思维纪要社 HTML 来自本地 Obsidian vault 的静态发布
主题 2026-09-18/topics/373.md 原文

#外资研报

图片

无图片

正文

详情页仍未获取到全文。原始列表正文可能被截断。

总体总结

主题正文

  1. 详情页仍未获取到全文。
  2. 原始列表正文可能被截断。

附件总结 【个股-SPCX】【英】MS-末日对冲：SpaceX是防御性AI股吗-20260915.pdf

  1. have rattled the AI trade. We offer 5 reasons why SpaceX may Space Technology | United States of America
  2. improvement in intelligence-per-watt-per-dollar-per-second. 52-Week Range $225.64-104.83
  3. Author's note. SpaceX is a manufacturing and infrastructure company engaged in EPS ($)** (1.69) 0.55 2.54 6.01
  4. the conversion of energy into intelligence at scale through its vertically integrated Prior EPS ($)** - - - -
  5. space launch, sat comms, and computing stack. In other words, SpaceX is an AI EPS ($)§ - 0.03 1.72 4.67
  6. is driven by the Enterprise AI business. You can't have it both ways. However, for ** = Based on consensus methodology
    1. Diversification. SpaceX is not a pure-play AI name. Starship milestones, Q2 (0.34) - (0.09)a - 0.63
  8. worth $118/share on our SOTP). At the current share price, the stock gives For analyst certification and other important disclosures,

【个股-SPCX】【英】MS-普罗米修斯耸肩：太空与机器人AI新前沿-20260911.pdf

  1. Robotics and Space are more than just another new technology. They are Devin.Roser@morganstanley.com + 1 212 296-4539
  2. take important steps today to position their portfolios for the next frontier. Industry View Attractive
  3. We offer 10 principles for investor consideration from a US perspective on the Shr price, close (Sep 10, 2026) $148.18
    1. Everything that can be automated likely will be automated. Machines that are EPS ($)** (1.69) 0.54 2.45 6.36
  5. automatons. The machines doing useful work of any economic significance should EPS ($)§ - 0.03 1.72 4.79
  6. cars made in US plants and Chinese gears, motors, magnets, sensors and batteries in 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e
    1. China is the leading player in physical AI. The US may have the led in frontier AI Q3 (0.36) - 0.21 - 0.62
    1. Reassessment of skilled trades/vocational education and training is needed. refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this

【个股-TEM】【英】MS-Tempus AI：MS医疗年会炉边对话纪要-20260915.pdf

  1. W hat's New from MS GHC Kallum.Titchmarsh@morganstanley.com + 1 212 761-2351
  2. Moat around the Data business described as durable by management. Mkt cap, curr (mm) $11,225
  3. MRK / MRNA V940 vaccine: We asked management for a bit more clarity around
  4. developed by MRK / MRNA that read out Phase 3 data in melanoma recently.
  5. Biopharma / Data: TEM sees the Data business growing sustainably around +30% y/
  6. launched competing offerings. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
  7. connection with its definitive agreement to acquire Personalis, Inc. (“Personalis”), as
  8. announced on July 20, 2026. The proposed transaction is subject to approval by

【个股-TSLA】【英】GS-特斯拉3Q26交付量更新及需求数据-20260916.pdf

    1. USA - Through August, QTD deliveries are tracking down in the GS Factor Profile ______________________________
  2. Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets 34,438.0 14,874.0 14,874.0 14,874.0
  3. Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________ Other long-term liabilities 16,491.0 17,656.0 17,656.0 17,656.0
  4. Income Statement ($ mn) ___________________________________ Total cash flow 889.0 10,733.1 (7,544.6) 675.8
  5. Cost of goods sold (77,733.0) (87,508.2) (102,232.6) (115,045.6) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
  6. 31-90-1202 80-11-1202 30-10-2202 82-20-2202 52-40-2202 02-60-2202 51-80-2202 01-01-2202 50-21-2202 03-10-3202 72-30-3202 22-50-3202 71-70-3202 11-90-3202 60-11-3202 10-10-4202 62-20-4202 22-40-4202 71-60-4202 21-80-4202 70-01-4202 20-21-4202 72-10-5202 42-30-5202 91-50-5202 41-70-5202 80-90-5202 30-11-5202 92-21-5202 32-20-6202 02-40-6202 51-60-6202 01-80-6202
  7. 31-90-1202 80-11-1202 30-10-2202 82-20-2202 52-40-2202 02-60-2202 51-80-2202 01-01-2202 50-21-2202 03-10-3202 72-30-3202 22-50-3202 71-70-3202 11-90-3202 60-11-3202 10-10-4202 62-20-4202 22-40-4202 71-60-4202 21-80-4202 70-01-4202 20-21-4202 72-10-5202 42-30-5202 91-50-5202 41-70-5202 80-90-5202 30-11-5202 92-21-5202 32-20-6202 02-40-6202 51-60-6202 01-80-6202
  8. 50-90-0202 50-21-0202 50-30-1202 50-60-1202 50-90-1202 50-21-1202 50-30-2202 50-60-2202 50-90-2202 50-21-2202 50-30-3202 50-60-3202 50-90-3202 50-21-3202 50-30-4202 50-60-4202 50-90-4202 50-21-4202 50-30-5202 50-60-5202 50-90-5202 50-21-5202 50-30-6202 50-60-6202 50-90-6202

