---
title: "#外资研报"
topic_id: 22258258458255521
created_at: 2026-09-18T08:42:13.599+0800
source: zsxq
type: topic
cssclasses: zsxq-vault
---

# #外资研报

- 序号：377
- 星球链接：[打开网页](https://wx.zsxq.com/group/15522451881222/topic/22258258458255521)
- 附件：图片 0，音频 0，文档 9
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## 图片

_无图片_

## 正文

详情页仍未获取到全文。原始列表正文可能被截断。

## 总体总结

主题正文
1. 详情页仍未获取到全文。
2. 原始列表正文可能被截断。

附件总结
CITI-AI基础设施峰会：AI安全将需要更多算力-20260916.pdf
1. roughly 10–12 to 4–5 to improve decision-making speed. Lip-Bu does not see current AI cycle as a reason for concern and
2. agentic AI, orchestration layers, and general-purpose compute workloads. 18A is in volume production with 14A approaching
3. We value INTC based on our SOTP valuation, our price target is $130. We apply a SOTP valuation framework to each of Intel’s
4. Customer risk: Intel’s largest PC OEM customers collectively represent roughly 45% Intel’s revenue. As a result, any major
5. Our target price of $800 is based on ~22x our 2027E GAAP EPS of $36.92 and implies ~11x our 2027E EV/EBITDA. We justify
6. Risks to our target price include: 1) Impacts from changes to ATT and IDFA could prove more difficult to overcome and
7. Our price target for NVDA of $315 is based on ~21x P/E on C27E earnings power. Our 21x P/E multiple is in-line with 1 year
8. Downside risks to the attainment of our target price include: 1) competition on gaming could drive the stock lower if Nvidia

Citi-Lumentum（LITE.O）：花旗全球 TMT 会议要点：乐观展望 Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O) Citi Global TMT Conference Takeaways - Positive.pdf
1. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the
2. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the
3. history of all Citi Research recommendations published during the preceding 12-month period can be accessed via Citi Velocity
4. (https://www.citivelocity.com/cv2) or your standard distribution portal. Historical disclosures (for up to the past three years)
5. the dividend yield for a stock within the next 12 months. The target price is based on a 12 month time horizon. The Investment
6. stock not assigned a Buy or a Sell is a Neutral (2). For stocks rated Neutral (2), if an analyst believes that there are insufficient
7. chart. Prior to 11 April 2022 Citi Research assigned “Under Review” status to both situations and prior to 11 Nov 2020 only in
8. call to indicate the analyst expects the share price to rise (fall) in absolute terms over a specified period of 30 or 90 days in

CITI-持续学习将驱动HBM与eSSD需求-AI训练-推理-20260914.pdf
1. 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 62-beF 62-raM 62-rpA 62-yaM 62-nuJ 62-luJ 62-guA
2. Design Partner 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 1Q28E 2Q28E 3Q28E 4Q28E
3. Company AI Chips E D x e t s e i r g n n a P l A ar S t I n C e / r 1Q24 2Q24 2024 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 2025 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 2026 3Q26 4Q26 1Q27 2Q27 2027 3Q27 4Q27 1Q28 2Q28 2028 3Q28 4Q28
4. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
5. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
6. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
7. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
8. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

CITI-费城半导体指数回调：下一步如何-20260915.pdf
1. Our PT of $515, or 19X F28 EPS, is at the low end of recent trading range of 20-40X to reflect intensifying competition.
2. Customer: We estimate it derives ~35-40% of sales from its largest customer, Google. Therefore, any major uptick/downtick
3. SG&A target: Broadcom's long-term SG&A target is <3% of revenue (excluding stock-based compensation), one of the lowest
4. among semi peers. However, if Broadcom is unable to reach its SG&A target, it could result in downside to our estimates and
5. Competition: Any fluctuations in market share between Broadcom and its competitors could result in upside/downside risk to
6. M&A: If Broadcom pursues further acquisitions, it could lead to margin/EPS accretion/dilution and result in upside/downside
7. Our price target for NVDA of $315 is based on ~21x P/E on C27E earnings power. Our 21x P/E multiple is in-line with 1 year
8. Downside risks to the attainment of our target price include: 1) competition on gaming could drive the stock lower if Nvidia

