【招商通信】周观点260810 上周最重要的事件无疑是路透社关于FCC拟禁止进口中国新型光模块的传言。AAOI和MACOM上周的业绩会上都被问到这个问题。 AA
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【招商通信】周观点260810
上周最重要的事件无疑是路透社关于FCC拟禁止进口中国新型光模块的传言。AAOI和MACOM上周的业绩会上都被问到这个问题。
AAOI CFO Stefan Murry表示“It's a little early to say that report that came out a couple of days ago was obviously somewhat speculative in terms of the fact that this ban or whatever it ultimately turns out to be isn't in place yet, and the details aren't really out there.”
AAOI CEO Thompson Lin表示相关逻辑并不新鲜“I think this is really not news at all. I think this kind of discussion for quite a while.”一直以来，AAOI就是因为这个逻辑而被市场关注的，“customers are more aggressive will give us much more share, especially for U.S. manufacturer.”
AAOI努力维持“largest manufacturer domestically”的地位，800G＋1.6T光模块总产能预计将从2026年中的200k支/月，增长到2026年底的650k支/月（占2026年全年总需求近7%），并增长到2027年底的930k支/月（占2027年全年总需求约5%）。AAOI当前产能已全部被预订到2027Q2，就FCC潜在政策而言，CEO坦言“The best we can do is maybe we can more aggressive adding more capacity maybe from Q3 next year”——加大扩产不让份额下降过快就是美国厂商能做的最好的事了…
MACOM CEO Steve Daly在回答问题时从极端角度推演公司不受影响：无论模块在哪组装，芯片都还是它的。同时他强调“the vast majority of what we sell into China for products is exported out of China in systems, which are typically headed to the U.S.”。
受制于一些复杂因素，近期外部噪音有所增多，后续建议重点关注8月11日（周二）Lumentum与8月12日（周三）Coherent业绩会指引；短期维度下，北美光通信产业链的关注度或仍更为突出，部分公司估值修复弹性值得关注！
就FCC潜在政策动向，我们维持260804的核心判断：产业护城河由技术迭代、制造良率与交付稳定性共同构成，单一政策层面的臆测难以对其形成根本性撼动。而且从风险对冲角度看，这一政策疑虑与市场此前担忧的供给端竞争加剧压力，在逻辑上存在一定制衡。坚定看好大光！
风险提示：AI发展不及预期、海内外下游资本开支不及预期、宏观环境扰动、海外地缘政策波动加剧、上游供应链波动风险
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- AAOI CFO Stefan Murry表示“It's a little early to say that report that came out a couple of days ago was obviously somewhat speculative in terms of the fact that this ban or whatever it ultimately turns out to be isn't in place yet, and the details aren't really out there.”
- AAOI CEO Thompson Lin表示相关逻辑并不新鲜“I think this is really not news at all. I think this kind of discussion for quite a while.”一直以来，AAOI就是因为这个逻辑而被市场关注的，“customers are more aggressive will give us much more share, especially for U.S. manufacturer.”
- AAOI努力维持“largest manufacturer domestically”的地位，800G＋1.6T光模块总产能预计将从2026年中的200k支/月，增长到2026年底的650k支/月（占2026年全年总需求近7%），并增长到2027年底的930k支/月（占2027年全年总需求约5%）。
- AAOI当前产能已全部被预订到2027Q2，就FCC潜在政策而言，CEO坦言“The best we can do is maybe we can more aggressive adding more capacity maybe from Q3 next year”——加大扩产不让份额下降过快就是美国厂商能做的最好的事了…
- MACOM CEO Steve Daly在回答问题时从极端角度推演公司不受影响：无论模块在哪组装，芯片都还是它的。
- 同时他强调“the vast majority of what we sell into China for products is exported out of China in systems, which are typically headed to the U.S.”。
- 受制于一些复杂因素，近期外部噪音有所增多，后续建议重点关注8月11日（周二）Lumentum与8月12日（周三）Coherent业绩会指引；
- 就FCC潜在政策动向，我们维持260804的核心判断：产业护城河由技术迭代、制造良率与交付稳定性共同构成，单一政策层面的臆测难以对其形成根本性撼动。