【个股-TSLA】【英】MS-特斯拉Semi入局-重塑自动驾驶货运-20260911.pdf

  1. for FSD on consumer vehicles today. If Tesla reaches 82k Semis on road by 2040 For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
  2. Our PT of $400 is comprised of 5 components: (1) $45/share for core Tesla Auto business on ▪Leader in Physical AI. Tesla under Elon
  3. ~8.5mm units in 2040, 8.4% exit EBIT margin (ex-FSD), 10.9% WACC, and 10x 2040 exit Musk's leadership is poised to be a market
  4. EBITDA multiple. (2) Network Services at $144/share, 80% attach rate at $240/month ARPU leader across autonomous mobility,
    1. (4) Energy at $35/share, and (5) Humanoids at $56/share (50% probability discount). ▪Network Services the Crown Jewel. We
  6. $$$111333000...000000(((---666444...222444%%%))) PPPrrrooobbb (((<<<111333000...000000)))~~~333...555%%% Secular Growth: Positive
  7. Sep 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either
  8. deliver ~12.5mm units by 2040 with ~13.5% components: (1) $45/share for core Tesla automotive which assumes ~6.0mn units by

1pm BST - 8am EST Today- GCEM Macro Symp....pdf

  1. 2026/9/14 19:45 * 1pm BST / 8am EST Today: GCEM Macro Symposium -> Mester, Hatzius, Varadhan, Senior Trader Panel..
  2. Starting at 8am EDT / 1pm BST -> Day one of the GS Global Currencies & EM Virtual Macro
  3. Registration Link:https://goldmansachs.brandlive.com/GCEM-Symposium-September-2026
  4. GS Currencies & Emerging Markets invite you to our Bi-AnnualVirtual Macro Conference taking place
  5. on 14th, 15th + 16th September: Two sessions per day, commencing at 8am EST / 1pm BST, each one will
  6. https://marquee.gs.com/s/content/markets/291e5c78-ce50-463c-b4a8-0c53ce426861 1/4
  7. 2026/9/14 19:45 * 1pm BST / 8am EST Today: GCEM Macro Symposium -> Mester, Hatzius, Varadhan, Senior Trader Panel..
  8. Registration Link:https://goldmansachs.brandlive.com/GCEM-Symposium-September-2026

【个股-ON】【英】GS-安森美半导体-ON-：投资者日亮点——2030财务目标、功率产品增长与汽车业务展...-20260917.pdf

  1. stock reaction (down 9%) as overdone in light of elevated expectations heading into jim.schneider@gs.com
  2. of the Street (VA)) as very solid, although they may have fallen slightly short of the +1(212)357-6392 |
  3. semis tied to both AI datacenters and physical AI. In addition, we are encouraged by +1(212)357-1366 |
  4. the company’s plans to return 100% of FCF to shareholders while maintaining low Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
  5. revenue CAGR of 12%–14%, reaching ~$11 bn by 2030. Its targets contemplate Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
  6. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors
  7. should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
  8. www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research

