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主题 2026-04-25/topics/115.md 原文

#外资研报

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#外资研报

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  1. #外资研报

附件总结 Citi-华测检测（300012.SZ）：2026 年一季度业绩电话会要点强化我们的看多观点 Centre Testing International Grp (300012.SZ) Key Takeaways of 1Q26 Results Call Reinforces Our More Bullish View.pdf

  1. 1IPFUIiAqWfXdX7N9RbRoMqQmOoQeRrRrNfQnPnM9PnMsPuOtRrPMYmPoM

Citi-深圳英维克（002837.SZ）：2025 年四季度与 2026 年一季度业绩均不及预期，维持卖出评级 Shenzhen Envicool Technology (002837.SZ) Both 4Q25 and 1Q26 Results Missed; Reiterate Sell.pdf

  1. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
  2. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the
  3. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the
  4. history of all Citi Research recommendations published during the preceding 12-month period can be accessed via Citi Velocity
  5. (https://www.citivelocity.com/cv2) or your standard distribution portal. Historical disclosures (for up to the past three years)
  6. the dividend yield for a stock within the next 12 months. The target price is based on a 12 month time horizon. The Investment
  7. stock not assigned a Buy or a Sell is a Neutral (2). For stocks rated Neutral (2), if an analyst believes that there are insufficient
  8. chart. Prior to 11 April 2022 Citi Research assigned “Under Review” status to both situations and prior to 11 Nov 2020 only in

Deutsche Bank-Innovation， Jobs and Inflation： Lessons from 250 Years of Disruption-260423.pdf

  1. AHOEVJp5qW8YfV6MbP9PtRrRnPsMjMpPtPkPtRtQ6MrQsOvPmPsNNZtQtP

GS-ServiceNow (NOW)：2026 年第一季度初步观点 ServiceNow Inc. (NOW)：1Q26 First Take.pdf

  1. companies under our rated coverage from 1 to 3, with 1 representing high (30%-50%) probability of the company becoming an acquisition target, 2
  2. representing medium (15%-30%) probability and 3 representing low (0%-15%) probability. For companies ranked 1 or 2, in line with our standard
  3. departmental guidelines we incorporate an M&A component into our target price. M&A rank of 3 is considered immaterial and therefore does not
  4. Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: ServiceNow Inc. ($100.14)
  5. Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: ServiceNow Inc. ($100.14)
  6. Goldman Sachs has received compensation for non-investment banking services during the past 12 months: ServiceNow Inc. ($100.14)
  7. Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: ServiceNow Inc. ($100.14)
  8. Goldman Sachs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: ServiceNow Inc. ($100.14)

GS-德州仪器 (TXN)：强劲业绩与指引表明模拟芯片复苏仍在持续 Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)：Strong results and guidance suggests that the analog recovery is continuing.pdf

  1. companies under our rated coverage from 1 to 3, with 1 representing high (30%-50%) probability of the company becoming an acquisition target, 2
  2. representing medium (15%-30%) probability and 3 representing low (0%-15%) probability. For companies ranked 1 or 2, in line with our standard
  3. departmental guidelines we incorporate an M&A component into our target price. M&A rank of 3 is considered immaterial and therefore does not
  4. Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: Texas Instruments Inc. ($236.31)
  5. Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: Texas Instruments Inc.
  6. Goldman Sachs has received compensation for non-investment banking services during the past 12 months: Texas Instruments Inc. ($236.31)
  7. Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Texas Instruments Inc. ($236.31)
  8. Goldman Sachs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Texas Instruments Inc.

GS-拉姆研究 (LRCX)：前景改善，因蚀刻 沉积业务敞口高于同业而有望跑赢大盘 —— 买入 Lam Research Corp. (LRCX)：Stronger outlook, with outperformance relative to peers driven by outsized etch_deposition exposure - Buy.pdf

  1. companies under our rated coverage from 1 to 3, with 1 representing high (30%-50%) probability of the company becoming an acquisition target, 2
  2. representing medium (15%-30%) probability and 3 representing low (0%-15%) probability. For companies ranked 1 or 2, in line with our standard
  3. departmental guidelines we incorporate an M&A component into our target price. M&A rank of 3 is considered immaterial and therefore does not
  4. Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: Lam Research Corp. ($265.55)
  5. Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: Lam Research Corp.
  6. Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Lam Research Corp. ($265.55)
  7. Goldman Sachs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Lam Research Corp.
  8. Goldman Sachs had a non-securities services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Lam Research Corp. ($265.55)

