#外资研报

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附件总结 Views and Research.pdf

1. Finally, while the recent rise in energy prices has had a limited impact on these G3 currencies, we note there is a clear effect on some more vulnerable EM currencies l
2. We added a 25bp rate hike at this week’s September FOMC meeting to our forecast last Friday following the August CPI report. The report had little impact on our
3. nearly 90%, high enough that the FOMC will likely want to avoid the market reaction that would likely follow from remaining on hold. We continue to expect two cu
4. December (vs. June and December previously). We have also raised our forecast for the terminal rate to 3.25-3.5% (vs. 3-3.25% previously).
5. We do not see a strong economic case for raising the funds rate. We think that all of the overshoot of 2% can be attributed to one-time factors whose impact is lik
6. a roughly 2.5% pace over the last three months is an early sign of this, that high inflation looks broad-based mainly because of tariff effects, that inflation expectat
7. i) Buy 6mnth Downside in USDJPY + EURJPY: Cleanest expression of the JPY stronger-trade -> i) Buy 6m 140 USDJPY Digi Put for 11.15% USD (Max leverage ~9x);
8. ii) JPY Stronger through FX Correlation: USDJPY Lower, USD Stronger vs EUR + AUD -> i) Buy 11 Dec Dual Binary EURUSD < ATMS vs USDJPY < 150 for 8% USD (Max 12.5x l

高盛晨读 - 加息预期变化 - 紧缩周期中美股表现 - 半导体-光模块-缺电调研....pdf 要点：AI顺⻛推动MLCC与ABF载板⾛强…SEMCO – US NDR Takeaways: AI tailwinds driving MLCC and ABF strength – Buy 汽⻋|侯雪婷Tina 中国乘⽤⻋⽉度图评: 2026年8⽉ - 强劲出⼝增⻓持续但国内零售销量⾛弱，⽐亚迪改款⻋型提价…China Passenger Vehicle Monthly Chartbook: Aug 2026 - Strong ex 近期⼤会 Date Event CONFERENCES & CORPORATE DAYS 23-Sep (Wed) to 25-Sep (Fri) Asia Healthcare CDMO Day 2026 Up 30-Sep (Wed) Singapore Value Unlock Corporate 5-Oct (Mon) to 6-Oct (Tue) Vietnam Corporate Day 2026 Updat 3-Nov (Tue) to 6-Nov (Fri) APAC Healthcare Corporate Day 20 Korea KRX Kosdaq Corporate Day in 24-Nov (Tue) Singapore Korea KRX Kosdaq Corporate Day in 25-Nov (Wed) Kong 24-Nov (Tue) to 27-Nov (Fri) APAC Healthcare Corporate Day 20 30-Nov (Mon) to 1-Dec (Tue) India Corporate Day in Hong Kong 30-Nov (Mon) to 4-Dec (Fri) Japan Conference 2026 2-Dec (Wed) to 3-Dec (Thu) India Corporate Day in Singapore FIELD TRIPS Date & Time (HKT) Event 17-Sep (Thu) to 19-Sep (Sat) GS Make in India Trip 2026 2H26 GS China Commodity Trip (Se 21-Sep (Mon) to 24-Sep (Thu) Tour with Trina Chen) 21-Sep (Mon) to 24-Sep (Thu) GS Asia LNG Tour 22-Sep (Tue) to 24-Sep (Thu) GS China Biopharma Investor Trip GS Asia Healthcare CDMO Tour - Sa 25-Sep (Fri) Application Center 14-Oct (Wed) GS Power Semi-Rohm Sic Factory To 3-Nov (Tue) GS China CIO Tour New! 7-Dec (Mon) to 11- Dec (Fri) GS Asia Tech Tour New! INTERNATIONAL Date & Time Event https://marquee.gs.com/s/content/markets/39ceae9f-b6a7-4dd4-a05f-b9cf61e1fe08 2/7 2026/9/14 10:30 ⾼盛晨读 | 加息预期变化 | 紧缩周期中美股表现 | 半导体/光模块/缺电调研反馈 | 韩国科技板块反馈 18-Sep (Fri) Marathon Petroleum Corporation ( 5-Oct (Mon) to 9-Oct (Fri) Liberty Formula One (FWONK) 4-Nov (Wed) to 6-Nov (Fri) Tryg AS (TRYG.CO) EXPERT CALL Date & Time (HKT) Event GS China Property Expert Series: 17 Sep (Thu) @ 4:00pm HKT China Property 4Q Outlook - Are N policies Taking Effect? NON-DEAL ROADSHOWS / POST-RESULTS BRIEFING Date & Time (HKT) Event *For events with self-registration, your personalized pin code will be sent to your registered email. *I: In-person; V: Virtual; H: Hybrid AGRICULTURE Dekon Food and Agriculture Group 14-Sep (Mon) to 15-Sep (Tue) New! CONSUMER 29-Sep (Tue) - 30-Sep (Wed) Devyani International(DEVY.BO) FINANCIALS 14-Sep (Mon) to 17-Sep (Thu) Hyundai Marine & Fire (001450.KS) Industrial and Commercial Bank of 15-Sep (Tue) (ICBC) (1398.HK) New! China Bank and Broker 1H26 Post R 15-Sep (Tue) @ 9:30am HKT Series - Bank of Ningbo(宁波银⾏, 0 China Bank and Broker 1H26 Post R 16-Sep (Wed) @ 10:00am HKT Series - GF Securities (⼴发证券, 000776.SZ) New Dat

