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主题 2026-09-17/topics/452.md 原文

#外资研报

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附件总结 JPM-METI 7月电子元器件与半导体生产数据解读：ABF基板景气-Si-MOSFET...-20260916.pdf

  1. Aluminum electrolytic capacitors 908.1 4.2% -0.7% Aluminum electrolytic capacitors 18,344 8.2% 1.3% Aluminum electrolytic capacitors 113.1 -1.9% 0.4%
  2. Functional components 1,809.9 -7.2% 5.1% Functional components 20,586 -16.0% 1.8% Functional components 126.9 -23.8% 0.9%
  3. Mechanical Components 2,959.4 -3.3% 0.8% Mechanical Components 38,423 8.5% -0.1% Mechanical Components 236.8 -1.7% -1.0%
  4. Electronic circuit boards 812.7 0.2% 2.7% Electronic circuit boards 74,385 31.1% 6.7% Electronic circuit boards 458.4 18.9% 5.8%
  5. Electronic circuit jisso boards 1,453.6 6.9% 3.4% Electronic circuit jisso boards 34,757 20.6% 1.7% Electronic circuit jisso boards 214.2 9.3% 0.8%
  6. Printed wiring jisso boards 1,059.3 10.7% 4.0% Printed wiring jisso boards 17,935 16.1% 5.8% Printed wiring jisso boards 110.5 5.3% 4.9%
  7. Discrete Semiconductors 952.3 10.5% 11.5% Discrete Semiconductors 38,401 -6.6% 0.1% Discrete Semiconductors 236.7 -15.3% -0.8%
  8. Diodes and Rectifiers 660.2 14.1% 14.7% Diodes and Rectifiers 3,927 -21.9% -1.5% Diodes and Rectifiers 24.2 -29.2% -2.3%

JPM-金属周报：FOMC前黄金ETF持仓显得头重脚轻-20260916.pdf

  1. • Our economists expect the Fed to hike 25 bp today followed by another 25 Global Commodities Research
  2. • Amid this positioning risk, a crystallisation of a more hawkish Fed, which J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
  3. Gregory C. ShearerAC(44-20) 7134-8161 Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 Global Markets Strategy JPMORGAN
  4. Gregory C. ShearerAC(44-20) 7134-8161 Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 Global Markets Strategy JPMORGAN
  5. ationer of ceicr pdatetimsy e) baily flow dFOg LIinmusly 20 (as Juecinilt su bgsinold ETF hold Gdgateeg aggrrebg BloominainmeR
  6. Gregory C. ShearerAC(44-20) 7134-8161 Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 Global Markets Strategy JPMORGAN
  7. Gregory C. ShearerAC(44-20) 7134-8161 Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 Global Markets Strategy JPMORGAN
  8. Gregory C. ShearerAC(44-20) 7134-8161 Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 Global Markets Strategy JPMORGAN

JPM-亚太信用市场综述——中国经济、大华银行、美团-20260916.pdf

  1. China reported a mixed set of activity data in August following July’s broad-based (852) 2800-8533
  2. softness. Industrial production was solid with 5.2% yoy growth, supported by resilient alvin.au@jpmorgan.com
  3. increasingly K-shaped: (1) production is holding up on the back of solid external J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
  4. execution is finally catching up, after a slow pace in 2Q/early 3Q. Central government J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
  5. Rmb800bn policy bank tool was also kicked off recently. These efforts should support (852) 2800-8727
  6. positive for the industry, as reduced housing supply may support a broader home price (65) 6882-1640
  7. mitigate the potentially heavier DP pressure going forward. We are comfortable with J.P. Morgan Securities plc
  8. cash flows, and we remain OW on the curve for a 9-10% yield. (Alvin) For key risks and catalysts not already