【个股-ORCL】【英】CITI-Oracle落地AI算力-为投资者日铺平道路-20260911.pdf

  1. accelerate. Multicloud DB cloud grew 353% y/y and multicloud customers grew 180% y/y with multicloud DB regions reaching
  2. y/y which is generally in-line with consensus expectations and Q2 cloud revenue is expected to grow between 67% y/y cc at
  3. the midpoint which was 3 pts above street expectations . 2Q EPS is expected to be $1.87 at the mid-point which missed
  4. consensus $1.89. FY27 total revenue is expected to be at least $90B or +34% y/y growth (prior language was at $90B) with
  5. Estimate Changes — We are largely keeping our top and bottom-line estimates unchanged following the reiteration of FY27
  6. guide of at least $90B and F2Q guide in-line with expectations. We raise our FY29-FY30 Infrastructure estimates by ~$5B
  7. modeling a 4-YR CAGR for Cloud revenue and EPS growth of 57% and 30%, respectively. Our target price remains unchanged
  8. Our 1-year target price of $330 is based on ~18x PE multiple to our FY30E Non-GAAP EPS of $22 discounted back. We see the

【个股-ORCL】【英】GS-甲骨文1QFY：积压订单转化初现-FY28资本开支强度仍受关注-20260914.pdf

  1. overhang by completing the $20bn ATM and highlighted that most GS Forecast __________________________________
  2. financing, and BYOC structures. In our view, the larger debate Revenue ($ mn) Old 67,358.0 89,013.5 125,852.8 165,807.7
  3. remains FY28 and beyond as investors look to gain visibility into the EBIT ($ mn) 28,925.0 35,485.0 46,498.0 69,686.3
  4. Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets 4,893.0 5,649.1 7,620.6 9,637.4
  5. Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________ Other long-term liabilities 27,949.0 37,592.7 38,426.6 22,352.1
  6. Price Performance __________________________________________ Cash Flow ($ mn) ___________________________________________
  7. Income Statement ($ mn) ___________________________________ Total cash flow 20,503.0 (5,205.3) 8,821.0 2,979.3
  8. Cost of goods sold (22,162.0) (38,818.4) (67,609.6) (89,119.4) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

文档

【个股-SPCX】【英】MS-末日对冲：SpaceX是防御性AI股吗-20260915.pdf

总结

  1. have rattled the AI trade. We offer 5 reasons why SpaceX may Space Technology | United States of America
  2. improvement in intelligence-per-watt-per-dollar-per-second. 52-Week Range $225.64-104.83
  3. Author's note. SpaceX is a manufacturing and infrastructure company engaged in EPS ($)** (1.69) 0.55 2.54 6.01
  4. the conversion of energy into intelligence at scale through its vertically integrated Prior EPS ($)** - - - -
  5. space launch, sat comms, and computing stack. In other words, SpaceX is an AI EPS ($)§ - 0.03 1.72 4.67
  6. is driven by the Enterprise AI business. You can't have it both ways. However, for ** = Based on consensus methodology
    1. Diversification. SpaceX is not a pure-play AI name. Starship milestones, Q2 (0.34) - (0.09)a - 0.63
  8. worth $118/share on our SOTP). At the current share price, the stock gives For analyst certification and other important disclosures,

预览

【个股-SPCX】【英】MS-末日对冲：SpaceX是防御性AI股吗-20260915.pdf

【个股-SPCX】【英】MS-普罗米修斯耸肩：太空与机器人AI新前沿-20260911.pdf

总结

  1. Robotics and Space are more than just another new technology. They are Devin.Roser@morganstanley.com + 1 212 296-4539
  2. take important steps today to position their portfolios for the next frontier. Industry View Attractive
  3. We offer 10 principles for investor consideration from a US perspective on the Shr price, close (Sep 10, 2026) $148.18
    1. Everything that can be automated likely will be automated. Machines that are EPS ($)** (1.69) 0.54 2.45 6.36
  5. automatons. The machines doing useful work of any economic significance should EPS ($)§ - 0.03 1.72 4.79
  6. cars made in US plants and Chinese gears, motors, magnets, sensors and batteries in 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e
    1. China is the leading player in physical AI. The US may have the led in frontier AI Q3 (0.36) - 0.21 - 0.62
    1. Reassessment of skilled trades/vocational education and training is needed. refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this

预览

【个股-SPCX】【英】MS-普罗米修斯耸肩：太空与机器人AI新前沿-20260911.pdf

【个股-TEM】【英】MS-Tempus AI：MS医疗年会炉边对话纪要-20260915.pdf

总结

  1. W hat's New from MS GHC Kallum.Titchmarsh@morganstanley.com + 1 212 761-2351
  2. Moat around the Data business described as durable by management. Mkt cap, curr (mm) $11,225
  3. MRK / MRNA V940 vaccine: We asked management for a bit more clarity around
  4. developed by MRK / MRNA that read out Phase 3 data in melanoma recently.
  5. Biopharma / Data: TEM sees the Data business growing sustainably around +30% y/
  6. launched competing offerings. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
  7. connection with its definitive agreement to acquire Personalis, Inc. (“Personalis”), as
  8. announced on July 20, 2026. The proposed transaction is subject to approval by

