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附件总结 UBS-2Q26财报季后：杠铃策略更受青睐-20260914.pdf

  1. Figure 10: FY26 earnings revision in the past 1 month Figure 11: Average crowding scores of China AI hardware
  2. Figure 13: China banks forward DPS and payout ratio Figure 14: China banks forward div yield vs China 10Y yield
  3. Figure 17: Forward earnings growth - going global stocks Figure 18: FX headwind may moderate for exporters in 2H
  4. Figure 19: China overall and automobile retail sales YoY Figure 20: A share companies average wage growth
  5. Figure 21: Ex-tech, ex- financials, ex-upstream earnings Figure 22: A share tech and non tech turnover
  6. Figure 23: MSCI China quarterly revenue & earnings YoY Figure 24: MSCI China trailing net and gross margin
  7. Figure 31: Trailing capex YoY growth by sector Figure 32: Trailing SG&A expense YoY growth by sector
  8. Figure 33: FY1 earnings revision ratio (breadth) Figure 34: 12-month forward earnings revisions in the past

UBS-AI数据中心功率半导体深度研究-20260914.pdf

  1. Power delivery 1-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC Power sidecar Power sidecar 3-Phase 3-Phase Power sidecar
  2. $ content per GW 7 4,178,133 9 3,661,300 9 9,662,229 1 21,769,339 1 19,661,888 1 69,687,556 1 72,117,109 1 14,492,000 1 08,108,051 1 49,500,659
  3. Rack architecture Torus Cube Torus Cube Torus Cube Torus Cube Torus Cube Torus Cube 2D Torus 2D Torus 3D Torus 3D Torus
  4. Power delivery 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC Power sidecar 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC Power sidecar
  5. $ content per GW 1 04,991,600 9 8,950,320 1 40,384,747 1 36,376,056 1 03,906,675 1 66,773,872 9 7,048,178 9 8,899,815 1 13,281,858 1 21,718,150
  6. Power delivery 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC Power sidecar 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC
  7. $ content per GW 1 52,815,500 1 20,042,600 1 22,188,832 1 28,069,062 1 33,232,603 1 50,178,247 1 66,440,048 1 58,971,968 1 16,321,645 1 05,125,422 1 47,770,924 1 42,582,560
  8. we assume discrete represents 45% of board space of components that are integrated into modules e.g. capacitors, inductors

UBS-SemiBytes：AI热点、高通、安森美、英伟达-20260914.pdf

  1. Following a series of negative headlines in recent weeks around data center permitting, timothy.arcuri@ubs.com
  2. estimate revenue expectations in semis that imply something on the order of ~380GW +1-310-734 2455
  3. of capacity to be added in the 5yr period from C2026 (~30GW) to C2030 (~120GW). In Natalia Winkler, CFA
  4. off-grid capacity adds. Even using C2028 as a base, the conclusion is similar - one has to +1-415-352 4626
  5. any slowdown in powered shell infrastructure deployment so this is clearly a big new risk gianmarco.vella@ubs.com
  6. factor. At the same time though, major frontier labs have very recently moved forward +1-415-352 4555
  7. unless other countries take similar approaches to gate the pace of deployment, there +1-212-821 6481
  8. with a major hyperscaler that includes warrants – in this case a $60B framework deal Associate Analyst

UBS-韩国化妆品：亚马逊畅销榜趋势依然稳健-20260914.pdf

  1. UBS Evidence Lab dataset ( > Access Dataset, released 11 Sep) , which tracks Amazon jennifer.han@ubs.com
  2. bestseller rankings daily and aggregates them weekly, shows Medicube continuing to +82-2-3702 8802
  3. Figure 1: Share of Top 100 in US Facial Moisturizers Figure 2: Top brands in Top 100 of US Facial Moisturizers
  4. Source: UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset) Note: Shares are calculated by Source: UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset)
  5. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Seoul Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,
  6. Evidence Lab collects data from Amazon bestseller lists across 100+ categories of interest and
  7. d'Alba Global: Our price target is derived from a target PE multiple. Key downside risks are 1)
  8. is relatively easy to replicate at lower price points. Key upside risks are 1) faster than expected