Bernstein-泡泡玛特年初至今高频数据：20 余项领先指标显示基本面未现拐点 China Consumer Pop Mart：YTD High Frequency Data - 20+ leading indicators point to no fundamental inflection.pdf

  1. Company (USD bn) CCY price (USD bn) (USD bn) (%) 26E 27E 1BF 1BF 20 C 25 A - G 20 R 27 2 1 0 B 2 F 7 / C 20 A 2 G 5 R - 25E 26E 27E 2025 2025 Current
  2. Bandai Namco* 7832 JT Equity 16.0 JPY 3 ,914 8,150 1,183 15% 19.1x 17.7x 17.6x 9.0x 11% 1.7x 16% 11% 11% 17.3% 12.5% 2.0x
  3. ** We modified our analysis methodology from comparing period end to period average, taking 10 , 20 , and 30 /31 of each month for monthly comparison
  4. *** For products lauched less than 1 year, we calculated growth rate by comparing March level and that in the first month the products launched
  5. Overall, we forecast total revenue of RMB 43.0bn in 2026E, +16% YoY growth. This reflects the natural base normalization
  6. driven by summer IP launches (including Labubu 4.0) and holiday spending in Western markets. We believe Q3 will likely be the
  7. Regionally, China is the growth engine in 2026, within overseas, North America gains share as a leading market. The business
  8. China is the primary growth driver in 2026E at RMB 25.0bn (+20%), contributing roughly 58% of total revenue and the largest

BofA-全球存储科技：香港投资者反馈 —— 十大要点与讨论 Global Memory Tech HK investor feedback：ten key takeaways and discussion points.pdf

  1. Exhibit 2: DRAM contract price hit new-record high of US$35-40 in Exhibit 3: April contract price likely up more than 20% even after
  2. Exhibit 8: TSMC stated that 2026 capex should likely towards the high- Exhibit 9: Strong 2026 capex growth (up 40% YoY range) expected for
  3. 12-rpA 12-luJ 12-tcO 22-naJ 22-rpA 22-luJ 22-tcO 32-naJ 32-rpA 32-luJ 32-tcO 42-naJ 42-rpA 42-luJ 42-tcO 52-naJ 52-rpA 52-luJ 52-tcO 62-naJ 62-rpA
  4. 71-beF 71-nuJ 71-tcO 81-beF 81-nuJ 81-tcO 91-beF 91-nuJ 91-tcO 02-beF 02-nuJ 02-tcO 12-beF 12-nuJ 12-tcO 22-beF 22-nuJ 22-tcO 32-beF 32-nuJ 32-tcO 42-beF 42-nuJ 42-tcO 52-beF 52-nuJ 52-tcO 62-beF
  5. 71-beF 71-nuJ 71-tcO 81-beF 81-nuJ 81-tcO 91-beF 91-nuJ 91-tcO 02-beF 02-nuJ 02-tcO 12-beF 12-nuJ 12-tcO 22-beF 22-nuJ 22-tcO 32-beF 32-nuJ 32-tcO 42-beF 42-nuJ 42-tcO 52-beF 52-nuJ 52-tcO 62-beF
  6. 71-tcO 81-beF 81-nuJ 81-tcO 91-beF 91-nuJ 91-tcO 02-beF 02-nuJ 02-tcO 12-beF 12-nuJ 12-tcO 22-beF 22-nuJ 22-tcO 32-beF 32-nuJ 32-tcO 42-beF 42-nuJ 42-tcO 52-beF 52-nuJ 52-tcO 62-beF
  7. 71-tcO 81-raM 81-guA 91-naJ 91-nuJ 91-voN 02-rpA 02-peS 12-beF 12-luJ 12-ceD 22-yaM 22-tcO 32-raM 32-guA 42-naJ 42-nuJ 42-voN 52-rpA 52-peS 62-beF
  8. Exhibit 18: DRAM spot price softened in 2H March after an exceptionally strong rally from Sept-25 to Jan-2026. DRAM price hit the highest levels in the past

BofA-中国半导体供应链：2026 年一季度 IC 供应稳健增长，库存压力仍存；中芯国际或采购光刻机 China Semis Supply Chain Solid IC supply growth in 1Q26, inventory pressure persists; CXMT likely buying litho.pdf