UBS-亚洲半导体洞察：联发科催化剂、8月销售、台积电与阿斯麦合作、联电硅光子-20260914.pdf

1. Sector Company Ac C tu o a n l s v . s. Au M g o u n s t t hly M sa o l M es ( % (N ) T$ Y m o n Y ) (%) % of U C B o S m e pa % ris o o f n Cons. Q U 22 B 6 Se - Q Q 3 o 2 Q 6 cha Q ng 4 e 26
2. Foundry T U S M M C C A In h - e lin a e d 5 2 1 5 4 ,0 ,8 4 0 5 5 1 5 0 .0 .1 % % 5 3 3 0 . . 3 7 % % 6 6 7 3 . . 4 1 % % 6 6 7 6 . . 7 0 % % 1 1 2 2 . . 0 6 % % 1 1 4 2 . . 8 8 % % 1 3 0 .2 .0 % %
3. Sep 2026 - UMC CPO SEMICON Leader in TFLN TFLN is emerging as the leading modulator candidate for 400G/lane and beyond, as conventional Si modulators face
4. Thin-Film Lithium Niobate bandwidth and thermal limitations. UMC is an early TFLN foundry leader, started in 2021, with 6" already in production
5. July 2026 - Q2 earnings call Mass production of 12" "Earlier this month, we announced the company's first mass production delivery of a 12-inch Photonics IC to a
6. July 2026 - Q2 earnings call Capacity commitment and "For Singapore, we will invest in the cleanroom for our P4 facility and the tool purchased to extend our silicon
7. July 2026 - UMC press release Silith and UMC collaboration UMC delivers first mass-produced silicon photonics wafers from UMC’s Singapore 12-inch fab, marking a step
8. of peers for 12 inch standard PDK to our customer in 2027, particularly in 12 inch. So, many of our competitors are, as of today, at 8 inch.

