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主题 2026-09-18/topics/372.md 原文

#外资研报

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附件总结 【个股-MSFT】【英】GS-微软：Communacopia+科技2026大会要点-20260910.pdf

  1. Bottom Line: 1) In a world of ongoing supply shortages, Microsoft’s comments on selina.zhang@gs.com
  2. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors
  3. should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
  4. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC
  5. www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
  6. Importantly, Microsoft was clear that the objective is not simply to replace 3P silicon
  7. with internally developed alternatives. Instead, 1P chips represent an additional tool
  8. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 9 Sep 2026 close.

【个股-MSFT】【英】MS-微软：股息提升8%-增强总回报吸引力-20260916.pdf

  1. announced a 7.7% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.98/share from $0.91, Fiscal Year Ending 06/26 06/27e 06/28e 06/29e
  2. 25x Base Case FY28e EPS of $24.06. 25x PE is a slight premium to large cap software peers, ▪Greater than expected capacity-driven
  3. Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 15
  4. Sep 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either
  5. Azure, O365 & Robust Contribution from AI Azure, M365 & Ramping Contribution from Macro, Scale & Limited AI Adoption Drives
  6. business lines drive low-20s revenue CAGR business lines drive high-teens rev CAGR limited. This drives mid-teens rev CAGR.
  7. in the coming years. Operating margins ahead. Operating margins expand beyond Operating margins only expand to ~45.0%
  8. is $27.64. ~29x PE represents a premium to 25x PE is a premium to large cap software FY28 EPS is $21.84. ~12x PE is a discount to

【个股-MU】【英】GS-美光科技4Q预览：供应紧张持续-资本回报成焦点-20260912.pdf

  1. strong quarter with upside to the Street and company guidance. We believe investor +1(212)357-6392 |
  2. heading into the print given ongoing DRAM price momentum, albeit more measured +1(212)902-5297 | luya.you@gs.com
  3. Financials ($ mn, except EPS) New Y/Y % Street GS / Street New Y/Y % Street GS / Street New Y/Y % Street GS / Street New Y/Y % Street GS / Street
  4. Total Revenue 51,905 458% 50,523 3% 57,700 617% 56,747 2% 174,921 313% 172,586 1% 262,305 50% 256,083 2%
  5. Gross Margin 87.3% +4839 bps 87.0% +34 bps 88.1% +5015 bps 87.5% +59 bps 85.3% +8531 bps 85.0% +32 bps 88.3% +299 bps 89.5% -121 bps
  6. Operating Margin 83.9% +5836 bps 83.6% +31 bps 84.9% +6106 bps 84.3% +58 bps 81.4% +4725 bps 81.2% +14 bps 85.3% +397 bps 86.4% -103 bps
  7. Non-GAAP EPS $32.54 1607% $31.40 4% $37.06 2276% $35.25 5% $106.93 849% $103.97 3% $170.70 60% $163.63 4%
  8. Segments New Y/Y % Street GS / Street New Y/Y % Street GS / Street New Y/Y % Street GS / Street New Y/Y % Street GS / Street

【个股-NVDA】【英】SemiAnalysis-英伟达-后盾宇宙-——正面我赢-反面谁输-20260912.pdf

  1. Senior Credit Markets Specialist - New York: 5-7 years in credit sales, sales trading, or trading,
  2. Credit Analyst - New York: 5-7 years in credit analysis, ideally covering high-yield, distressed,
  3. asset side, Nvidia’s cash balance has increased from $12B to $22B in the past few quarters,
  4. numbers, yet the scale of overall AI investment is larger – we estimate ~$11T of cumulative
  5. This line item made its debut in the 2Q F1/27 earnings report released on August 26th, 2026
  6. funds to mobilize over $500B of third-party capital to support the buildout of AI Clusters.
  7. as it not only reduces the residual value guarantee to only up to 25%, but it also is silent on
  8. While Nvidia has said the program targets over $500B of capital, we think it will likely swell

【个股-BE】【英】UBS-Bloom Energy：数据中心DC供电专题报告要点-20260917.pdf

  1. ˜ As highlighted in a BE report, power demand per AI rack is expected to surge from Price (16 Sep 2026) US$270.02
  2. conversion capacity, with key electrical equipment facing severe supply chain Avg. daily volume ('000) 3,087
  3. ˜ BE believes the adoption of native 800V DC fuel cell architectures has the potential Shneur Z. Gershuni, CFA
  4. Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share
  5. Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.1 Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) is calculated using UBS net income adding back depreciation
  6. UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence
  7. of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below.
  8. the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS

【个股-LLY】【英】JPM-肥胖症处方数据追踪-20260911.pdf

  1. (lack of step-edits, PAs, $50 co-pay), although this will likely take a couple (1-212) 622-0790
  2. – here, data for the week ending 9/4/26 show TRx of ~221k (vs ~207k Ekaterina V Knyazkova, CFA
  3. {[{HYhlmmYyuH3WxG6QXWa2bljQ7EYJ87Oa0P3UPjw8EuwLmXCjfokrhwiRrt-8AyWdeUWR2IXGdOHSydqzuoTt04E}]}
  4. Injectable Wegovy Novo 327,867 324,738 332,459 338,663 202,068 198,364 204,316 208,432 20% 25%
  5. Injectable Wegovy Novo 274,863 273,657 306,556 324,703 163,251 171,333 189,968 201,772 18% 26%
  6. {[{HYhlmmYyuH3WxG6QXWa2bljQ7EYJ87Oa0P3UPjw8EuwLmXCjfokrhwiRrt-8AyWdeUWR2IXGdOHSydqzuoTt04E}]}
  7. {[{HYhlmmYyuH3WxG6QXWa2bljQ7EYJ87Oa0P3UPjw8EuwLmXCjfokrhwiRrt-8AyWdeUWR2IXGdOHSydqzuoTt04E}]}
  8. {[{HYhlmmYyuH3WxG6QXWa2bljQ7EYJ87Oa0P3UPjw8EuwLmXCjfokrhwiRrt-8AyWdeUWR2IXGdOHSydqzuoTt04E}]}

【个股-META】【英】CITI-Meta产品路线图加速-多重催化剂可期-20260916.pdf

  1. capacity expands significantly in ’27, we believe META’s product roadmap is Expected share price
  2. exceeding IG and FB App downloads over the last several days, we believe Expected dividend yield 0.3%
  3. demand is accelerating organically, though we note Meta’s 3.6B DAP Expected total return 19.7%
  4. Source: Company Reports and dataCentral, Citi Research. FC Cons: First Call Consensus. VA Cons: Visible Alpha Consensus.
  5. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
  6. Figure 1. Muse's 5 Tabs Unlock Personalized & Agentic Assistance for Short-Term Tasks & Long-Term Goals
  7. Figure 3. Muse at 900K+ App Downloads in One Week.. Figure 4. ...Surpassing Meta's Individual US FoA Downloads
  8. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

【个股-META】【英】CITI-新增90日上行催化剂观察-20260916.pdf

  1. across Muse, its next-generation models, and its Meta glasses strategy. Market Cap US$1,707,441M
  2. Source: Company Reports and dataCentral, Citi Research. FC Cons: First Call Consensus. VA Cons: Visible Alpha Consensus.
  3. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations
  4. We rate Meta Platforms Buy. We view that Reels can effectively compete with other short-form video platforms and that
  5. Our target price of $800 is based on ~22x our 2027E GAAP EPS of $36.92 and implies ~11x our 2027E EV/EBITDA. We justify
  6. our valuation methodology based on Meta’s user scale, growing engagement, product super cycle and AI opportunity, ads
  7. Risks to our target price include: 1) Impacts from changes to ATT and IDFA could prove more difficult to overcome and
  8. contributions from its investments in non-advertising businesses (metaverse). 5) Adverse economic and/or consumer

【个股-META】【中英】GS-Meta推出Muse AI：从-对话到行动-范式转变及行业启示-20260914.pdf

  1. With the introduction of several action-based consumer agents in +1(917)343-8683 | eric.sheridan@gs.com
  2. dedicated iOS and Android applications, the web (muse.ai), and EBIT ($ mn) 83,276.0 86,938.3 89,950.2 118,608.1
  3. Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets 53,080.0 12,134.3 9,051.3 10,759.9
  4. Interest cover (X) 71.5 27.6 26.9 35.4 Other current liabilities 30,729.0 43,810.5 53,508.4 63,845.3
  5. Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________ Other long-term liabilities 25,258.0 31,640.9 40,918.2 49,657.5
  6. Price Performance __________________________________________ Cash Flow ($ mn) ___________________________________________
  7. Income Statement ($ mn) ___________________________________ Total cash flow (8,016.0) 36,510.2 (47,832.0) (15,400.6)
  8. Cost of goods sold (36,174.0) (57,638.1) (94,381.9) (116,978.1) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

文档

【个股-MSFT】【英】GS-微软：Communacopia+科技2026大会要点-20260910.pdf

总结

  1. Bottom Line: 1) In a world of ongoing supply shortages, Microsoft’s comments on selina.zhang@gs.com
  2. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors
  3. should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
  4. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC
  5. www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
  6. Importantly, Microsoft was clear that the objective is not simply to replace 3P silicon
  7. with internally developed alternatives. Instead, 1P chips represent an additional tool
  8. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 9 Sep 2026 close.

