---
title: "❗️黄仁勋10月15日关于2027年AIDC瓶颈环节的访谈里强调载板属于关键“卡脖子”环节： “Nonetheless, as we continue to i"
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---

# ❗️黄仁勋10月15日关于2027年AIDC瓶颈环节的访谈里强调载板属于关键“卡脖子”环节： “Nonetheless, as we continue to i

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❗️黄仁勋10月15日关于2027年AIDC瓶颈环节的访谈里强调载板属于关键“卡脖子”环节：

“Nonetheless, as we continue to increase supply upstream and downstream, one of the critical areas is substrate. Substrates are getting larger, and there are more chips, so it's working against us in two ways. Every single chip that's being shipped uses more of the material. These organic materials are really hard to make at the precision that we need. As the packages get larger, the thermal coefficients and the way we stack things make it really hard to handle things like warpage and various manufacturing defects. At the scale that we do, we have to be very precise, and we need really great partners. That's supply-constrained. Silicon photonics is supply-constrained. Everything is supply-constrained. I have 18 months to do so. Every single week that goes by, we increase supply, but nonetheless, as we keep increasing supply, the order book keeps going up. It's going to be hard to close that gap for a few years.”

“不过，尽管我们在上下游持续增加供给，仍有一个关键环节：基板（载板）。基板越做越大，芯片越来越多，这从两个方面都对我们不利：每一颗出货的芯片，都要占用更多的基板材料。这些有机材料要达到我们所需的精度非常难，因为封装越大，热系数和我们堆叠的方式，会让翘曲（warpage）和各种制造缺陷的处理变得极其困难。以我们的规模，必须做到非常精确，所以我们需要真正出色的合作伙伴。这些就是供给受限的例子——硅光子也供给受限。一切都供给受限。我们有18个月的时间去做这件事，每过一周供给都会增加一些，但订单簿一边还在往上涨。未来几年，这个缺口都很难填平。”

🌼总结下来，他关于载板的核心观点：
1、载板是上游少数“卡脖子”环节之一。 和硅光子并列为典型，原话是 ''one of the critical areas''。

2、 工艺和产能：
用量维度：基板面积越做越大+单封装芯片数（die）越来越多 → 每颗出货芯片对基板材料的消耗量上升；
工艺维度：高端AI封装用的有机材料（即ABF体系）要做到英伟达需要的精度“非常难”。

3、主要卡脖子是物理层面的：封装尺寸放大后，热膨胀系数失配+堆叠方式 → 翘曲（warpage）和制造缺陷极难控制。
“以我们的规模，必须做到非常精确，所以我们需要真正出色的合作伙伴”—— 给头部高端载板供应商的确定性背书：这个环节壁垒非常高。

4、时间判断：18个月窗口+“未来几年缺口难填平”。“I have 18 months to do so”——有18个月持续做供给解锁；每周供给都在加，但订单同步在涨， 结论是结构性紧张、几年内缓解不了。

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## 总体总结

主题正文
1. ❗️黄仁勋10月15日关于2027年AIDC瓶颈环节的访谈里强调载板属于关键“卡脖子”环节：
2. “Nonetheless, as we continue to increase supply upstream and downstream, one of the critical areas is substrate. Substrates are getting larger, and there are more chips, so it's working against us in two ways. Every single chip that's being shipped uses more of the material. These organic materials are really hard to make at the precision that we need. As the packages get larger, the thermal coefficients and the way we stack things make it really hard to handle things like warpage and various manufacturing defects. At the scale that we do, we have to be very precise, and we need really great partners. That's supply-constrained. Silicon photonics is supply-constrained. Everything is supply-constrained. I have 18 months to do so. Every single week that goes by, we increase supply, but nonetheless, as we keep increasing supply, the order book keeps going up. It's going to be hard to close that gap for a few years.”
3. 这些有机材料要达到我们所需的精度非常难，因为封装越大，热系数和我们堆叠的方式，会让翘曲（warpage）和各种制造缺陷的处理变得极其困难。
4. 我们有18个月的时间去做这件事，每过一周供给都会增加一些，但订单簿一边还在往上涨。
5. 3、主要卡脖子是物理层面的：封装尺寸放大后，热膨胀系数失配+堆叠方式 → 翘曲（warpage）和制造缺陷极难控制。
6. “以我们的规模，必须做到非常精确，所以我们需要真正出色的合作伙伴”—— 给头部高端载板供应商的确定性背书：这个环节壁垒非常高。
7. “I have 18 months to do so”——有18个月持续做供给解锁；
8. 每周供给都在加，但订单同步在涨， 结论是结构性紧张、几年内缓解不了。