预览

【个股-TEM】【英】MS-Tempus AI：MS医疗年会炉边对话纪要-20260915.pdf

【个股-TSLA】【英】GS-特斯拉3Q26交付量更新及需求数据-20260916.pdf

总结

    1. USA - Through August, QTD deliveries are tracking down in the GS Factor Profile ______________________________
  2. Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets 34,438.0 14,874.0 14,874.0 14,874.0
  3. Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________ Other long-term liabilities 16,491.0 17,656.0 17,656.0 17,656.0
  4. Income Statement ($ mn) ___________________________________ Total cash flow 889.0 10,733.1 (7,544.6) 675.8
  5. Cost of goods sold (77,733.0) (87,508.2) (102,232.6) (115,045.6) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
  6. 31-90-1202 80-11-1202 30-10-2202 82-20-2202 52-40-2202 02-60-2202 51-80-2202 01-01-2202 50-21-2202 03-10-3202 72-30-3202 22-50-3202 71-70-3202 11-90-3202 60-11-3202 10-10-4202 62-20-4202 22-40-4202 71-60-4202 21-80-4202 70-01-4202 20-21-4202 72-10-5202 42-30-5202 91-50-5202 41-70-5202 80-90-5202 30-11-5202 92-21-5202 32-20-6202 02-40-6202 51-60-6202 01-80-6202
  7. 31-90-1202 80-11-1202 30-10-2202 82-20-2202 52-40-2202 02-60-2202 51-80-2202 01-01-2202 50-21-2202 03-10-3202 72-30-3202 22-50-3202 71-70-3202 11-90-3202 60-11-3202 10-10-4202 62-20-4202 22-40-4202 71-60-4202 21-80-4202 70-01-4202 20-21-4202 72-10-5202 42-30-5202 91-50-5202 41-70-5202 80-90-5202 30-11-5202 92-21-5202 32-20-6202 02-40-6202 51-60-6202 01-80-6202
  8. 50-90-0202 50-21-0202 50-30-1202 50-60-1202 50-90-1202 50-21-1202 50-30-2202 50-60-2202 50-90-2202 50-21-2202 50-30-3202 50-60-3202 50-90-3202 50-21-3202 50-30-4202 50-60-4202 50-90-4202 50-21-4202 50-30-5202 50-60-5202 50-90-5202 50-21-5202 50-30-6202 50-60-6202 50-90-6202

预览

【个股-TSLA】【英】GS-特斯拉3Q26交付量更新及需求数据-20260916.pdf

【个股-TSLA】【英】MS-特斯拉Semi入局-重塑自动驾驶货运-20260911.pdf

总结

  1. for FSD on consumer vehicles today. If Tesla reaches 82k Semis on road by 2040 For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
  2. Our PT of $400 is comprised of 5 components: (1) $45/share for core Tesla Auto business on ▪Leader in Physical AI. Tesla under Elon
  3. ~8.5mm units in 2040, 8.4% exit EBIT margin (ex-FSD), 10.9% WACC, and 10x 2040 exit Musk's leadership is poised to be a market
  4. EBITDA multiple. (2) Network Services at $144/share, 80% attach rate at $240/month ARPU leader across autonomous mobility,
    1. (4) Energy at $35/share, and (5) Humanoids at $56/share (50% probability discount). ▪Network Services the Crown Jewel. We
  6. $$$111333000...000000(((---666444...222444%%%))) PPPrrrooobbb (((<<<111333000...000000)))~~~333...555%%% Secular Growth: Positive
  7. Sep 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either
  8. deliver ~12.5mm units by 2040 with ~13.5% components: (1) $45/share for core Tesla automotive which assumes ~6.0mn units by