UBS-政策宽松之路：不太可能重演2024年9月-20260914.pdf

1. Figure 5: Top 40 global investors' positioning in Chinese Figure 6: Meanwhile, in relative terms, foreign funds are
2. equities dropped in 2026 due to stronger performances in much less underweight in China now compared to late
3. Figure 7: A solid 18% YoY YTD increase in industrial profits Figure 8: Equity market and USDCNY have come a long
4. Figure 9: Government spending contracted sequentially in Figure 10: A mild fiscal expansion in 1Q turned to a
5. Figure 11: RMB 1.8trn in special CGB and special LGB to be Figure 12: FAI in intellectual property, equipment purchase,
6. Industrial Capability and Competitiveness Advanced materials, core components and parts, basic software and industrial software, industrial machine tools, high-end
7. Integrated circuits, embodied AI, biomanufacturing, next-generation batteries, commercial aerospace, domestic large aircraft,
8. Major hydropower projects and integrated hydro-wind-solar bases, desert/Gobi renewable energy bases, offshore wind power,

UBS-中国互联网行业报告-20260914.pdf

1. 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 62-beF 62-raM 62-rpA 62-yaM 62-nuJ 62-luJ 62-guA 62-peS
2. include Meituan Rider (1P & 3P), Fengniao Rider (1P & 3P) and JD Instant Delivery (1P & 3P), Fengniao Rider (1P & 3P) and JD Instant Delivery Rider. Data as of 6 Sep
3. Source: QuestMobile, UBS. Note: Quick commerce rider apps include Meituan Rider (1P & 3P), Fengniao Rider (1P & 3P) and JD Instant Delivery Rider. Data as of 6 Sep 2026.
4. 42-naJ 42-raM 42-yaM 42-luJ 42-peS 42-voN 52-naJ 52-raM 52-yaM 52-luJ 52-peS 52-voN 62-naJ 62-raM 62-yaM 62-luJ 62-peS
5. Rider (1P & 3P), Fengniao Rider (1P & 3P) and JD Instant Delivery Rider. Data as of 6 Rider (1P & 3P), Fengniao Rider (1P & 3P) and JD Instant Delivery Rider. Data as of 6
6. 52-naJ 52-raM 52-yaM 52-luJ 52-peS 52-voN 62-naJ 62-raM 62-yaM 62-luJ 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 62-beF 62-raM 62-rpA 62-yaM 62-nuJ 62-luJ 62-guA
7. Source: QuestMobile, UBS. Note: Quick commerce rider apps include Meituan Rider Source: QuestMobile, UBS. Note: Quick commerce rider apps include Meituan1P
8. 4 2 -n aJ 4 2 -rp A 4 2 -lu J 4 2 -tcO 5 2 -n aJ 5 2 -rp A 5 2 -lu J 5 2 -tcO 6 2 -n aJ 6 2 -rp A 6 2 -lu J 4 2 -n a J 4 2 -rp A 4 2 -lu J 4 2 -tcO 5 2 -n a J 5 2 -rp A 5 2 -lu J 5 2 -tcO 6 2 -n a J 6 2 -rp A 6 2 -lu J

文档

Views and Research.pdf

• 状态：skipped_existing
• 错误：
• 本地资源：Views and Research.pdf

总结

1. Finally, while the recent rise in energy prices has had a limited impact on these G3 currencies, we note there is a clear effect on some more vulnerable EM currencies l
2. We added a 25bp rate hike at this week’s September FOMC meeting to our forecast last Friday following the August CPI report. The report had little impact on our
3. nearly 90%, high enough that the FOMC will likely want to avoid the market reaction that would likely follow from remaining on hold. We continue to expect two cu
4. December (vs. June and December previously). We have also raised our forecast for the terminal rate to 3.25-3.5% (vs. 3-3.25% previously).
5. We do not see a strong economic case for raising the funds rate. We think that all of the overshoot of 2% can be attributed to one-time factors whose impact is lik
6. a roughly 2.5% pace over the last three months is an early sign of this, that high inflation looks broad-based mainly because of tariff effects, that inflation expectat
7. i) Buy 6mnth Downside in USDJPY + EURJPY: Cleanest expression of the JPY stronger-trade -> i) Buy 6m 140 USDJPY Digi Put for 11.15% USD (Max leverage ~9x);
8. ii) JPY Stronger through FX Correlation: USDJPY Lower, USD Stronger vs EUR + AUD -> i) Buy 11 Dec Dual Binary EURUSD < ATMS vs USDJPY < 150 for 8% USD (Max 12.5x l