Citi-国巨（2327.TW）：花旗中国台湾半导体巡回路演——更全面的涨价，更广泛的AI标的.pdf
1. We set our target price at NT$1,450, based on 35x average 2027E-28E earnings. We value Yageo based on PE as we believe the
2. company’s earnings performance and industry dynamics would be the key focuses of the market. Our target multiple of 35x is
3. at the higher end of the trading range since 2022. During this period the company has gone through the cycles, successfully
4. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the
5. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the
6. history of all Citi Research recommendations published during the preceding 12-month period can be accessed via Citi Velocity
7. (https://www.citivelocity.com/cv2) or your standard distribution portal. Historical disclosures (for up to the past three years)
8. the dividend yield for a stock within the next 12 months. The target price is based on a 12 month time horizon. The Investment

CITI-花旗TMT会议第三日纪要：先进能源、Veeco、 Celestica、东京电子、...-20260910.pdf
1. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
2. transitions. CY27 is expected to be primarily a design-win year, with meaningful
3. year and could be flattish in dollars in CY27, implying further mix decline as the
4. through the year as incremental capacity comes online, particularly from late 2Q
5. into 3Q. Opex dollars will rise with growth but should decline as a percentage of
6. with the longer-term goal of ~10,000 units pulled forward from the original late-
7. initial revenue contribution potentially beginning from 2H of the current fiscal
8. n $3.5B equity raise is for 2 things: capex and working capital. On track to spend

CITI-拉美零售头条速览：美客多物流扩张、亚马逊配送中心启用、电商增长与税收改革-20260914.pdf
1. Brazil E-Commerce Revenue Grows 5.1% in August as Overall Retail Falls 2% in Real Terms (09/11/2026, E-Commerce Brasil)
2. Brazilian e-commerce revenue increased 5.1% year over year in August, according to the Cielo Expanded Retail Index, while
3. total retail sales declined 2% in real terms. The overall retail decline followed a 1.4% contraction in July and marked the 15th
4. Brazil’s tax reform will change the treatment of tax credits associated with outsourced logistics services. An Ilos survey of 110
5. companies with average revenue of R$22 billion found that 85% use transportation companies, while 8% operate their own
6. fleets and 7% use independent truck drivers. Under the new rules, companies will only be able to claim credits after the
7. logistics provider has effectively paid the tax, and the credit will correspond to the amount actually paid. Ilos said 55% of
8. surveyed companies expect transportation costs to increase under the new framework, while 45% expect a reduction.

CITI-8月统计局数据：新开工降幅扩大-供给驱动市场萎缩-20260915.pdf
1. Real Estate Investment RMB'bn 14,760 12,269 11,091 10,028 8,279 4,301 4,798 6,410 4.4% -16.9% -9.6% -10.6% -17.2% -19.2% -19.9% -22.6%
2. GFA under construction mn sqm 9,754 9,034 8,384 7,332 6,599 5,576 5,608 5,873 5.2% -7.4% -7.2% -12.7% -10.0% -12.7% -12.8% -11.0%
3. Transaction amount - Overall RMB’bn 18,193 12,473 11,662 9,675 8,394 4,272 4,747 7,487 4.8% -31.4% -6.5% -17.1% -12.6% -13.1% -13.0% -10.8%
4. GFA Starts - Residential mn sqm 1,464 876 693 537 430 195 218 308 -10.9% -40.2% -20.9% -23.0% -19.8% -24.6% -25.4% -28.5%
5. GFA Completed - Residential mn sqm 730 618 724 537 428 134 148 321 10.8% -15.4% 17.2% -27.4% -20.2% -25.5% -25.4% -25.0%
6. GFA under construction - resi mn sqm 6,903 6,395 5,903 5,133 4,601 3,871 3,893 4,081 5.3% -7.3% -7.7% -13.1% -10.3% -13.0% -13.2% -11.3%
7. Transaction amount - Resi RMB’bn 16,273 10,956 10,299 8,486 7,334 3,754 4,178 6,623 5.3% -32.7% -6.0% -17.6% -13.0% -13.2% -13.1% -9.7%
8. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission

## 文档

### CITI-AI基础设施峰会：AI安全将需要更多算力-20260916.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CITI-AI基础设施峰会：AI安全将需要更多算力-20260916.pdf|CITI-AI基础设施峰会：AI安全将需要更多算力-20260916.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. roughly 10–12 to 4–5 to improve decision-making speed. Lip-Bu does not see current AI cycle as a reason for concern and
2. agentic AI, orchestration layers, and general-purpose compute workloads. 18A is in volume production with 14A approaching
3. We value INTC based on our SOTP valuation, our price target is $130. We apply a SOTP valuation framework to each of Intel’s
4. Customer risk: Intel’s largest PC OEM customers collectively represent roughly 45% Intel’s revenue. As a result, any major
5. Our target price of $800 is based on ~22x our 2027E GAAP EPS of $36.92 and implies ~11x our 2027E EV/EBITDA. We justify
6. Risks to our target price include: 1) Impacts from changes to ATT and IDFA could prove more difficult to overcome and
7. Our price target for NVDA of $315 is based on ~21x P/E on C27E earnings power. Our 21x P/E multiple is in-line with 1 year
8. Downside risks to the attainment of our target price include: 1) competition on gaming could drive the stock lower if Nvidia

