and industry-level (ex-financials) 2Q26 revenue – net miss by number of companies and in line
  6. Exhibit 10: MSCI China A Onshore detailed sector- and industry-level 2Q26 earnings – miss by number of companies and in-line result
  7. Exhibit 13: MSCI China A Onshore detailed sector- and industry-level (ex-financials) 2Q26 revenue – Notable net miss by number of
  8. Exhibit 16: Energy – Earnings estimate revision breadth (ERB) Exhibit 17: Materials – Earnings estimate revision breadth (ERB)

MS-AI广告：从注意力到成果转化-20260916.pdf

    • We calculate 2025 advertising revenue divided by the annual DAU time pool for the marketing density. Where a platform’s disclosed revenue scope includes commissions, we mark the bubble with a dashed outline.
  2. Taobao/Tmall's net spend score improved from -3 in 2024 to +55 in Clearest transaction-led beneficiary: closed-loop outcome data supports
  3. AI-tool users report c.10ppt higher perceived ROI. CMR recovery and longer-term commission and merchant-workflow upside.
  4. Meituan's net spend score rose from +9 in 2024 to +55 in 2026, Transaction closure—not standalone AI mindshare—is the moat;
  5. Exhibit 10: Improvements in content generation, ROI and Exhibit 11: AI is already affecting marketing expenditure across
  6. Improve content produc a t s io s n e t e s f t f e ic s i t e e n d cy / increase number of 64% Creative production spend 80%
    • We calculate 2025 advertising revenue divided by the average daily DAU time pool for the marketing density.Where a platform’s disclosed revenue scope includes commissions, we mark the bubble with a dashed outline.
  8. Exhibit 21: 72% report unchanged total ad dollars but internal Exhibit 22: AI has made cross-platform media allocation more

文档

MS-CPO短期内难以颠覆高端CCL需求-20260917.pdf

总结

  1. CPO unlikely to disrupt high- Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2869
  2. Co-packaged optics (CPO) is a long-term risk, not an imminent demand Industry View In-Line
  3. EMC (2383.TW) shares fell 7.7% and TUC (6274.TWO) shares declined
  4. 6.7% on Sep 17, vs TAIEX +0.8%. Following the sell-off, investors have questioned
  5. high-speed electrical signal paths that would otherwise traverse the printed circuit
  6. meaningful challenges related to cost, manufacturing yield, reliability, serviceability,
  7. and thermal management. As such, we believe the risk of a broad-based reduction in
  8. CCL requirements across AI systems before 2028 remains limited. W e would view

预览

MS-CPO短期内难以颠覆高端CCL需求-20260917.pdf

MS-加州机器人节预览：湾区机器人巡礼-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. Generalist's GEN-1.5 reported a 59% first-try success after a demonstration lasting 3-
  2. 12 seconds, with the core model itself left untouched. Skild's S1, released in August,
  3. collection. This year, a number of players including NVIDIA, Yann LeCun's AMI Labs, For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
  4. 3rd party videos (highly available, but lower fidelity). Meanwhile, Generalist's model
  5. performance across 20,854 hours of human video. Dyna Robotics reported a similar
  6. improved smoothly from 1,000 to 1,000,000 hours of training video with no sign
  7. phenomena occurred: 1) models reached a capability threshold where they could be
  8. Note: May not capture 100% of players. Does not include autonomous driving-specific companies (see separate section).

