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#量子计算 #宏观 #财政 #...

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附件总结 【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903.mp3

  1. 【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_导读
  2. terms GDP growth tax revenue fiscal expansion oil Prices property Prices 关注公众号 budgets spending government china 思维纪要 minister positions chief policy property sector policy support 公众号思维
  3. 日本讨论集中在汇率风险及其对股市的影响，尽管日元走势未引起市场大幅波动，投资者仍对汇率回归基本面持乐观态度。
  4. 对话围绕韩国住房市场政策的未来走向展开，讨论了可能的政策延续性及实施速度的不确定性，特别是提及贸易部长可能接任的关键角色，以及市场可能面临的监管加强和风险控制措施，这些因素将影响住房市场的改革进程。
  5. 油价需升至110-120美元才对区域经济产生显著负面影响，当前通胀温和，中央银行政策调整更多基于需求增长而非供应侧因素。
  6. 发言人1：The main challenges faced by China's household sector include an worsening household balance sheet, an increase in aggressive leveraging, contraction of household debt, slowing consumption, and the impact of property market challenges with falling property prices and a continuing recession.
  7. 发言人1：China's policymakers appear to be taking up fiscal consolidation, following their framework of providing policy support for exports and reducing it when exports recover. This approach has historically worked but is not yielding the same results in the current cycle due to a growth rate below 4.3 percent and negative contributions from exports, investment, and consumption.
  8. 发言人1：The government's approach to property market issues and household debt is considered inadequate because it involves contraction in property market investments and rising household problems due to falling property prices. The property sector's challenges are continuing to impact household wealth negatively, and without aggressive fiscal expansion, household debt could lead to deflation.

《海谈科技》量子计算专场——量子科技，会开启新一轮技术变革吗？ 260903.mp3

  1. 【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_导读
  2. terms GDP growth tax revenue fiscal expansion oil Prices property Prices 关注公众号 budgets spending government china 思维纪要 minister positions chief policy property sector policy support 公众号思维
  3. 日本讨论集中在汇率风险及其对股市的影响，尽管日元走势未引起市场大幅波动，投资者仍对汇率回归基本面持乐观态度。
  4. 对话围绕韩国住房市场政策的未来走向展开，讨论了可能的政策延续性及实施速度的不确定性，特别是提及贸易部长可能接任的关键角色，以及市场可能面临的监管加强和风险控制措施，这些因素将影响住房市场的改革进程。
  5. 油价需升至110-120美元才对区域经济产生显著负面影响，当前通胀温和，中央银行政策调整更多基于需求增长而非供应侧因素。
  6. 发言人1：The main challenges faced by China's household sector include an worsening household balance sheet, an increase in aggressive leveraging, contraction of household debt, slowing consumption, and the impact of property market challenges with falling property prices and a continuing recession.
  7. 发言人1：China's policymakers appear to be taking up fiscal consolidation, following their framework of providing policy support for exports and reducing it when exports recover. This approach has historically worked but is not yielding the same results in the current cycle due to a growth rate below 4.3 percent and negative contributions from exports, investment, and consumption.
  8. 发言人1：The government's approach to property market issues and household debt is considered inadequate because it involves contraction in property market investments and rising household problems due to falling property prices. The property sector's challenges are continuing to impact household wealth negatively, and without aggressive fiscal expansion, household debt could lead to deflation.