MS-中国先进封装：青睐资本支出受益者与份额提升者-20260915.pdf

  1. Buy/Overweight |||||||||||||||||||||| 88% ||||||||||||||||||||| 83% ||||||||||||||||||||||| 92% |||||||||||||||||||||||| 94% ||||||||||||||||||||||||| 100%
  2. Tongfu Microelectronics 5 6.8 CNY 1 2,847 23.4% 15.6% 12.2% 3 x 2 x 2 x 4 4x 4 1x 3 4x 4.9x 4.4x 3.9x (9.8%) (0.8%) 71.5%
  3. Hua Hong (H-share) 106.5 USD 3 9,217 24.8% 18.5% 10.8% 1 3x 1 1x 1 0x 1 20x 6 8x 5 3x 1 6.3x 1 3.1x 11.0x (18.2%) (23.5%) 109.2%
  4. BE Semiconductor 176.0 EUR 1 6,473 67.4% 42.7% 9.0% 1 4x 1 0x 9 x 4 1x 2 5x 2 2x 1 8.1x 1 2.7x 9.6x (24.6%) (44.5%) 57.3%
  5. Hanmi Semiconductor 2 25,000.0 KRW 1 5,920 29.9% 57.5% 14.7% 2 9x 1 8x 1 6x 6 2x 4 1x 3 6x 2 4.4x 1 6.6x 12.2x (1.7%) (37.7%) 147.5%
  6. Exhibit 18: OSAT capex started to rise from 2024 driven by Exhibit 19: OSAT capex as % of revenue is rising to historical
  7. Exhibit 30: 2025 China market sales growth, JCET the highest Exhibit 31: JCET domestic market gross margin improved 6ppt
  8. Base case, residual income model. We assume a cost of equity of 8.6% (risk free rate of 2%, ▪We expect JCET to be a market share

SemiAnalysis-数据中心禁令正在扼杀美国建设潮-我们不同意-20260916.pdf

  1. At the local level (i.e., cities, townships, counties), of the roughly 20 GW sitting inside a
  2. To be 100% clear, we think moratoriums COULD delay the buildout, but they just aren’t yet
  3. Model. It covers more than 400 local instruments, actions, and proposals across 17 states,
  4. and revoke. More durable statewide restrictions remain much harder to enact: 13 bills died
  5. filters is substantial: 300+ local instruments translate into just ~1,525 MW of actual project
  6. So far, most restrictions have come at the local level. As of September 2026, more than 300
  7. and 7 proposed, with the majority adopted in late 2025 and 2026 following a rapid influx of
  8. minimal. Only 1,525 MW is directly delayed, which is 7.6% of the capacity sitting inside a

GS-中国：外管局数据显示8月外汇流入增加-20260916.pdf

  1. Our preferred FX flow measure shows net FX inflows of US$55bn in August 2026 (vs. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
  2. 1 Net FX receipts closely track the BOP portfolio investment balance, covering both inbound and
  3. Exhibit 1: Our preferred gauge suggests increased FX Exhibit 2: Single-month FX conversion ratio for goods
  4. Modified FX flow Cross-border RMB flow (since Oct'15) FX conversion ratio related to goods trade balance
  5. Source: SAFE, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research The line shows a six-month moving average of FX conversion ratio.
  6. Exhibit 3: Foreign investors net sold some RMB bonds in Exhibit 4: Both banks’ net external assets and official FX
  7. -50 -50 * GS estimates based on IMF globalreserve composition data. We do not adjust for assetprice
  8. CGB: Central government bonds, LGB: Local government bonds, PBB: Policy Source: PBOC, CEIC, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment

GS-中国策略思考：政策与宏观回归视野-20260916.pdf

  1. 22-tcO 32-naJ 32-rpA 32-luJ 32-tcO 42-naJ 42-rpA 42-luJ 42-tcO 52-naJ 52-rpA 52-luJ 52-tcO 62-naJ 62-rpA 62-luJ
  2. 60-naJ 70-naJ 80-naJ 90-naJ 01-naJ 11-naJ 21-naJ 31-naJ 41-naJ 51-naJ 61-naJ 71-naJ 81-naJ 91-naJ 02-naJ 12-naJ 22-naJ 32-naJ 42-naJ 52-naJ 62-naJ
  3. 4002 5002 6002 7002 8002 9002 0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 4202 5202 6202
  4. 61-naJ 61-luJ 71-naJ 71-luJ 81-naJ 81-luJ 91-naJ 91-luJ 02-naJ 02-luJ 12-naJ 12-luJ 22-naJ 22-luJ 32-naJ 32-luJ 42-naJ 42-luJ 52-naJ 52-luJ 62-naJ 62-luJ
  5. Exhibit 7: We screen for offshore-listed Chinese POEs incorporated in the Cayman Islands or Bermuda that have delivered
  6. Based on 124 links from 48 global (English) media sources and 156 links from 28 Chinese media sources over the past month;
  7. 81-naJ 81-luJ 91-naJ 91-luJ 02-naJ 02-luJ 12-naJ 12-luJ 22-naJ 22-luJ 32-naJ 32-luJ 42-naJ 42-luJ 52-naJ 52-luJ 62-naJ 62-luJ
  8. ^^Latest reading is for 3Q26 qtd average as of Sep 14. 42-ceD 52-beF 52-rpA 52-nuJ 52-guA 52-tcO 52-ceD 62-beF 62-rpA 62-nuJ 62-guA

文档

JPM-METI 7月电子元器件与半导体生产数据解读：ABF基板景气-Si-MOSFET...-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. Aluminum electrolytic capacitors 908.1 4.2% -0.7% Aluminum electrolytic capacitors 18,344 8.2% 1.3% Aluminum electrolytic capacitors 113.1 -1.9% 0.4%
  2. Functional components 1,809.9 -7.2% 5.1% Functional components 20,586 -16.0% 1.8% Functional components 126.9 -23.8% 0.9%
  3. Mechanical Components 2,959.4 -3.3% 0.8% Mechanical Components 38,423 8.5% -0.1% Mechanical Components 236.8 -1.7% -1.0%
  4. Electronic circuit boards 812.7 0.2% 2.7% Electronic circuit boards 74,385 31.1% 6.7% Electronic circuit boards 458.4 18.9% 5.8%
  5. Electronic circuit jisso boards 1,453.6 6.9% 3.4% Electronic circuit jisso boards 34,757 20.6% 1.7% Electronic circuit jisso boards 214.2 9.3% 0.8%
  6. Printed wiring jisso boards 1,059.3 10.7% 4.0% Printed wiring jisso boards 17,935 16.1% 5.8% Printed wiring jisso boards 110.5 5.3% 4.9%
  7. Discrete Semiconductors 952.3 10.5% 11.5% Discrete Semiconductors 38,401 -6.6% 0.1% Discrete Semiconductors 236.7 -15.3% -0.8%
  8. Diodes and Rectifiers 660.2 14.1% 14.7% Diodes and Rectifiers 3,927 -21.9% -1.5% Diodes and Rectifiers 24.2 -29.2% -2.3%

预览

JPM-METI 7月电子元器件与半导体生产数据解读：ABF基板景气-Si-MOSFET...-20260916.pdf

JPM-金属周报：FOMC前黄金ETF持仓显得头重脚轻-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. • Our economists expect the Fed to hike 25 bp today followed by another 25 Global Commodities Research
  2. • Amid this positioning risk, a crystallisation of a more hawkish Fed, which J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
  3. Gregory C. ShearerAC(44-20) 7134-8161 Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 Global Markets Strategy JPMORGAN
  4. Gregory C. ShearerAC(44-20) 7134-8161 Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 Global Markets Strategy JPMORGAN
  5. ationer of ceicr pdatetimsy e) baily flow dFOg LIinmusly 20 (as Juecinilt su bgsinold ETF hold Gdgateeg aggrrebg BloominainmeR
  6. Gregory C. ShearerAC(44-20) 7134-8161 Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 Global Markets Strategy JPMORGAN
  7. Gregory C. ShearerAC(44-20) 7134-8161 Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 Global Markets Strategy JPMORGAN
  8. Gregory C. ShearerAC(44-20) 7134-8161 Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 Global Markets Strategy JPMORGAN