预览

Views and Research.pdf

巴克莱-中国科技行业-林深见鹿·2026年二季度全景洞察+20260910.pdf

• 状态：skipped_existing
• 错误：
• 本地资源：巴克莱-中国科技行业-林深见鹿·2026年二季度全景洞察+20260910.pdf

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巴克莱-中国科技行业-林深见鹿·2026年二季度全景洞察+20260910.pdf

伯恩斯坦-智能体商业（Agentic+Commerce）看空逻辑重现-危中有机+20260910.pdf

• 状态：skipped_existing
• 错误：
• 本地资源：伯恩斯坦-智能体商业（Agentic+Commerce）看空逻辑重现-危中有机+20260910.pdf

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伯恩斯坦-智能体商业（Agentic+Commerce）看空逻辑重现-危中有机+20260910.pdf

大摩-AI供应链：2028年AI半导体初步预测对比云服务商资本开支增长+20260910.pdf

• 状态：skipped_existing
• 错误：
• 本地资源：大摩-AI供应链：2028年AI半导体初步预测对比云服务商资本开支增长+20260910.pdf

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大摩-AI供应链：2028年AI半导体初步预测对比云服务商资本开支增长+20260910.pdf

大摩-中国股票策略：宏观逆风下A股情绪维持疲弱+20260910.pdf

• 状态：skipped_existing
• 错误：
• 本地资源：大摩-中国股票策略：宏观逆风下A股情绪维持疲弱+20260910.pdf

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大摩-中国股票策略：宏观逆风下A股情绪维持疲弱+20260910.pdf

高盛晨读 - 加息预期变化 - 紧缩周期中美股表现 - 半导体-光模块-缺电调研....pdf

• 状态：skipped_existing
• 错误：
• 本地资源：高盛晨读 - 加息预期变化 - 紧缩周期中美股表现 - 半导体-光模块-缺电调研....pdf