《海谈科技》量子计算专场——量子科技，会开启新一轮技术变革吗？ 260903_原文.docx

  1. 好，那桐首期从资本配置的角度，您怎么看待这场国际竞争当中我们产业投资方向的影响呢？
  2. 这个其实对产业的帮助肯定是非常明显的那另一个角度来讲，其实是整个资本对于产业关注高的话，其实可以把这块的，就我们看国一，其实它的整个研发人员待遇也逐步在提高了，是包括我们很多半导体产业。
  3. 这几年因为二级市场的火热，其实大家的收入待遇也都慢慢起来了，其实可以更好的去吸引更多优质的人才加入行业，我觉得一是资金吧，二是也给行业能够更好的留住人才提供了很多帮助，可能中长期可以给我们行业发展其实有比较大的一个帮助的，毕竟这个行业确实是人才密集型的行业，对，也需要一些资本的手段来留住这些优秀的人才。
  4. 那么加入AI以后能够加速到什么程度，然后是不是有一些量子的算法可以实现超过多项式，就像所谓的指数加速这一块，然后我们提供一些理论的知识，现在AI技术出来了以后，我们有一些量子资源，我们可以用AI agent来帮助优化，是主要做这方面的。
  5. 所以量子计算公司在一级市场上更多的不应该把关注度是放在融多少钱，而是应该是放在能做多少事情和能为国家解决什么样的一个问题，这是才是我们的重心，只有这样的才能对得起不管是资本市场还是国家给予我们这样的一个厚望和支持。
  6. 所以我们一般作为行业内人来讲的话，一般通过这三步，就是AI for quantum quantum spire的AI quantum for AI，好，那从从首席从投资的视角看，您觉得量子加AI是否会成为产业的一个加速器？
  7. 站在那之前其实可能关注度也很低，只有反映二级市场其实是之后的，对，我们资源配置可能更多需要教授，他们从学界的角度可能看的更准一些，我们更多是奖励这种收入已经有一定规模的企业。
  8. 另外有没有一些关键的一些，比如说现在的稀释制冷机，其实这种关键的一些设备能不能取得一个比较好的一个订单，这个可能是在未来我们希望看到的，这个也是真真实实未来能支撑股价的对现在大家从二级市场角度，现在真的政策是第一位。

【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_导读.docx

  1. 【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_导读
  2. terms GDP growth tax revenue fiscal expansion oil Prices property Prices 关注公众号 budgets spending government china 思维纪要 minister positions chief policy property sector policy support 公众号思维
  3. 日本讨论集中在汇率风险及其对股市的影响，尽管日元走势未引起市场大幅波动，投资者仍对汇率回归基本面持乐观态度。
  4. 对话围绕韩国住房市场政策的未来走向展开，讨论了可能的政策延续性及实施速度的不确定性，特别是提及贸易部长可能接任的关键角色，以及市场可能面临的监管加强和风险控制措施，这些因素将影响住房市场的改革进程。
  5. 油价需升至110-120美元才对区域经济产生显著负面影响，当前通胀温和，中央银行政策调整更多基于需求增长而非供应侧因素。
  6. 发言人1：The main challenges faced by China's household sector include an worsening household balance sheet, an increase in aggressive leveraging, contraction of household debt, slowing consumption, and the impact of property market challenges with falling property prices and a continuing recession.
  7. 发言人1：China's policymakers appear to be taking up fiscal consolidation, following their framework of providing policy support for exports and reducing it when exports recover. This approach has historically worked but is not yielding the same results in the current cycle due to a growth rate below 4.3 percent and negative contributions from exports, investment, and consumption.
  8. 发言人1：The government's approach to property market issues and household debt is considered inadequate because it involves contraction in property market investments and rising household problems due to falling property prices. The property sector's challenges are continuing to impact household wealth negatively, and without aggressive fiscal expansion, household debt could lead to deflation.

【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_原文.docx

  1. 【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_原文
  2. Good morning, everyone. Today is september thd thursday. Welcome to understand the asian amErica webcast. My name is WG asian EM.
  3. Before we start today, please know that this event is from mogan social clients and financial visor. IT is now for and the of of the press. If i'm on the press, please log and reach supply.
  4. Please also note that this assures courses may be recorded today. We have joined the garnet chief asian emerging market strategies, chicken iah, chief asia economist, capping old to create an have economists. During this session, you can send the questions anytime from the us question tax box for so we have chatter who publish the snow on on the delivering chAllenges in china.
  5. And then without do you may hand over to you chicken. thanks. Yeah hello everyone. Um so the the topic that I wanted to focus today was on china's policymakers effort to be leverage um the housework band sheet and at the same time, they appear to be taking up fiscal consolidation.
  6. So the state of china, the leveraging and at the same time, the implications of that from completion outlook perspective is what I venture cover. Um so what people will observe is that in the last uh two quarters, the household that situation seems to be worsening. IE that they are taking up a more aggressive leveraging.
  7. And so household that outstanding is now contracting. So far, what we have seen in the earlier face is that household death was uh uh, household death was growing at a pace lower than Normal GDP growth. But IT was going. And now with this contraction, this is uh become far more uh painful from growth perspective because as we see in the retail, the consumption has been slowing.
  8. Trading is very clear. Um and there's another question for请关注公众号思维纪要社，更多纪要请加V西安20210130。