预览

JPM-金属周报：FOMC前黄金ETF持仓显得头重脚轻-20260916.pdf

JPM-亚太信用市场综述——中国经济、大华银行、美团-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. China reported a mixed set of activity data in August following July’s broad-based (852) 2800-8533
  2. softness. Industrial production was solid with 5.2% yoy growth, supported by resilient alvin.au@jpmorgan.com
  3. increasingly K-shaped: (1) production is holding up on the back of solid external J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
  4. execution is finally catching up, after a slow pace in 2Q/early 3Q. Central government J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
  5. Rmb800bn policy bank tool was also kicked off recently. These efforts should support (852) 2800-8727
  6. positive for the industry, as reduced housing supply may support a broader home price (65) 6882-1640
  7. mitigate the potentially heavier DP pressure going forward. We are comfortable with J.P. Morgan Securities plc
  8. cash flows, and we remain OW on the curve for a 9-10% yield. (Alvin) For key risks and catalysts not already

预览

JPM-亚太信用市场综述——中国经济、大华银行、美团-20260916.pdf

MS-中国先进封装：青睐资本支出受益者与份额提升者-20260915.pdf

总结

  1. Buy/Overweight |||||||||||||||||||||| 88% ||||||||||||||||||||| 83% ||||||||||||||||||||||| 92% |||||||||||||||||||||||| 94% ||||||||||||||||||||||||| 100%
  2. Tongfu Microelectronics 5 6.8 CNY 1 2,847 23.4% 15.6% 12.2% 3 x 2 x 2 x 4 4x 4 1x 3 4x 4.9x 4.4x 3.9x (9.8%) (0.8%) 71.5%
  3. Hua Hong (H-share) 106.5 USD 3 9,217 24.8% 18.5% 10.8% 1 3x 1 1x 1 0x 1 20x 6 8x 5 3x 1 6.3x 1 3.1x 11.0x (18.2%) (23.5%) 109.2%
  4. BE Semiconductor 176.0 EUR 1 6,473 67.4% 42.7% 9.0% 1 4x 1 0x 9 x 4 1x 2 5x 2 2x 1 8.1x 1 2.7x 9.6x (24.6%) (44.5%) 57.3%
  5. Hanmi Semiconductor 2 25,000.0 KRW 1 5,920 29.9% 57.5% 14.7% 2 9x 1 8x 1 6x 6 2x 4 1x 3 6x 2 4.4x 1 6.6x 12.2x (1.7%) (37.7%) 147.5%
  6. Exhibit 18: OSAT capex started to rise from 2024 driven by Exhibit 19: OSAT capex as % of revenue is rising to historical
  7. Exhibit 30: 2025 China market sales growth, JCET the highest Exhibit 31: JCET domestic market gross margin improved 6ppt
  8. Base case, residual income model. We assume a cost of equity of 8.6% (risk free rate of 2%, ▪We expect JCET to be a market share

预览

MS-中国先进封装：青睐资本支出受益者与份额提升者-20260915.pdf

SemiAnalysis-数据中心禁令正在扼杀美国建设潮-我们不同意-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. At the local level (i.e., cities, townships, counties), of the roughly 20 GW sitting inside a
  2. To be 100% clear, we think moratoriums COULD delay the buildout, but they just aren’t yet
  3. Model. It covers more than 400 local instruments, actions, and proposals across 17 states,
  4. and revoke. More durable statewide restrictions remain much harder to enact: 13 bills died
  5. filters is substantial: 300+ local instruments translate into just ~1,525 MW of actual project
  6. So far, most restrictions have come at the local level. As of September 2026, more than 300
  7. and 7 proposed, with the majority adopted in late 2025 and 2026 following a rapid influx of
  8. minimal. Only 1,525 MW is directly delayed, which is 7.6% of the capacity sitting inside a