总结

要点：AI顺⻛推动MLCC与ABF载板⾛强…SEMCO – US NDR Takeaways: AI tailwinds driving MLCC and ABF strength – Buy 汽⻋|侯雪婷Tina 中国乘⽤⻋⽉度图评: 2026年8⽉ - 强劲出⼝增⻓持续但国内零售销量⾛弱，⽐亚迪改款⻋型提价…China Passenger Vehicle Monthly Chartbook: Aug 2026 - Strong ex 近期⼤会 Date Event CONFERENCES & CORPORATE DAYS 23-Sep (Wed) to 25-Sep (Fri) Asia Healthcare CDMO Day 2026 Up 30-Sep (Wed) Singapore Value Unlock Corporate 5-Oct (Mon) to 6-Oct (Tue) Vietnam Corporate Day 2026 Updat 3-Nov (Tue) to 6-Nov (Fri) APAC Healthcare Corporate Day 20 Korea KRX Kosdaq Corporate Day in 24-Nov (Tue) Singapore Korea KRX Kosdaq Corporate Day in 25-Nov (Wed) Kong 24-Nov (Tue) to 27-Nov (Fri) APAC Healthcare Corporate Day 20 30-Nov (Mon) to 1-Dec (Tue) India Corporate Day in Hong Kong 30-Nov (Mon) to 4-Dec (Fri) Japan Conference 2026 2-Dec (Wed) to 3-Dec (Thu) India Corporate Day in Singapore FIELD TRIPS Date & Time (HKT) Event 17-Sep (Thu) to 19-Sep (Sat) GS Make in India Trip 2026 2H26 GS China Commodity Trip (Se 21-Sep (Mon) to 24-Sep (Thu) Tour with Trina Chen) 21-Sep (Mon) to 24-Sep (Thu) GS Asia LNG Tour 22-Sep (Tue) to 24-Sep (Thu) GS China Biopharma Investor Trip GS Asia Healthcare CDMO Tour - Sa 25-Sep (Fri) Application Center 14-Oct (Wed) GS Power Semi-Rohm Sic Factory To 3-Nov (Tue) GS China CIO Tour New! 7-Dec (Mon) to 11- Dec (Fri) GS Asia Tech Tour New! INTERNATIONAL Date & Time Event https://marquee.gs.com/s/content/markets/39ceae9f-b6a7-4dd4-a05f-b9cf61e1fe08 2/7 2026/9/14 10:30 ⾼盛晨读 | 加息预期变化 | 紧缩周期中美股表现 | 半导体/光模块/缺电调研反馈 | 韩国科技板块反馈 18-Sep (Fri) Marathon Petroleum Corporation ( 5-Oct (Mon) to 9-Oct (Fri) Liberty Formula One (FWONK) 4-Nov (Wed) to 6-Nov (Fri) Tryg AS (TRYG.CO) EXPERT CALL Date & Time (HKT) Event GS China Property Expert Series: 17 Sep (Thu) @ 4:00pm HKT China Property 4Q Outlook - Are N policies Taking Effect? NON-DEAL ROADSHOWS / POST-RESULTS BRIEFING Date & Time (HKT) Event *For events with self-registration, your personalized pin code will be sent to your registered email. *I: In-person; V: Virtual; H: Hybrid AGRICULTURE Dekon Food and Agriculture Group 14-Sep (Mon) to 15-Sep (Tue) New! CONSUMER 29-Sep (Tue) - 30-Sep (Wed) Devyani International(DEVY.BO) FINANCIALS 14-Sep (Mon) to 17-Sep (Thu) Hyundai Marine & Fire (001450.KS) Industrial and Commercial Bank of 15-Sep (Tue) (ICBC) (1398.HK) New! China Bank and Broker 1H26 Post R 15-Sep (Tue) @ 9:30am HKT Series - Bank of Ningbo(宁波银⾏, 0 China Bank and Broker 1H26 Post R 16-Sep (Wed) @ 10:00am HKT Series - GF Securities (⼴发证券, 000776.SZ) New Dat

预览

高盛晨读 - 加息预期变化 - 紧缩周期中美股表现 - 半导体-光模块-缺电调研....pdf

UBS-亚洲半导体洞察：联发科催化剂、8月销售、台积电与阿斯麦合作、联电硅光子-20260914.pdf

• 状态：skipped_existing
• 错误：
• 本地资源：UBS-亚洲半导体洞察：联发科催化剂、8月销售、台积电与阿斯麦合作、联电硅光子-20260914.pdf

总结

1. Sector Company Ac C tu o a n l s v . s. Au M g o u n s t t hly M sa o l M es ( % (N ) T$ Y m o n Y ) (%) % of U C B o S m e pa % ris o o f n Cons. Q U 22 B 6 Se - Q Q 3 o 2 Q 6 cha Q ng 4 e 26
2. Foundry T U S M M C C A In h - e lin a e d 5 2 1 5 4 ,0 ,8 4 0 5 5 1 5 0 .0 .1 % % 5 3 3 0 . . 3 7 % % 6 6 7 3 . . 4 1 % % 6 6 7 6 . . 7 0 % % 1 1 2 2 . . 0 6 % % 1 1 4 2 . . 8 8 % % 1 3 0 .2 .0 % %
3. Sep 2026 - UMC CPO SEMICON Leader in TFLN TFLN is emerging as the leading modulator candidate for 400G/lane and beyond, as conventional Si modulators face
4. Thin-Film Lithium Niobate bandwidth and thermal limitations. UMC is an early TFLN foundry leader, started in 2021, with 6" already in production
5. July 2026 - Q2 earnings call Mass production of 12" "Earlier this month, we announced the company's first mass production delivery of a 12-inch Photonics IC to a
6. July 2026 - Q2 earnings call Capacity commitment and "For Singapore, we will invest in the cleanroom for our P4 facility and the tool purchased to extend our silicon
7. July 2026 - UMC press release Silith and UMC collaboration UMC delivers first mass-produced silicon photonics wafers from UMC’s Singapore 12-inch fab, marking a step
8. of peers for 12 inch standard PDK to our customer in 2027, particularly in 12 inch. So, many of our competitors are, as of today, at 8 inch.