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CITI-AI基础设施峰会：AI安全将需要更多算力-20260916.pdf|CITI-AI基础设施峰会：AI安全将需要更多算力-20260916.pdf]]

### Citi-Lumentum（LITE.O）：花旗全球 TMT 会议要点：乐观展望 Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O) Citi Global TMT Conference Takeaways - Positive.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Citi-Lumentum（LITE.O）：花旗全球 TMT 会议要点：乐观展望 Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O) Citi Global TMT Conference Takeaways - Positive.pdf|Citi-Lumentum（LITE.O）：花旗全球 TMT 会议要点：乐观展望 Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O) Citi Global TMT Conference Takeaways - Positive.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the
2. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the
3. history of all Citi Research recommendations published during the preceding 12-month period can be accessed via Citi Velocity
4. (https://www.citivelocity.com/cv2) or your standard distribution portal. Historical disclosures (for up to the past three years)
5. the dividend yield for a stock within the next 12 months. The target price is based on a 12 month time horizon. The Investment
6. stock not assigned a Buy or a Sell is a Neutral (2). For stocks rated Neutral (2), if an analyst believes that there are insufficient
7. chart. Prior to 11 April 2022 Citi Research assigned “Under Review” status to both situations and prior to 11 Nov 2020 only in
8. call to indicate the analyst expects the share price to rise (fall) in absolute terms over a specified period of 30 or 90 days in

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Citi-Lumentum（LITE.O）：花旗全球 TMT 会议要点：乐观展望 Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O) Citi Global TMT Conference Takeaways - Positive.pdf|Citi-Lumentum（LITE.O）：花旗全球 TMT 会议要点：乐观展望 Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O) Citi Global TMT Conference Takeaways - Positive.pdf]]

### Citi-TMT Conference 2026.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Citi-TMT Conference 2026.pdf|Citi-TMT Conference 2026.pdf]]

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Citi-TMT Conference 2026.pdf|Citi-TMT Conference 2026.pdf]]

### CITI-持续学习将驱动HBM与eSSD需求-AI训练-推理-20260914.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CITI-持续学习将驱动HBM与eSSD需求-AI训练-推理-20260914.pdf|CITI-持续学习将驱动HBM与eSSD需求-AI训练-推理-20260914.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 62-beF 62-raM 62-rpA 62-yaM 62-nuJ 62-luJ 62-guA
2. Design Partner 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 1Q28E 2Q28E 3Q28E 4Q28E
3. Company AI Chips E D x e t s e i r g n n a P l A ar S t I n C e / r 1Q24 2Q24 2024 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 2025 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 2026 3Q26 4Q26 1Q27 2Q27 2027 3Q27 4Q27 1Q28 2Q28 2028 3Q28 4Q28
4. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
5. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
6. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
7. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
8. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CITI-持续学习将驱动HBM与eSSD需求-AI训练-推理-20260914.pdf|CITI-持续学习将驱动HBM与eSSD需求-AI训练-推理-20260914.pdf]]

### CITI-费城半导体指数回调：下一步如何-20260915.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CITI-费城半导体指数回调：下一步如何-20260915.pdf|CITI-费城半导体指数回调：下一步如何-20260915.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Our PT of $515, or 19X F28 EPS, is at the low end of recent trading range of 20-40X to reflect intensifying competition.
2. Customer: We estimate it derives ~35-40% of sales from its largest customer, Google. Therefore, any major uptick/downtick
3. SG&A target: Broadcom's long-term SG&A target is <3% of revenue (excluding stock-based compensation), one of the lowest
4. among semi peers. However, if Broadcom is unable to reach its SG&A target, it could result in downside to our estimates and
5. Competition: Any fluctuations in market share between Broadcom and its competitors could result in upside/downside risk to
6. M&A: If Broadcom pursues further acquisitions, it could lead to margin/EPS accretion/dilution and result in upside/downside
7. Our price target for NVDA of $315 is based on ~21x P/E on C27E earnings power. Our 21x P/E multiple is in-line with 1 year
8. Downside risks to the attainment of our target price include: 1) competition on gaming could drive the stock lower if Nvidia

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CITI-费城半导体指数回调：下一步如何-20260915.pdf|CITI-费城半导体指数回调：下一步如何-20260915.pdf]]