预览

MS-加州机器人节预览：湾区机器人巡礼-20260916.pdf

MS-美联储加息推动美债收益率曲线趋平-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. 10y yield finished at 5.02 (+2.1bp). Longer maturities outperformed as the Jasper.Knyphausen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2185
  2. the dollar and short-term US yields increased. The combination left the investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
  3. corresponding rise in long-run inflation compensation. Research as only a single factor in making their investment
  4. • The dollar strengthened broadly as the Fed hike and Warsh’s inflation refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this
  5. rose 0.9% despite the franc’s usual defensive characteristics. Nordic and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on
  6. currencies also weakened, with USD/NOK up 1.0% and USD/SEK up 0.9%, as and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
  7. Fed Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ ECB Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ BOE Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ BOJ Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ
  8. EFFR (9/15) 3.630 0.0 -- EONIA (9/15) 2.190 0.0 -- SONIA (9/15) 3.730 0.0 -- TONAR (9/15) 0.978 0.0 --

预览

MS-美联储加息推动美债收益率曲线趋平-20260916.pdf

UBS-UBS台湾科技峰会2026第二三日要点速览-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. Realtek, FOCI. Detailed takeaways for our covered companies start on page 2. See also randy.abrams@ubs.com
  2. CoWoS industry capacity expansion continues to accelerate into 2027-28. We recently nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com
  3. raised CoWoS industry capacity to 260kwpm by end of 2027, up from 160kwpm end of +65-6495 5148
  4. requirement. We believe a new OSAT partner could move in tools from 2027 for volume ryan-za.sun@ubs.com
  5. production in 2028. Even if ASE has competition from a new OSAT partner, we believe +886-2-8722 7267
  6. ASE should grow LEAP sales steadily in 2027 to US$7.5bn+ and higher in 2028 with Christine Chen, CFA
  7. in next generation products should create larger demand for probing test and related +886-2-8722 7352
  8. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,

预览

UBS-UBS台湾科技峰会2026第二三日要点速览-20260916.pdf

UBS-大宗商品日报：美联储鹰派加息-金价承压回落-20260917.pdf

总结

  1. If you are receiving this report through your superannuation fund trustee, this report has been prepared by UBS AG, Australia Branch.
  2. For all other recipients, this report has been prepared by UBS Securities Australia Limited.ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED
  3. weeks. Investor discussions revolved around: 1) contracting activities, and the divergent
  4. deceleration in 2Q activities points to downside risk to our full-year growth expectations.
  5. more than once that financial conditions are not restrictive. He said that the 0.25 pp rate
  6. Our investment view on MI6 is subject to a range of upside and downside risks inherent in the
  7. methodology with a 6% discount rate. MI6 faces specific risk as it develops its Bullabulling
  8. reflective of gold as a speculative asset. MI6 does not currently have full funding required for

预览

UBS-大宗商品日报：美联储鹰派加息-金价承压回落-20260917.pdf

Views and Research.pdf

总结

  1. timelier return” to the 2% target at consecutive meetings. We have kept our forecast for the terminal
  2. 18, by 25bp to 1.25%. The yen, which we consider as one factor influencing the timing of rate hikes, has
  3. overshooting inflation. We therefore still expect a subsequent rate hike in January 2027, with another (to
  4. materially overshooting the BOJ's 2% objective. JPY weakness alone is sufficient to justify this week's
  5. expectations. Our bias is that with 1y1y rates at 2.2% pricing is quite full, perhaps reflecting recent
  6. dissents from either Takata or Tamura for 50bps would be meaningful. We have no outlook report but if
  7. Ueda shifted to talking about risks of underlying inflation overshooting 2% (in contrast to last outlook
    1. As a result, the past 5 years have been among the worst periods for bond investors in a century,