预览

UBS-亚洲半导体洞察：联发科催化剂、8月销售、台积电与阿斯麦合作、联电硅光子-20260914.pdf

UBS-政策宽松之路：不太可能重演2024年9月-20260914.pdf

• 状态：skipped_existing
• 错误：
• 本地资源：UBS-政策宽松之路：不太可能重演2024年9月-20260914.pdf

总结

1. Figure 5: Top 40 global investors' positioning in Chinese Figure 6: Meanwhile, in relative terms, foreign funds are
2. equities dropped in 2026 due to stronger performances in much less underweight in China now compared to late
3. Figure 7: A solid 18% YoY YTD increase in industrial profits Figure 8: Equity market and USDCNY have come a long
4. Figure 9: Government spending contracted sequentially in Figure 10: A mild fiscal expansion in 1Q turned to a
5. Figure 11: RMB 1.8trn in special CGB and special LGB to be Figure 12: FAI in intellectual property, equipment purchase,
6. Industrial Capability and Competitiveness Advanced materials, core components and parts, basic software and industrial software, industrial machine tools, high-end
7. Integrated circuits, embodied AI, biomanufacturing, next-generation batteries, commercial aerospace, domestic large aircraft,
8. Major hydropower projects and integrated hydro-wind-solar bases, desert/Gobi renewable energy bases, offshore wind power,

预览

UBS-政策宽松之路：不太可能重演2024年9月-20260914.pdf

UBS-中国互联网行业报告-20260914.pdf

• 状态：skipped_existing
• 错误：
• 本地资源：UBS-中国互联网行业报告-20260914.pdf

总结

1. 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 62-beF 62-raM 62-rpA 62-yaM 62-nuJ 62-luJ 62-guA 62-peS
2. include Meituan Rider (1P & 3P), Fengniao Rider (1P & 3P) and JD Instant Delivery (1P & 3P), Fengniao Rider (1P & 3P) and JD Instant Delivery Rider. Data as of 6 Sep
3. Source: QuestMobile, UBS. Note: Quick commerce rider apps include Meituan Rider (1P & 3P), Fengniao Rider (1P & 3P) and JD Instant Delivery Rider. Data as of 6 Sep 2026.
4. 42-naJ 42-raM 42-yaM 42-luJ 42-peS 42-voN 52-naJ 52-raM 52-yaM 52-luJ 52-peS 52-voN 62-naJ 62-raM 62-yaM 62-luJ 62-peS
5. Rider (1P & 3P), Fengniao Rider (1P & 3P) and JD Instant Delivery Rider. Data as of 6 Rider (1P & 3P), Fengniao Rider (1P & 3P) and JD Instant Delivery Rider. Data as of 6
6. 52-naJ 52-raM 52-yaM 52-luJ 52-peS 52-voN 62-naJ 62-raM 62-yaM 62-luJ 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 62-beF 62-raM 62-rpA 62-yaM 62-nuJ 62-luJ 62-guA
7. Source: QuestMobile, UBS. Note: Quick commerce rider apps include Meituan Rider Source: QuestMobile, UBS. Note: Quick commerce rider apps include Meituan1P
8. 4 2 -n aJ 4 2 -rp A 4 2 -lu J 4 2 -tcO 5 2 -n aJ 5 2 -rp A 5 2 -lu J 5 2 -tcO 6 2 -n aJ 6 2 -rp A 6 2 -lu J 4 2 -n a J 4 2 -rp A 4 2 -lu J 4 2 -tcO 5 2 -n a J 5 2 -rp A 5 2 -lu J 5 2 -tcO 6 2 -n a J 6 2 -rp A 6 2 -lu J

预览

UBS-中国互联网行业报告-20260914.pdf