预览

【个股-MSFT】【英】GS-微软：Communacopia+科技2026大会要点-20260910.pdf

【个股-MSFT】【英】MS-微软：股息提升8%-增强总回报吸引力-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. announced a 7.7% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.98/share from $0.91, Fiscal Year Ending 06/26 06/27e 06/28e 06/29e
  2. 25x Base Case FY28e EPS of $24.06. 25x PE is a slight premium to large cap software peers, ▪Greater than expected capacity-driven
  3. Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 15
  4. Sep 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either
  5. Azure, O365 & Robust Contribution from AI Azure, M365 & Ramping Contribution from Macro, Scale & Limited AI Adoption Drives
  6. business lines drive low-20s revenue CAGR business lines drive high-teens rev CAGR limited. This drives mid-teens rev CAGR.
  7. in the coming years. Operating margins ahead. Operating margins expand beyond Operating margins only expand to ~45.0%
  8. is $27.64. ~29x PE represents a premium to 25x PE is a premium to large cap software FY28 EPS is $21.84. ~12x PE is a discount to

预览

【个股-MSFT】【英】MS-微软：股息提升8%-增强总回报吸引力-20260916.pdf

【个股-MU】【英】GS-美光科技4Q预览：供应紧张持续-资本回报成焦点-20260912.pdf

总结

  1. strong quarter with upside to the Street and company guidance. We believe investor +1(212)357-6392 |
  2. heading into the print given ongoing DRAM price momentum, albeit more measured +1(212)902-5297 | luya.you@gs.com
  3. Financials ($ mn, except EPS) New Y/Y % Street GS / Street New Y/Y % Street GS / Street New Y/Y % Street GS / Street New Y/Y % Street GS / Street
  4. Total Revenue 51,905 458% 50,523 3% 57,700 617% 56,747 2% 174,921 313% 172,586 1% 262,305 50% 256,083 2%
  5. Gross Margin 87.3% +4839 bps 87.0% +34 bps 88.1% +5015 bps 87.5% +59 bps 85.3% +8531 bps 85.0% +32 bps 88.3% +299 bps 89.5% -121 bps
  6. Operating Margin 83.9% +5836 bps 83.6% +31 bps 84.9% +6106 bps 84.3% +58 bps 81.4% +4725 bps 81.2% +14 bps 85.3% +397 bps 86.4% -103 bps
  7. Non-GAAP EPS $32.54 1607% $31.40 4% $37.06 2276% $35.25 5% $106.93 849% $103.97 3% $170.70 60% $163.63 4%
  8. Segments New Y/Y % Street GS / Street New Y/Y % Street GS / Street New Y/Y % Street GS / Street New Y/Y % Street GS / Street

预览

【个股-MU】【英】GS-美光科技4Q预览：供应紧张持续-资本回报成焦点-20260912.pdf

【个股-NVDA】【英】SemiAnalysis-英伟达-后盾宇宙-——正面我赢-反面谁输-20260912.pdf

总结

  1. Senior Credit Markets Specialist - New York: 5-7 years in credit sales, sales trading, or trading,
  2. Credit Analyst - New York: 5-7 years in credit analysis, ideally covering high-yield, distressed,
  3. asset side, Nvidia’s cash balance has increased from $12B to $22B in the past few quarters,
  4. numbers, yet the scale of overall AI investment is larger – we estimate ~$11T of cumulative
  5. This line item made its debut in the 2Q F1/27 earnings report released on August 26th, 2026
  6. funds to mobilize over $500B of third-party capital to support the buildout of AI Clusters.
  7. as it not only reduces the residual value guarantee to only up to 25%, but it also is silent on
  8. While Nvidia has said the program targets over $500B of capital, we think it will likely swell

预览

【个股-NVDA】【英】SemiAnalysis-英伟达-后盾宇宙-——正面我赢-反面谁输-20260912.pdf

【个股-BE】【英】UBS-Bloom Energy：数据中心DC供电专题报告要点-20260917.pdf

总结

  1. ˜ As highlighted in a BE report, power demand per AI rack is expected to surge from Price (16 Sep 2026) US$270.02
  2. conversion capacity, with key electrical equipment facing severe supply chain Avg. daily volume ('000) 3,087
  3. ˜ BE believes the adoption of native 800V DC fuel cell architectures has the potential Shneur Z. Gershuni, CFA
  4. Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share
  5. Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.1 Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) is calculated using UBS net income adding back depreciation
  6. UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence
  7. of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below.
  8. the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS

预览

【个股-BE】【英】UBS-Bloom Energy：数据中心DC供电专题报告要点-20260917.pdf

【个股-LLY】【英】JPM-肥胖症处方数据追踪-20260911.pdf

总结

  1. (lack of step-edits, PAs, $50 co-pay), although this will likely take a couple (1-212) 622-0790
  2. – here, data for the week ending 9/4/26 show TRx of ~221k (vs ~207k Ekaterina V Knyazkova, CFA
  3. {[{HYhlmmYyuH3WxG6QXWa2bljQ7EYJ87Oa0P3UPjw8EuwLmXCjfokrhwiRrt-8AyWdeUWR2IXGdOHSydqzuoTt04E}]}
  4. Injectable Wegovy Novo 327,867 324,738 332,459 338,663 202,068 198,364 204,316 208,432 20% 25%
  5. Injectable Wegovy Novo 274,863 273,657 306,556 324,703 163,251 171,333 189,968 201,772 18% 26%
  6. {[{HYhlmmYyuH3WxG6QXWa2bljQ7EYJ87Oa0P3UPjw8EuwLmXCjfokrhwiRrt-8AyWdeUWR2IXGdOHSydqzuoTt04E}]}
  7. {[{HYhlmmYyuH3WxG6QXWa2bljQ7EYJ87Oa0P3UPjw8EuwLmXCjfokrhwiRrt-8AyWdeUWR2IXGdOHSydqzuoTt04E}]}
  8. {[{HYhlmmYyuH3WxG6QXWa2bljQ7EYJ87Oa0P3UPjw8EuwLmXCjfokrhwiRrt-8AyWdeUWR2IXGdOHSydqzuoTt04E}]}

预览

【个股-LLY】【英】JPM-肥胖症处方数据追踪-20260911.pdf

【个股-META】【英】CITI-Meta产品路线图加速-多重催化剂可期-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. capacity expands significantly in ’27, we believe META’s product roadmap is Expected share price
  2. exceeding IG and FB App downloads over the last several days, we believe Expected dividend yield 0.3%
  3. demand is accelerating organically, though we note Meta’s 3.6B DAP Expected total return 19.7%
  4. Source: Company Reports and dataCentral, Citi Research. FC Cons: First Call Consensus. VA Cons: Visible Alpha Consensus.
  5. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
  6. Figure 1. Muse's 5 Tabs Unlock Personalized & Agentic Assistance for Short-Term Tasks & Long-Term Goals
  7. Figure 3. Muse at 900K+ App Downloads in One Week.. Figure 4. ...Surpassing Meta's Individual US FoA Downloads
  8. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

预览

【个股-META】【英】CITI-Meta产品路线图加速-多重催化剂可期-20260916.pdf

【个股-META】【英】CITI-新增90日上行催化剂观察-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. across Muse, its next-generation models, and its Meta glasses strategy. Market Cap US$1,707,441M
  2. Source: Company Reports and dataCentral, Citi Research. FC Cons: First Call Consensus. VA Cons: Visible Alpha Consensus.
  3. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations
  4. We rate Meta Platforms Buy. We view that Reels can effectively compete with other short-form video platforms and that
  5. Our target price of $800 is based on ~22x our 2027E GAAP EPS of $36.92 and implies ~11x our 2027E EV/EBITDA. We justify
  6. our valuation methodology based on Meta’s user scale, growing engagement, product super cycle and AI opportunity, ads
  7. Risks to our target price include: 1) Impacts from changes to ATT and IDFA could prove more difficult to overcome and
  8. contributions from its investments in non-advertising businesses (metaverse). 5) Adverse economic and/or consumer

预览

【个股-META】【英】CITI-新增90日上行催化剂观察-20260916.pdf

【个股-META】【中英】GS-Meta推出Muse AI：从-对话到行动-范式转变及行业启示-20260914.pdf

总结

  1. With the introduction of several action-based consumer agents in +1(917)343-8683 | eric.sheridan@gs.com
  2. dedicated iOS and Android applications, the web (muse.ai), and EBIT ($ mn) 83,276.0 86,938.3 89,950.2 118,608.1
  3. Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets 53,080.0 12,134.3 9,051.3 10,759.9
  4. Interest cover (X) 71.5 27.6 26.9 35.4 Other current liabilities 30,729.0 43,810.5 53,508.4 63,845.3
  5. Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________ Other long-term liabilities 25,258.0 31,640.9 40,918.2 49,657.5
  6. Price Performance __________________________________________ Cash Flow ($ mn) ___________________________________________
  7. Income Statement ($ mn) ___________________________________ Total cash flow (8,016.0) 36,510.2 (47,832.0) (15,400.6)
  8. Cost of goods sold (36,174.0) (57,638.1) (94,381.9) (116,978.1) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

预览

【个股-META】【中英】GS-Meta推出Muse AI：从-对话到行动-范式转变及行业启示-20260914.pdf

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