预览

Views and Research.pdf

伯恩斯坦-美国半导体及半导体设备：AI“精灵”还能被塞回瓶子里吗？+20260914.pdf

预览

伯恩斯坦-美国半导体及半导体设备：AI“精灵”还能被塞回瓶子里吗？+20260914.pdf

MS-2Q26财报回顾：MSCI中国基本符合预期-A股盈利面仍偏弱-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. F n o u r m M be S r C o I f C h co in m a p , r a e n p ie o s r t ( e -3 d . 0 ea % r ) n i a n n g d s w w e e i r g e h b te r d o a s d u l r y p i r n is l e in ( e + 4 w . i 8 t % h ) c , o i n m s p e r n o s v u i s n g b y f r b o o m th - - - - 2 4 3 1 0 0 0 0% % % % -12 -9 % - % 7 -1 % 5 -1 %- 0 1 % 9% -13 - % 6% -20 -3 % % - - 1 2 4 5 % % -23% -7% -20%-2 - 2 1 % 6% -2 -1 2- 4 2% % 4%- - 2 1 4 4 - % % 2 - 5 3 % 6 - % 1 - 9 2 % 6 - % 2 - 1 2 % 4 - % 1 - 8 3 % 0%-29%--3330 - %% 3 - 8 2 - % 0 2 % 7- - %2 1 4 7 % % -2 - 4 3 % 4% - - 2 3 % 3% -4 - % 5% - - 3 1 % 4% - - 9 2 % 0 - % 1 - 1 2 % 3% - - 9 1 % 3% - - 3 1 % 0%
  2. In revenue terms, top-line trends remained softer than earnings. MSCI China ex- 10 0% % 3% 1% 9% 4 8 % % 2% 2% 0% 9%10% 5%4 1 % %1%2% 0% 5% 7%6%7%7%8% 3%5%3%3%0%3% 0% 53%%
  3. F su in r a p n ri c s i e a l d s e a s n p d it M e a S C sl I i g C h h t in m a i A ss e b x y -F c in o a m n p c a ia n l y s w co e u r n e t b . oth broadly in line by weighted - - 2 1 0 0 % % -1% -5%-7% -17% - - 2 8 % %-7% -9 -3 %- % 8% -1% -5% -2% -7% -4 - % 2 -7 % %-6% -16-%16% -5% -11%-8% -16% -9% -4% -7%-10% 3% -3%-2-3%%-3%
  4. Exhibit 4: MSCI China detailed sector- and industry-level 2Q26 earnings – largely in-line results by number of companies and by
  5. Exhibit 7: MSCI China detailed sector- and industry-level (ex-financials) 2Q26 revenue – net miss by number of companies and in line
  6. Exhibit 10: MSCI China A Onshore detailed sector- and industry-level 2Q26 earnings – miss by number of companies and in-line result
  7. Exhibit 13: MSCI China A Onshore detailed sector- and industry-level (ex-financials) 2Q26 revenue – Notable net miss by number of
  8. Exhibit 16: Energy – Earnings estimate revision breadth (ERB) Exhibit 17: Materials – Earnings estimate revision breadth (ERB)

预览

MS-2Q26财报回顾：MSCI中国基本符合预期-A股盈利面仍偏弱-20260916.pdf

MS-AI广告：从注意力到成果转化-20260916.pdf

总结

    • We calculate 2025 advertising revenue divided by the annual DAU time pool for the marketing density. Where a platform’s disclosed revenue scope includes commissions, we mark the bubble with a dashed outline.
  2. Taobao/Tmall's net spend score improved from -3 in 2024 to +55 in Clearest transaction-led beneficiary: closed-loop outcome data supports
  3. AI-tool users report c.10ppt higher perceived ROI. CMR recovery and longer-term commission and merchant-workflow upside.
  4. Meituan's net spend score rose from +9 in 2024 to +55 in 2026, Transaction closure—not standalone AI mindshare—is the moat;
  5. Exhibit 10: Improvements in content generation, ROI and Exhibit 11: AI is already affecting marketing expenditure across
  6. Improve content produc a t s io s n e t e s f t f e ic s i t e e n d cy / increase number of 64% Creative production spend 80%
    • We calculate 2025 advertising revenue divided by the average daily DAU time pool for the marketing density.Where a platform’s disclosed revenue scope includes commissions, we mark the bubble with a dashed outline.
  8. Exhibit 21: 72% report unchanged total ad dollars but internal Exhibit 22: AI has made cross-platform media allocation more

预览

MS-AI广告：从注意力到成果转化-20260916.pdf

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