  1. Exhibit 1: China monthly integrated circuit manufacturing volume Exhibit 2: China monthly integrated circuit import volume and YoY
  2. 71-raM 71-peS 81-raM 81-peS 91-raM 91-peS 02-raM 02-peS 12-raM 12-peS 22-raM 22-peS 32-raM 32-peS 42-raM 42-peS 52-raM 52-peS 62-raM
  3. 71-peS 81-raM 81-peS 91-raM 91-peS 02-raM 02-peS 12-raM 12-peS 22-raM 22-peS 32-raM 32-peS 42-raM 42-peS 52-raM 52-peS 62-raM
  4. 61-beF 61-guA 71-beF 71-guA 81-beF 81-guA 91-beF 91-guA 02-beF 02-guA 12-beF 12-guA 22-beF 22-guA 32-beF 32-guA 42-beF 42-guA 52-beF 52-guA 62-beF
  5. Exhibit 4: China logic (ex-MCU) companies’ average inventory turnover Exhibit 5: China MCU companies’ average inventory turnover
  6. Inventory turnover days at 176 days in 4Q25, vs 148 days in 3Q25 Average inventory turnover period was 216 days in 4Q25, vs 242 days in 3Q
  7. Exhibit 6: China analog companies’ average inventory turnover Exhibit 7: China power discrete average inventory turnover
  8. Average DoI 157 days in 4Q25 vs the previous average of c.100 days DoI 107 days in 4Q, in line with the historical average of around 110 days

文档

Citi-华测检测（300012.SZ）：2026 年一季度业绩电话会要点强化我们的看多观点 Centre Testing International Grp (300012.SZ) Key Takeaways of 1Q26 Results Call Reinforces Our More Bullish View.pdf

总结

  1. 1IPFUIiAqWfXdX7N9RbRoMqQmOoQeRrRrNfQnPnM9PnMsPuOtRrPMYmPoM

预览

Citi-华测检测（300012.SZ）：2026 年一季度业绩电话会要点强化我们的看多观点 Centre Testing International Grp (300012.SZ) Key Takeaways of 1Q26 Results Call Reinforces Our More Bullish View.pdf

Citi-深圳英维克（002837.SZ）：2025 年四季度与 2026 年一季度业绩均不及预期，维持卖出评级 Shenzhen Envicool Technology (002837.SZ) Both 4Q25 and 1Q26 Results Missed; Reiterate Sell.pdf

总结

  1. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
  2. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the
  3. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the
  4. history of all Citi Research recommendations published during the preceding 12-month period can be accessed via Citi Velocity
  5. (https://www.citivelocity.com/cv2) or your standard distribution portal. Historical disclosures (for up to the past three years)
  6. the dividend yield for a stock within the next 12 months. The target price is based on a 12 month time horizon. The Investment
  7. stock not assigned a Buy or a Sell is a Neutral (2). For stocks rated Neutral (2), if an analyst believes that there are insufficient
  8. chart. Prior to 11 April 2022 Citi Research assigned “Under Review” status to both situations and prior to 11 Nov 2020 only in

预览

Citi-深圳英维克（002837.SZ）：2025 年四季度与 2026 年一季度业绩均不及预期，维持卖出评级 Shenzhen Envicool Technology (002837.SZ) Both 4Q25 and 1Q26 Results Missed; Reiterate Sell.pdf

Deutsche Bank-Innovation， Jobs and Inflation： Lessons from 250 Years of Disruption-260423.pdf

总结

  1. AHOEVJp5qW8YfV6MbP9PtRrRnPsMjMpPtPkPtRtQ6MrQsOvPmPsNNZtQtP

预览

Deutsche Bank-Innovation， Jobs and Inflation： Lessons from 250 Years of Disruption-260423.pdf

GS-ServiceNow (NOW)：2026 年第一季度初步观点 ServiceNow Inc. (NOW)：1Q26 First Take.pdf

总结

  1. companies under our rated coverage from 1 to 3, with 1 representing high (30%-50%) probability of the company becoming an acquisition target, 2
  2. representing medium (15%-30%) probability and 3 representing low (0%-15%) probability. For companies ranked 1 or 2, in line with our standard
  3. departmental guidelines we incorporate an M&A component into our target price. M&A rank of 3 is considered immaterial and therefore does not
  4. Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: ServiceNow Inc. ($100.14)
  5. Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: ServiceNow Inc. ($100.14)
  6. Goldman Sachs has received compensation for non-investment banking services during the past 12 months: ServiceNow Inc. ($100.14)
  7. Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: ServiceNow Inc. ($100.14)
  8. Goldman Sachs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: ServiceNow Inc. ($100.14)