MS-基础机器人系列：执行器——机器人肌肉需求-美国复兴之路-20260913.pdf

  1. We see 4 reshoring avenues and 3 possible scenarios playing out, += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered
  2. e5202 e6202 e7202 e8202 e9202 e0302 e1302 e2302 e3302 e4302 e5302 e6302 e7302 e8302 e9302 e0402 e1402 e2402 e3402 e4402 e5402 e6402 e7402 e8402 e9402 e0502
  3. Note: BoM assumption is based on the latest spec for Tesla's Optimus, i.e. Gen 2 body parts (30 Degree of Freedom (DoF) by 14 rotary
  4. actuators and 14 linear actuators) and Gen 3 dexterous hand (22 DoF each hand with tendon + micro planetary roller screw for actuation and
  5. e5202 e6202 e7202 e8202 e9202 e0302 e1302 e2302 e3302 e4302 e5302 e6302 e7302 e8302 e9302 e0402 e1402 e2402 e3402 e4402 e5402 e6402 e7402 e8402 e9402 e0502
  6. e v e R s r e c u d $ $ 1 1 0 5 0 0 , , 0 0 0 0 0 0 x 8 1 1 x 7 6 x 5 1 1 s te n g a M h tr $ $ $ 1 1 2 0 5 0 , , , 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 x 5 2 6 x x 6 2 8
  7. e5202 e6202 e7202 e8202 e9202 e0302 e1302 e2302 e3302 e4302 e5302 e6302 e7302 e8302 e9302 e0402 e1402 e2402 e3402 e4402 e5402 e6402 e7402 e8402 e9402 e0502
  8. Exhibit 28: Bull/Base/Bear Estimates for US Robotics Unit Sales Exhibit 29: Bull/Base/Bear Estimates for US Robotics Unit Sales

MS-特斯拉Semi拓欧洲-8月LTL货运及卡车订单更新-20260914.pdf

  1. about 1 kWh per kilometer and a vehicle weight of roughly 9,100 kg without a trailer Laguna Conference Preview: Pause or Play?
  2. minutes using its Megacharger network, which can deliver up to 800 kW. Tesla Freight Transportation: State of the Global
  3. U.S. deliveries to customers including PepsiCo in late 2022. The Tesla Semi itself is Freight Transportation: Truck Stop/TLFI:
  4. now finally moving toward higher-volume production, with Tesla confirming Semi September Demand Starts to Stir (9 Sep 2026)
  5. remains on track as of 2Q26 earnings. More importantly, CEO Elon Musk provided a Autos & Shared Mobility: Global Trucks:
  6. timeline for offering self-driving Tesla Semi, expecting the capability by 2027. We Demand Firing, Valuations Uninspiring –
  7. YoY Tonnage Growth 2-Year Stack JA3Q uulg2 ' 2 6'26 M6Se Tonn -- 0 a 01 . g .. 290 e %%% / Day SWh +++ ei 112pig ...m 570 h %%%etn /t Ship --- 123Dm ...a 240 ey %%% nts/ Tonn +++ a 798 g ... 401 e %%% / Day SW ++h + e 11i 9 pi 41 g . m 0..08 h % e %% tn /t Ship --- 143Dm ...a 503 ey %%% nts/ Tonn +++ a 987 g ... 278 e %%% / Day SWh +++ ei 577pig ...m 550 h %%%etn /t Shi +++ pD 310 ma ... 518 ey %%% nts/ Tonn +++ a 435 g ... 978 e %%% / Day SWh --- ei 110pi ... gm 082 h %%%etn /t Shi ++ p 6 D 55 m .0 a ..79 e % y %% nts/
  8. MW Ticker Price Beta $M Traded Traded/Day ($Bil.)a YTD Chg 1-Wk 1-Mo 3-Mo Current Rank 52wk High - Low 52wk High52wk Low

MS-月度数据手册：3Q iPhone-iPad出货量预测维持不变；新增4Q预测-20260914.pdf

  1. 3Q26e iPad build unchanged 12M units (-8% q/q, -14% y/y). Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2860
  2. for introduction in 1H27. We introduce our 4Q26 iPhone build estimate at 73M Industry View In-Line
  3. iPhone SE3 / SE 5G / 16e / 17e 1 .0 2.0 5.0 3.0 11.0 4.0 9.0 4.0 1.0 18.0 2.0 1 0.0 8.0 5.0 25.0
  4. i i P P h h o o n n e e 1 1 4 4 P P r r o o M (6 a .1 x " ) (6.7") 2 2 . . 0 0 2 2 . . 0 0 1 1 . . 0 0 1 1 . . 0 0 6 6 . . 0 0 1 1 . . 0 0 1 1 . . 0 0 1 1 . . 0 0 - - 3 3 . . 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
  5. iPhone 16 Plus (6.7") - - 5.0 6.0 11.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 - 8.0 - - - - - Research as only a single factor in making their investment
  6. iPhone 16 Pro Max (6.9") - - 4.0 2 6.0 30.0 16.5 13.0 1 0.0 4.0 43.5 5.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 11.0 decision.
  7. iPhone 17 Pro (6.3") - - - - - - - 8.0 22.0 30.0 18.0 13.0 9.0 4.0 44.0 For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
  8. QoQ -36% -19% 38% 35% -32% -7% 18% 38% -26% -7% 4% 35% += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered

SemiAnalysis-短堆叠胜出：为何4-hi HBM赢得未来-20260914.pdf

  1. burden is also reduced significantly by quantizing down to 4 bit quarter precision from 16/8
  2. though 4-hi can deliver lower concurrency, the faster token/s/user wholly or partially offsets
  3. HBM. Then when the interactivity is doubled further to 213 tok/s/user, there is no benefit to
  4. a present workload on a future system to show that 4-hi is sufficient. It will only be a year
  5. better. 12-hi can deliver 47% more total tokens than 4-hi, and 8-hi delivers 36% more tokens,
  6. Second, if 4-hi accelerators become a significant part of the AI server accelerator installed
  7. design, and their calling for 4-hi reflects that future models are heading in a direction that
  8. get the same bandwidth from a 4-hi stack as an 8-hi or 12-hi stack, in simple terms the 4-hi

Top Stories.pdf

    1. China’s spy agency has warned that AI could pose a risk to the country’s political and social security,
    1. The CMBS market is being reshaped by a surge in data-center deals, forcing investors to grapple with
    1. A year after shifting production and sourcing out of China to avoid higher U.S. tariffs, some companies
  4. Central Bank’s 28-year history, with a “grand package” over its three top roles expected to be agreed by
    1. Just as Ukraine was learning how to parry Russia’s drone attacks, Moscow has moved the goal posts
    1. Donald Trump played down the idea of further guardrails in most advanced AI models, saying the US
    1. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to nearly 5% this week, reaching its highest level since October
    1. Following an above-consensus CPI print, our economists expect a 25 bp hike at the FOMC meeting

文档

UBS-2Q26财报季后：杠铃策略更受青睐-20260914.pdf

总结

  1. Figure 10: FY26 earnings revision in the past 1 month Figure 11: Average crowding scores of China AI hardware
  2. Figure 13: China banks forward DPS and payout ratio Figure 14: China banks forward div yield vs China 10Y yield
  3. Figure 17: Forward earnings growth - going global stocks Figure 18: FX headwind may moderate for exporters in 2H
  4. Figure 19: China overall and automobile retail sales YoY Figure 20: A share companies average wage growth
  5. Figure 21: Ex-tech, ex- financials, ex-upstream earnings Figure 22: A share tech and non tech turnover
  6. Figure 23: MSCI China quarterly revenue & earnings YoY Figure 24: MSCI China trailing net and gross margin
  7. Figure 31: Trailing capex YoY growth by sector Figure 32: Trailing SG&A expense YoY growth by sector
  8. Figure 33: FY1 earnings revision ratio (breadth) Figure 34: 12-month forward earnings revisions in the past

预览

UBS-2Q26财报季后：杠铃策略更受青睐-20260914.pdf

UBS-AI数据中心功率半导体深度研究-20260914.pdf

总结

  1. Power delivery 1-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC Power sidecar Power sidecar 3-Phase 3-Phase Power sidecar
  2. $ content per GW 7 4,178,133 9 3,661,300 9 9,662,229 1 21,769,339 1 19,661,888 1 69,687,556 1 72,117,109 1 14,492,000 1 08,108,051 1 49,500,659
  3. Rack architecture Torus Cube Torus Cube Torus Cube Torus Cube Torus Cube Torus Cube 2D Torus 2D Torus 3D Torus 3D Torus
  4. Power delivery 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC Power sidecar 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC Power sidecar
  5. $ content per GW 1 04,991,600 9 8,950,320 1 40,384,747 1 36,376,056 1 03,906,675 1 66,773,872 9 7,048,178 9 8,899,815 1 13,281,858 1 21,718,150
  6. Power delivery 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC Power sidecar 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC 3-phase AC
  7. $ content per GW 1 52,815,500 1 20,042,600 1 22,188,832 1 28,069,062 1 33,232,603 1 50,178,247 1 66,440,048 1 58,971,968 1 16,321,645 1 05,125,422 1 47,770,924 1 42,582,560
  8. we assume discrete represents 45% of board space of components that are integrated into modules e.g. capacitors, inductors