音频总结

【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903.mp3

  1. 【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_导读
  2. terms GDP growth tax revenue fiscal expansion oil Prices property Prices 关注公众号 budgets spending government china 思维纪要 minister positions chief policy property sector policy support 公众号思维
  3. 日本讨论集中在汇率风险及其对股市的影响，尽管日元走势未引起市场大幅波动，投资者仍对汇率回归基本面持乐观态度。
  4. 对话围绕韩国住房市场政策的未来走向展开，讨论了可能的政策延续性及实施速度的不确定性，特别是提及贸易部长可能接任的关键角色，以及市场可能面临的监管加强和风险控制措施，这些因素将影响住房市场的改革进程。
  5. 油价需升至110-120美元才对区域经济产生显著负面影响，当前通胀温和，中央银行政策调整更多基于需求增长而非供应侧因素。
  6. 发言人1：The main challenges faced by China's household sector include an worsening household balance sheet, an increase in aggressive leveraging, contraction of household debt, slowing consumption, and the impact of property market challenges with falling property prices and a continuing recession.
  7. 发言人1：China's policymakers appear to be taking up fiscal consolidation, following their framework of providing policy support for exports and reducing it when exports recover. This approach has historically worked but is not yielding the same results in the current cycle due to a growth rate below 4.3 percent and negative contributions from exports, investment, and consumption.
  8. 发言人1：The government's approach to property market issues and household debt is considered inadequate because it involves contraction in property market investments and rising household problems due to falling property prices. The property sector's challenges are continuing to impact household wealth negatively, and without aggressive fiscal expansion, household debt could lead to deflation.

《海谈科技》量子计算专场——量子科技，会开启新一轮技术变革吗？ 260903.mp3

  1. 【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_导读
  2. terms GDP growth tax revenue fiscal expansion oil Prices property Prices 关注公众号 budgets spending government china 思维纪要 minister positions chief policy property sector policy support 公众号思维
  3. 日本讨论集中在汇率风险及其对股市的影响，尽管日元走势未引起市场大幅波动，投资者仍对汇率回归基本面持乐观态度。
  4. 对话围绕韩国住房市场政策的未来走向展开，讨论了可能的政策延续性及实施速度的不确定性，特别是提及贸易部长可能接任的关键角色，以及市场可能面临的监管加强和风险控制措施，这些因素将影响住房市场的改革进程。
  5. 油价需升至110-120美元才对区域经济产生显著负面影响，当前通胀温和，中央银行政策调整更多基于需求增长而非供应侧因素。
  6. 发言人1：The main challenges faced by China's household sector include an worsening household balance sheet, an increase in aggressive leveraging, contraction of household debt, slowing consumption, and the impact of property market challenges with falling property prices and a continuing recession.
  7. 发言人1：China's policymakers appear to be taking up fiscal consolidation, following their framework of providing policy support for exports and reducing it when exports recover. This approach has historically worked but is not yielding the same results in the current cycle due to a growth rate below 4.3 percent and negative contributions from exports, investment, and consumption.
  8. 发言人1：The government's approach to property market issues and household debt is considered inadequate because it involves contraction in property market investments and rising household problems due to falling property prices. The property sector's challenges are continuing to impact household wealth negatively, and without aggressive fiscal expansion, household debt could lead to deflation.

音频

【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903.mp3

总结

  1. 【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_导读
  2. terms GDP growth tax revenue fiscal expansion oil Prices property Prices 关注公众号 budgets spending government china 思维纪要 minister positions chief policy property sector policy support 公众号思维
  3. 日本讨论集中在汇率风险及其对股市的影响，尽管日元走势未引起市场大幅波动，投资者仍对汇率回归基本面持乐观态度。
  4. 对话围绕韩国住房市场政策的未来走向展开，讨论了可能的政策延续性及实施速度的不确定性，特别是提及贸易部长可能接任的关键角色，以及市场可能面临的监管加强和风险控制措施，这些因素将影响住房市场的改革进程。
  5. 油价需升至110-120美元才对区域经济产生显著负面影响，当前通胀温和，中央银行政策调整更多基于需求增长而非供应侧因素。
  6. 发言人1：The main challenges faced by China's household sector include an worsening household balance sheet, an increase in aggressive leveraging, contraction of household debt, slowing consumption, and the impact of property market challenges with falling property prices and a continuing recession.
  7. 发言人1：China's policymakers appear to be taking up fiscal consolidation, following their framework of providing policy support for exports and reducing it when exports recover. This approach has historically worked but is not yielding the same results in the current cycle due to a growth rate below 4.3 percent and negative contributions from exports, investment, and consumption.
  8. 发言人1：The government's approach to property market issues and household debt is considered inadequate because it involves contraction in property market investments and rising household problems due to falling property prices. The property sector's challenges are continuing to impact household wealth negatively, and without aggressive fiscal expansion, household debt could lead to deflation.