预览

GS-ServiceNow (NOW)：2026 年第一季度初步观点 ServiceNow Inc. (NOW)：1Q26 First Take.pdf

GS-德州仪器 (TXN)：强劲业绩与指引表明模拟芯片复苏仍在持续 Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)：Strong results and guidance suggests that the analog recovery is continuing.pdf

总结

  1. companies under our rated coverage from 1 to 3, with 1 representing high (30%-50%) probability of the company becoming an acquisition target, 2
  2. representing medium (15%-30%) probability and 3 representing low (0%-15%) probability. For companies ranked 1 or 2, in line with our standard
  3. departmental guidelines we incorporate an M&A component into our target price. M&A rank of 3 is considered immaterial and therefore does not
  4. Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: Texas Instruments Inc. ($236.31)
  5. Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: Texas Instruments Inc.
  6. Goldman Sachs has received compensation for non-investment banking services during the past 12 months: Texas Instruments Inc. ($236.31)
  7. Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Texas Instruments Inc. ($236.31)
  8. Goldman Sachs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Texas Instruments Inc.

预览

GS-德州仪器 (TXN)：强劲业绩与指引表明模拟芯片复苏仍在持续 Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)：Strong results and guidance suggests that the analog recovery is continuing.pdf

GS-拉姆研究 (LRCX)：前景改善，因蚀刻 沉积业务敞口高于同业而有望跑赢大盘 —— 买入 Lam Research Corp. (LRCX)：Stronger outlook, with outperformance relative to peers driven by outsized etch_deposition exposure - Buy.pdf

总结

  1. companies under our rated coverage from 1 to 3, with 1 representing high (30%-50%) probability of the company becoming an acquisition target, 2
  2. representing medium (15%-30%) probability and 3 representing low (0%-15%) probability. For companies ranked 1 or 2, in line with our standard
  3. departmental guidelines we incorporate an M&A component into our target price. M&A rank of 3 is considered immaterial and therefore does not
  4. Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: Lam Research Corp. ($265.55)
  5. Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: Lam Research Corp.
  6. Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Lam Research Corp. ($265.55)
  7. Goldman Sachs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Lam Research Corp.
  8. Goldman Sachs had a non-securities services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Lam Research Corp. ($265.55)

预览

GS-拉姆研究 (LRCX)：前景改善，因蚀刻 沉积业务敞口高于同业而有望跑赢大盘 —— 买入 Lam Research Corp. (LRCX)：Stronger outlook, with outperformance relative to peers driven by outsized etch_deposition exposure - Buy.pdf

Bernstein-泡泡玛特年初至今高频数据：20 余项领先指标显示基本面未现拐点 China Consumer Pop Mart：YTD High Frequency Data - 20+ leading indicators point to no fundamental inflection.pdf

总结

  1. Company (USD bn) CCY price (USD bn) (USD bn) (%) 26E 27E 1BF 1BF 20 C 25 A - G 20 R 27 2 1 0 B 2 F 7 / C 20 A 2 G 5 R - 25E 26E 27E 2025 2025 Current
  2. Bandai Namco* 7832 JT Equity 16.0 JPY 3 ,914 8,150 1,183 15% 19.1x 17.7x 17.6x 9.0x 11% 1.7x 16% 11% 11% 17.3% 12.5% 2.0x
  3. ** We modified our analysis methodology from comparing period end to period average, taking 10 , 20 , and 30 /31 of each month for monthly comparison
  4. *** For products lauched less than 1 year, we calculated growth rate by comparing March level and that in the first month the products launched
  5. Overall, we forecast total revenue of RMB 43.0bn in 2026E, +16% YoY growth. This reflects the natural base normalization
  6. driven by summer IP launches (including Labubu 4.0) and holiday spending in Western markets. We believe Q3 will likely be the
  7. Regionally, China is the growth engine in 2026, within overseas, North America gains share as a leading market. The business
  8. China is the primary growth driver in 2026E at RMB 25.0bn (+20%), contributing roughly 58% of total revenue and the largest

预览

Bernstein-泡泡玛特年初至今高频数据：20 余项领先指标显示基本面未现拐点 China Consumer Pop Mart：YTD High Frequency Data - 20+ leading indicators point to no fundamental inflection.pdf

BofA-全球存储科技：香港投资者反馈 —— 十大要点与讨论 Global Memory Tech HK investor feedback：ten key takeaways and discussion points.pdf