预览

SemiAnalysis-数据中心禁令正在扼杀美国建设潮-我们不同意-20260916.pdf

Where Does a Robot Think — On-Device vs Datacenter Inference.pdf

预览

Where Does a Robot Think — On-Device vs Datacenter Inference.pdf

伯恩斯坦-数据中心与新晋云厂商-若前沿模型研发真的放缓，谁将受益、谁将承压？+20260914.pdf

预览

伯恩斯坦-数据中心与新晋云厂商-若前沿模型研发真的放缓，谁将受益、谁将承压？+20260914.pdf

GS-中国：外管局数据显示8月外汇流入增加-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. Our preferred FX flow measure shows net FX inflows of US$55bn in August 2026 (vs. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
  2. 1 Net FX receipts closely track the BOP portfolio investment balance, covering both inbound and
  3. Exhibit 1: Our preferred gauge suggests increased FX Exhibit 2: Single-month FX conversion ratio for goods
  4. Modified FX flow Cross-border RMB flow (since Oct'15) FX conversion ratio related to goods trade balance
  5. Source: SAFE, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research The line shows a six-month moving average of FX conversion ratio.
  6. Exhibit 3: Foreign investors net sold some RMB bonds in Exhibit 4: Both banks’ net external assets and official FX
  7. -50 -50 * GS estimates based on IMF globalreserve composition data. We do not adjust for assetprice
  8. CGB: Central government bonds, LGB: Local government bonds, PBB: Policy Source: PBOC, CEIC, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment

预览

GS-中国：外管局数据显示8月外汇流入增加-20260916.pdf

GS-中国策略思考：政策与宏观回归视野-20260916.pdf

总结

  1. 22-tcO 32-naJ 32-rpA 32-luJ 32-tcO 42-naJ 42-rpA 42-luJ 42-tcO 52-naJ 52-rpA 52-luJ 52-tcO 62-naJ 62-rpA 62-luJ
  2. 60-naJ 70-naJ 80-naJ 90-naJ 01-naJ 11-naJ 21-naJ 31-naJ 41-naJ 51-naJ 61-naJ 71-naJ 81-naJ 91-naJ 02-naJ 12-naJ 22-naJ 32-naJ 42-naJ 52-naJ 62-naJ
  3. 4002 5002 6002 7002 8002 9002 0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 4202 5202 6202
  4. 61-naJ 61-luJ 71-naJ 71-luJ 81-naJ 81-luJ 91-naJ 91-luJ 02-naJ 02-luJ 12-naJ 12-luJ 22-naJ 22-luJ 32-naJ 32-luJ 42-naJ 42-luJ 52-naJ 52-luJ 62-naJ 62-luJ
  5. Exhibit 7: We screen for offshore-listed Chinese POEs incorporated in the Cayman Islands or Bermuda that have delivered
  6. Based on 124 links from 48 global (English) media sources and 156 links from 28 Chinese media sources over the past month;
  7. 81-naJ 81-luJ 91-naJ 91-luJ 02-naJ 02-luJ 12-naJ 12-luJ 22-naJ 22-luJ 32-naJ 32-luJ 42-naJ 42-luJ 52-naJ 52-luJ 62-naJ 62-luJ
  8. ^^Latest reading is for 3Q26 qtd average as of Sep 14. 42-ceD 52-beF 52-rpA 52-nuJ 52-guA 52-tcO 52-ceD 62-beF 62-rpA 62-nuJ 62-guA

预览

GS-中国策略思考：政策与宏观回归视野-20260916.pdf

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