预览

【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903.mp3

《海谈科技》量子计算专场——量子科技，会开启新一轮技术变革吗？ 260903.mp3

总结

  1. 【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_导读
  2. terms GDP growth tax revenue fiscal expansion oil Prices property Prices 关注公众号 budgets spending government china 思维纪要 minister positions chief policy property sector policy support 公众号思维
  3. 日本讨论集中在汇率风险及其对股市的影响，尽管日元走势未引起市场大幅波动，投资者仍对汇率回归基本面持乐观态度。
  4. 对话围绕韩国住房市场政策的未来走向展开，讨论了可能的政策延续性及实施速度的不确定性，特别是提及贸易部长可能接任的关键角色，以及市场可能面临的监管加强和风险控制措施，这些因素将影响住房市场的改革进程。
  5. 油价需升至110-120美元才对区域经济产生显著负面影响，当前通胀温和，中央银行政策调整更多基于需求增长而非供应侧因素。
  6. 发言人1：The main challenges faced by China's household sector include an worsening household balance sheet, an increase in aggressive leveraging, contraction of household debt, slowing consumption, and the impact of property market challenges with falling property prices and a continuing recession.
  7. 发言人1：China's policymakers appear to be taking up fiscal consolidation, following their framework of providing policy support for exports and reducing it when exports recover. This approach has historically worked but is not yielding the same results in the current cycle due to a growth rate below 4.3 percent and negative contributions from exports, investment, and consumption.
  8. 发言人1：The government's approach to property market issues and household debt is considered inadequate because it involves contraction in property market investments and rising household problems due to falling property prices. The property sector's challenges are continuing to impact household wealth negatively, and without aggressive fiscal expansion, household debt could lead to deflation.

预览

《海谈科技》量子计算专场——量子科技，会开启新一轮技术变革吗？ 260903.mp3

文档

《海谈科技》量子计算专场——量子科技，会开启新一轮技术变革吗？ 260903_原文.docx

总结

  1. 好，那桐首期从资本配置的角度，您怎么看待这场国际竞争当中我们产业投资方向的影响呢？
  2. 这个其实对产业的帮助肯定是非常明显的那另一个角度来讲，其实是整个资本对于产业关注高的话，其实可以把这块的，就我们看国一，其实它的整个研发人员待遇也逐步在提高了，是包括我们很多半导体产业。
  3. 这几年因为二级市场的火热，其实大家的收入待遇也都慢慢起来了，其实可以更好的去吸引更多优质的人才加入行业，我觉得一是资金吧，二是也给行业能够更好的留住人才提供了很多帮助，可能中长期可以给我们行业发展其实有比较大的一个帮助的，毕竟这个行业确实是人才密集型的行业，对，也需要一些资本的手段来留住这些优秀的人才。
  4. 那么加入AI以后能够加速到什么程度，然后是不是有一些量子的算法可以实现超过多项式，就像所谓的指数加速这一块，然后我们提供一些理论的知识，现在AI技术出来了以后，我们有一些量子资源，我们可以用AI agent来帮助优化，是主要做这方面的。
  5. 所以量子计算公司在一级市场上更多的不应该把关注度是放在融多少钱，而是应该是放在能做多少事情和能为国家解决什么样的一个问题，这是才是我们的重心，只有这样的才能对得起不管是资本市场还是国家给予我们这样的一个厚望和支持。
  6. 所以我们一般作为行业内人来讲的话，一般通过这三步，就是AI for quantum quantum spire的AI quantum for AI，好，那从从首席从投资的视角看，您觉得量子加AI是否会成为产业的一个加速器？
  7. 站在那之前其实可能关注度也很低，只有反映二级市场其实是之后的，对，我们资源配置可能更多需要教授，他们从学界的角度可能看的更准一些，我们更多是奖励这种收入已经有一定规模的企业。
  8. 另外有没有一些关键的一些，比如说现在的稀释制冷机，其实这种关键的一些设备能不能取得一个比较好的一个订单，这个可能是在未来我们希望看到的，这个也是真真实实未来能支撑股价的对现在大家从二级市场角度，现在真的政策是第一位。