总结

  1. Exhibit 2: DRAM contract price hit new-record high of US$35-40 in Exhibit 3: April contract price likely up more than 20% even after
  2. Exhibit 8: TSMC stated that 2026 capex should likely towards the high- Exhibit 9: Strong 2026 capex growth (up 40% YoY range) expected for
  3. 12-rpA 12-luJ 12-tcO 22-naJ 22-rpA 22-luJ 22-tcO 32-naJ 32-rpA 32-luJ 32-tcO 42-naJ 42-rpA 42-luJ 42-tcO 52-naJ 52-rpA 52-luJ 52-tcO 62-naJ 62-rpA
  4. 71-beF 71-nuJ 71-tcO 81-beF 81-nuJ 81-tcO 91-beF 91-nuJ 91-tcO 02-beF 02-nuJ 02-tcO 12-beF 12-nuJ 12-tcO 22-beF 22-nuJ 22-tcO 32-beF 32-nuJ 32-tcO 42-beF 42-nuJ 42-tcO 52-beF 52-nuJ 52-tcO 62-beF
  5. 71-beF 71-nuJ 71-tcO 81-beF 81-nuJ 81-tcO 91-beF 91-nuJ 91-tcO 02-beF 02-nuJ 02-tcO 12-beF 12-nuJ 12-tcO 22-beF 22-nuJ 22-tcO 32-beF 32-nuJ 32-tcO 42-beF 42-nuJ 42-tcO 52-beF 52-nuJ 52-tcO 62-beF
  6. 71-tcO 81-beF 81-nuJ 81-tcO 91-beF 91-nuJ 91-tcO 02-beF 02-nuJ 02-tcO 12-beF 12-nuJ 12-tcO 22-beF 22-nuJ 22-tcO 32-beF 32-nuJ 32-tcO 42-beF 42-nuJ 42-tcO 52-beF 52-nuJ 52-tcO 62-beF
  7. 71-tcO 81-raM 81-guA 91-naJ 91-nuJ 91-voN 02-rpA 02-peS 12-beF 12-luJ 12-ceD 22-yaM 22-tcO 32-raM 32-guA 42-naJ 42-nuJ 42-voN 52-rpA 52-peS 62-beF
  8. Exhibit 18: DRAM spot price softened in 2H March after an exceptionally strong rally from Sept-25 to Jan-2026. DRAM price hit the highest levels in the past

预览

BofA-全球存储科技：香港投资者反馈 —— 十大要点与讨论 Global Memory Tech HK investor feedback：ten key takeaways and discussion points.pdf

BofA-中国半导体供应链：2026 年一季度 IC 供应稳健增长，库存压力仍存；中芯国际或采购光刻机 China Semis Supply Chain Solid IC supply growth in 1Q26, inventory pressure persists; CXMT likely buying litho.pdf

总结

  1. Exhibit 1: China monthly integrated circuit manufacturing volume Exhibit 2: China monthly integrated circuit import volume and YoY
  2. 71-raM 71-peS 81-raM 81-peS 91-raM 91-peS 02-raM 02-peS 12-raM 12-peS 22-raM 22-peS 32-raM 32-peS 42-raM 42-peS 52-raM 52-peS 62-raM
  3. 71-peS 81-raM 81-peS 91-raM 91-peS 02-raM 02-peS 12-raM 12-peS 22-raM 22-peS 32-raM 32-peS 42-raM 42-peS 52-raM 52-peS 62-raM
  4. 61-beF 61-guA 71-beF 71-guA 81-beF 81-guA 91-beF 91-guA 02-beF 02-guA 12-beF 12-guA 22-beF 22-guA 32-beF 32-guA 42-beF 42-guA 52-beF 52-guA 62-beF
  5. Exhibit 4: China logic (ex-MCU) companies’ average inventory turnover Exhibit 5: China MCU companies’ average inventory turnover
  6. Inventory turnover days at 176 days in 4Q25, vs 148 days in 3Q25 Average inventory turnover period was 216 days in 4Q25, vs 242 days in 3Q
  7. Exhibit 6: China analog companies’ average inventory turnover Exhibit 7: China power discrete average inventory turnover
  8. Average DoI 157 days in 4Q25 vs the previous average of c.100 days DoI 107 days in 4Q, in line with the historical average of around 110 days

预览

BofA-中国半导体供应链：2026 年一季度 IC 供应稳健增长，库存压力仍存；中芯国际或采购光刻机 China Semis Supply Chain Solid IC supply growth in 1Q26, inventory pressure persists; CXMT likely buying litho.pdf

源文件：2026-04-25/topics/115.md
站内副本：2026-04-25/topics/115.md