预览

【个股-TSLA】【英】MS-特斯拉Semi入局-重塑自动驾驶货运-20260911.pdf

1pm BST - 8am EST Today- GCEM Macro Symp....pdf

总结

  1. 2026/9/14 19:45 * 1pm BST / 8am EST Today: GCEM Macro Symposium -> Mester, Hatzius, Varadhan, Senior Trader Panel..
  2. Starting at 8am EDT / 1pm BST -> Day one of the GS Global Currencies & EM Virtual Macro
  3. Registration Link:https://goldmansachs.brandlive.com/GCEM-Symposium-September-2026
  4. GS Currencies & Emerging Markets invite you to our Bi-AnnualVirtual Macro Conference taking place
  5. on 14th, 15th + 16th September: Two sessions per day, commencing at 8am EST / 1pm BST, each one will
  6. https://marquee.gs.com/s/content/markets/291e5c78-ce50-463c-b4a8-0c53ce426861 1/4
  7. 2026/9/14 19:45 * 1pm BST / 8am EST Today: GCEM Macro Symposium -> Mester, Hatzius, Varadhan, Senior Trader Panel..
  8. Registration Link:https://goldmansachs.brandlive.com/GCEM-Symposium-September-2026

预览

1pm BST - 8am EST Today- GCEM Macro Symp....pdf

【个股-ON】【英】GS-安森美半导体-ON-：投资者日亮点——2030财务目标、功率产品增长与汽车业务展...-20260917.pdf

总结

  1. stock reaction (down 9%) as overdone in light of elevated expectations heading into jim.schneider@gs.com
  2. of the Street (VA)) as very solid, although they may have fallen slightly short of the +1(212)357-6392 |
  3. semis tied to both AI datacenters and physical AI. In addition, we are encouraged by +1(212)357-1366 |
  4. the company’s plans to return 100% of FCF to shareholders while maintaining low Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
  5. revenue CAGR of 12%–14%, reaching ~$11 bn by 2030. Its targets contemplate Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
  6. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors
  7. should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
  8. www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research

预览

【个股-ON】【英】GS-安森美半导体-ON-：投资者日亮点——2030财务目标、功率产品增长与汽车业务展...-20260917.pdf

【个股-ORCL】【英】CITI-Oracle落地AI算力-为投资者日铺平道路-20260911.pdf

总结

  1. accelerate. Multicloud DB cloud grew 353% y/y and multicloud customers grew 180% y/y with multicloud DB regions reaching
  2. y/y which is generally in-line with consensus expectations and Q2 cloud revenue is expected to grow between 67% y/y cc at
  3. the midpoint which was 3 pts above street expectations . 2Q EPS is expected to be $1.87 at the mid-point which missed
  4. consensus $1.89. FY27 total revenue is expected to be at least $90B or +34% y/y growth (prior language was at $90B) with
  5. Estimate Changes — We are largely keeping our top and bottom-line estimates unchanged following the reiteration of FY27
  6. guide of at least $90B and F2Q guide in-line with expectations. We raise our FY29-FY30 Infrastructure estimates by ~$5B
  7. modeling a 4-YR CAGR for Cloud revenue and EPS growth of 57% and 30%, respectively. Our target price remains unchanged
  8. Our 1-year target price of $330 is based on ~18x PE multiple to our FY30E Non-GAAP EPS of $22 discounted back. We see the

预览

【个股-ORCL】【英】CITI-Oracle落地AI算力-为投资者日铺平道路-20260911.pdf

【个股-ORCL】【英】GS-甲骨文1QFY：积压订单转化初现-FY28资本开支强度仍受关注-20260914.pdf

总结

  1. overhang by completing the $20bn ATM and highlighted that most GS Forecast __________________________________
  2. financing, and BYOC structures. In our view, the larger debate Revenue ($ mn) Old 67,358.0 89,013.5 125,852.8 165,807.7
  3. remains FY28 and beyond as investors look to gain visibility into the EBIT ($ mn) 28,925.0 35,485.0 46,498.0 69,686.3
  4. Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets 4,893.0 5,649.1 7,620.6 9,637.4
  5. Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________ Other long-term liabilities 27,949.0 37,592.7 38,426.6 22,352.1
  6. Price Performance __________________________________________ Cash Flow ($ mn) ___________________________________________
  7. Income Statement ($ mn) ___________________________________ Total cash flow 20,503.0 (5,205.3) 8,821.0 2,979.3
  8. Cost of goods sold (22,162.0) (38,818.4) (67,609.6) (89,119.4) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

预览

【个股-ORCL】【英】GS-甲骨文1QFY：积压订单转化初现-FY28资本开支强度仍受关注-20260914.pdf

源文件：2026-09-18/topics/373.md
站内副本：2026-09-18/topics/373.md