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《海谈科技》量子计算专场——量子科技，会开启新一轮技术变革吗？ 260903_原文.docx

【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_导读.docx

总结

  1. 【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_导读
  2. terms GDP growth tax revenue fiscal expansion oil Prices property Prices 关注公众号 budgets spending government china 思维纪要 minister positions chief policy property sector policy support 公众号思维
  3. 日本讨论集中在汇率风险及其对股市的影响，尽管日元走势未引起市场大幅波动，投资者仍对汇率回归基本面持乐观态度。
  4. 对话围绕韩国住房市场政策的未来走向展开，讨论了可能的政策延续性及实施速度的不确定性，特别是提及贸易部长可能接任的关键角色，以及市场可能面临的监管加强和风险控制措施，这些因素将影响住房市场的改革进程。
  5. 油价需升至110-120美元才对区域经济产生显著负面影响，当前通胀温和，中央银行政策调整更多基于需求增长而非供应侧因素。
  6. 发言人1：The main challenges faced by China's household sector include an worsening household balance sheet, an increase in aggressive leveraging, contraction of household debt, slowing consumption, and the impact of property market challenges with falling property prices and a continuing recession.
  7. 发言人1：China's policymakers appear to be taking up fiscal consolidation, following their framework of providing policy support for exports and reducing it when exports recover. This approach has historically worked but is not yielding the same results in the current cycle due to a growth rate below 4.3 percent and negative contributions from exports, investment, and consumption.
  8. 发言人1：The government's approach to property market issues and household debt is considered inadequate because it involves contraction in property market investments and rising household problems due to falling property prices. The property sector's challenges are continuing to impact household wealth negatively, and without aggressive fiscal expansion, household debt could lead to deflation.

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【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_导读.docx

【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_原文.docx

总结

  1. 【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_原文
  2. Good morning, everyone. Today is september thd thursday. Welcome to understand the asian amErica webcast. My name is WG asian EM.
  3. Before we start today, please know that this event is from mogan social clients and financial visor. IT is now for and the of of the press. If i'm on the press, please log and reach supply.
  4. Please also note that this assures courses may be recorded today. We have joined the garnet chief asian emerging market strategies, chicken iah, chief asia economist, capping old to create an have economists. During this session, you can send the questions anytime from the us question tax box for so we have chatter who publish the snow on on the delivering chAllenges in china.
  5. And then without do you may hand over to you chicken. thanks. Yeah hello everyone. Um so the the topic that I wanted to focus today was on china's policymakers effort to be leverage um the housework band sheet and at the same time, they appear to be taking up fiscal consolidation.
  6. So the state of china, the leveraging and at the same time, the implications of that from completion outlook perspective is what I venture cover. Um so what people will observe is that in the last uh two quarters, the household that situation seems to be worsening. IE that they are taking up a more aggressive leveraging.
  7. And so household that outstanding is now contracting. So far, what we have seen in the earlier face is that household death was uh uh, household death was growing at a pace lower than Normal GDP growth. But IT was going. And now with this contraction, this is uh become far more uh painful from growth perspective because as we see in the retail, the consumption has been slowing.
  8. Trading is very clear. Um and there's another question for请关注公众号思维纪要社，更多纪要请加V西安20210130。

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【摩根士丹利】中国家庭去杠杆与财政约束、韩国2027预算及人事变动、日股汇率利率风险、油价冲击及市场行业配置研判 260903_原文.docx

《海谈科技》量子计算专场——量子科技，会开启新一轮技术变革吗？ 260903_导读.docx

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《海谈科技》量子计算专场——量子科技，会开启新一轮技术变革吗？ 260903_导读.docx

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