预览

UBS-AI数据中心功率半导体深度研究-20260914.pdf

UBS-SemiBytes：AI热点、高通、安森美、英伟达-20260914.pdf

总结

  1. Following a series of negative headlines in recent weeks around data center permitting, timothy.arcuri@ubs.com
  2. estimate revenue expectations in semis that imply something on the order of ~380GW +1-310-734 2455
  3. of capacity to be added in the 5yr period from C2026 (~30GW) to C2030 (~120GW). In Natalia Winkler, CFA
  4. off-grid capacity adds. Even using C2028 as a base, the conclusion is similar - one has to +1-415-352 4626
  5. any slowdown in powered shell infrastructure deployment so this is clearly a big new risk gianmarco.vella@ubs.com
  6. factor. At the same time though, major frontier labs have very recently moved forward +1-415-352 4555
  7. unless other countries take similar approaches to gate the pace of deployment, there +1-212-821 6481
  8. with a major hyperscaler that includes warrants – in this case a $60B framework deal Associate Analyst

预览

UBS-SemiBytes：AI热点、高通、安森美、英伟达-20260914.pdf

UBS-韩国化妆品：亚马逊畅销榜趋势依然稳健-20260914.pdf

总结

  1. UBS Evidence Lab dataset ( > Access Dataset, released 11 Sep) , which tracks Amazon jennifer.han@ubs.com
  2. bestseller rankings daily and aggregates them weekly, shows Medicube continuing to +82-2-3702 8802
  3. Figure 1: Share of Top 100 in US Facial Moisturizers Figure 2: Top brands in Top 100 of US Facial Moisturizers
  4. Source: UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset) Note: Shares are calculated by Source: UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset)
  5. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Seoul Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,
  6. Evidence Lab collects data from Amazon bestseller lists across 100+ categories of interest and
  7. d'Alba Global: Our price target is derived from a target PE multiple. Key downside risks are 1)
  8. is relatively easy to replicate at lower price points. Key upside risks are 1) faster than expected

预览

UBS-韩国化妆品：亚马逊畅销榜趋势依然稳健-20260914.pdf

MS-基础机器人系列：执行器——机器人肌肉需求-美国复兴之路-20260913.pdf

总结

  1. We see 4 reshoring avenues and 3 possible scenarios playing out, += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered
  2. e5202 e6202 e7202 e8202 e9202 e0302 e1302 e2302 e3302 e4302 e5302 e6302 e7302 e8302 e9302 e0402 e1402 e2402 e3402 e4402 e5402 e6402 e7402 e8402 e9402 e0502
  3. Note: BoM assumption is based on the latest spec for Tesla's Optimus, i.e. Gen 2 body parts (30 Degree of Freedom (DoF) by 14 rotary
  4. actuators and 14 linear actuators) and Gen 3 dexterous hand (22 DoF each hand with tendon + micro planetary roller screw for actuation and
  5. e5202 e6202 e7202 e8202 e9202 e0302 e1302 e2302 e3302 e4302 e5302 e6302 e7302 e8302 e9302 e0402 e1402 e2402 e3402 e4402 e5402 e6402 e7402 e8402 e9402 e0502
  6. e v e R s r e c u d $ $ 1 1 0 5 0 0 , , 0 0 0 0 0 0 x 8 1 1 x 7 6 x 5 1 1 s te n g a M h tr $ $ $ 1 1 2 0 5 0 , , , 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 x 5 2 6 x x 6 2 8
  7. e5202 e6202 e7202 e8202 e9202 e0302 e1302 e2302 e3302 e4302 e5302 e6302 e7302 e8302 e9302 e0402 e1402 e2402 e3402 e4402 e5402 e6402 e7402 e8402 e9402 e0502
  8. Exhibit 28: Bull/Base/Bear Estimates for US Robotics Unit Sales Exhibit 29: Bull/Base/Bear Estimates for US Robotics Unit Sales

预览

MS-基础机器人系列：执行器——机器人肌肉需求-美国复兴之路-20260913.pdf

MS-特斯拉Semi拓欧洲-8月LTL货运及卡车订单更新-20260914.pdf

总结

  1. about 1 kWh per kilometer and a vehicle weight of roughly 9,100 kg without a trailer Laguna Conference Preview: Pause or Play?
  2. minutes using its Megacharger network, which can deliver up to 800 kW. Tesla Freight Transportation: State of the Global
  3. U.S. deliveries to customers including PepsiCo in late 2022. The Tesla Semi itself is Freight Transportation: Truck Stop/TLFI:
  4. now finally moving toward higher-volume production, with Tesla confirming Semi September Demand Starts to Stir (9 Sep 2026)
  5. remains on track as of 2Q26 earnings. More importantly, CEO Elon Musk provided a Autos & Shared Mobility: Global Trucks:
  6. timeline for offering self-driving Tesla Semi, expecting the capability by 2027. We Demand Firing, Valuations Uninspiring –
  7. YoY Tonnage Growth 2-Year Stack JA3Q uulg2 ' 2 6'26 M6Se Tonn -- 0 a 01 . g .. 290 e %%% / Day SWh +++ ei 112pig ...m 570 h %%%etn /t Ship --- 123Dm ...a 240 ey %%% nts/ Tonn +++ a 798 g ... 401 e %%% / Day SW ++h + e 11i 9 pi 41 g . m 0..08 h % e %% tn /t Ship --- 143Dm ...a 503 ey %%% nts/ Tonn +++ a 987 g ... 278 e %%% / Day SWh +++ ei 577pig ...m 550 h %%%etn /t Shi +++ pD 310 ma ... 518 ey %%% nts/ Tonn +++ a 435 g ... 978 e %%% / Day SWh --- ei 110pi ... gm 082 h %%%etn /t Shi ++ p 6 D 55 m .0 a ..79 e % y %% nts/
  8. MW Ticker Price Beta $M Traded Traded/Day ($Bil.)a YTD Chg 1-Wk 1-Mo 3-Mo Current Rank 52wk High - Low 52wk High52wk Low

预览

MS-特斯拉Semi拓欧洲-8月LTL货运及卡车订单更新-20260914.pdf

MS-月度数据手册：3Q iPhone-iPad出货量预测维持不变；新增4Q预测-20260914.pdf

总结

  1. 3Q26e iPad build unchanged 12M units (-8% q/q, -14% y/y). Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2860
  2. for introduction in 1H27. We introduce our 4Q26 iPhone build estimate at 73M Industry View In-Line
  3. iPhone SE3 / SE 5G / 16e / 17e 1 .0 2.0 5.0 3.0 11.0 4.0 9.0 4.0 1.0 18.0 2.0 1 0.0 8.0 5.0 25.0
  4. i i P P h h o o n n e e 1 1 4 4 P P r r o o M (6 a .1 x " ) (6.7") 2 2 . . 0 0 2 2 . . 0 0 1 1 . . 0 0 1 1 . . 0 0 6 6 . . 0 0 1 1 . . 0 0 1 1 . . 0 0 1 1 . . 0 0 - - 3 3 . . 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
  5. iPhone 16 Plus (6.7") - - 5.0 6.0 11.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 - 8.0 - - - - - Research as only a single factor in making their investment
  6. iPhone 16 Pro Max (6.9") - - 4.0 2 6.0 30.0 16.5 13.0 1 0.0 4.0 43.5 5.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 11.0 decision.
  7. iPhone 17 Pro (6.3") - - - - - - - 8.0 22.0 30.0 18.0 13.0 9.0 4.0 44.0 For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
  8. QoQ -36% -19% 38% 35% -32% -7% 18% 38% -26% -7% 4% 35% += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered

预览

MS-月度数据手册：3Q iPhone-iPad出货量预测维持不变；新增4Q预测-20260914.pdf

SemiAnalysis-短堆叠胜出：为何4-hi HBM赢得未来-20260914.pdf

总结

  1. burden is also reduced significantly by quantizing down to 4 bit quarter precision from 16/8
  2. though 4-hi can deliver lower concurrency, the faster token/s/user wholly or partially offsets
  3. HBM. Then when the interactivity is doubled further to 213 tok/s/user, there is no benefit to
  4. a present workload on a future system to show that 4-hi is sufficient. It will only be a year
  5. better. 12-hi can deliver 47% more total tokens than 4-hi, and 8-hi delivers 36% more tokens,
  6. Second, if 4-hi accelerators become a significant part of the AI server accelerator installed
  7. design, and their calling for 4-hi reflects that future models are heading in a direction that
  8. get the same bandwidth from a 4-hi stack as an 8-hi or 12-hi stack, in simple terms the 4-hi

预览

SemiAnalysis-短堆叠胜出：为何4-hi HBM赢得未来-20260914.pdf

Top Stories.pdf

总结

    1. China’s spy agency has warned that AI could pose a risk to the country’s political and social security,
    1. The CMBS market is being reshaped by a surge in data-center deals, forcing investors to grapple with
    1. A year after shifting production and sourcing out of China to avoid higher U.S. tariffs, some companies
  4. Central Bank’s 28-year history, with a “grand package” over its three top roles expected to be agreed by
    1. Just as Ukraine was learning how to parry Russia’s drone attacks, Moscow has moved the goal posts
    1. Donald Trump played down the idea of further guardrails in most advanced AI models, saying the US
    1. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to nearly 5% this week, reaching its highest level since October
    1. Following an above-consensus CPI print, our economists expect a 25 bp hike at the FOMC meeting

预览

Top Stories.pdf

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