### Citi-国巨（2327.TW）：花旗中国台湾半导体巡回路演——更全面的涨价，更广泛的AI标的.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Citi-国巨（2327.TW）：花旗中国台湾半导体巡回路演——更全面的涨价，更广泛的AI标的.pdf|Citi-国巨（2327.TW）：花旗中国台湾半导体巡回路演——更全面的涨价，更广泛的AI标的.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. We set our target price at NT$1,450, based on 35x average 2027E-28E earnings. We value Yageo based on PE as we believe the
2. company’s earnings performance and industry dynamics would be the key focuses of the market. Our target multiple of 35x is
3. at the higher end of the trading range since 2022. During this period the company has gone through the cycles, successfully
4. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the
5. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the
6. history of all Citi Research recommendations published during the preceding 12-month period can be accessed via Citi Velocity
7. (https://www.citivelocity.com/cv2) or your standard distribution portal. Historical disclosures (for up to the past three years)
8. the dividend yield for a stock within the next 12 months. The target price is based on a 12 month time horizon. The Investment

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Citi-国巨（2327.TW）：花旗中国台湾半导体巡回路演——更全面的涨价，更广泛的AI标的.pdf|Citi-国巨（2327.TW）：花旗中国台湾半导体巡回路演——更全面的涨价，更广泛的AI标的.pdf]]

### CITI-花旗TMT会议第三日纪要：先进能源、Veeco、 Celestica、东京电子、...-20260910.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CITI-花旗TMT会议第三日纪要：先进能源、Veeco、 Celestica、东京电子、...-20260910.pdf|CITI-花旗TMT会议第三日纪要：先进能源、Veeco、 Celestica、东京电子、...-20260910.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
2. transitions. CY27 is expected to be primarily a design-win year, with meaningful
3. year and could be flattish in dollars in CY27, implying further mix decline as the
4. through the year as incremental capacity comes online, particularly from late 2Q
5. into 3Q. Opex dollars will rise with growth but should decline as a percentage of
6. with the longer-term goal of ~10,000 units pulled forward from the original late-
7. initial revenue contribution potentially beginning from 2H of the current fiscal
8. n $3.5B equity raise is for 2 things: capex and working capital. On track to spend

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CITI-花旗TMT会议第三日纪要：先进能源、Veeco、 Celestica、东京电子、...-20260910.pdf|CITI-花旗TMT会议第三日纪要：先进能源、Veeco、 Celestica、东京电子、...-20260910.pdf]]

### CITI-拉美零售头条速览：美客多物流扩张、亚马逊配送中心启用、电商增长与税收改革-20260914.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CITI-拉美零售头条速览：美客多物流扩张、亚马逊配送中心启用、电商增长与税收改革-20260914.pdf|CITI-拉美零售头条速览：美客多物流扩张、亚马逊配送中心启用、电商增长与税收改革-20260914.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Brazil E-Commerce Revenue Grows 5.1% in August as Overall Retail Falls 2% in Real Terms (09/11/2026, E-Commerce Brasil)
2. Brazilian e-commerce revenue increased 5.1% year over year in August, according to the Cielo Expanded Retail Index, while
3. total retail sales declined 2% in real terms. The overall retail decline followed a 1.4% contraction in July and marked the 15th
4. Brazil’s tax reform will change the treatment of tax credits associated with outsourced logistics services. An Ilos survey of 110
5. companies with average revenue of R$22 billion found that 85% use transportation companies, while 8% operate their own
6. fleets and 7% use independent truck drivers. Under the new rules, companies will only be able to claim credits after the
7. logistics provider has effectively paid the tax, and the credit will correspond to the amount actually paid. Ilos said 55% of
8. surveyed companies expect transportation costs to increase under the new framework, while 45% expect a reduction.

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CITI-拉美零售头条速览：美客多物流扩张、亚马逊配送中心启用、电商增长与税收改革-20260914.pdf|CITI-拉美零售头条速览：美客多物流扩张、亚马逊配送中心启用、电商增长与税收改革-20260914.pdf]]

### CITI-8月统计局数据：新开工降幅扩大-供给驱动市场萎缩-20260915.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CITI-8月统计局数据：新开工降幅扩大-供给驱动市场萎缩-20260915.pdf|CITI-8月统计局数据：新开工降幅扩大-供给驱动市场萎缩-20260915.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Real Estate Investment RMB'bn 14,760 12,269 11,091 10,028 8,279 4,301 4,798 6,410 4.4% -16.9% -9.6% -10.6% -17.2% -19.2% -19.9% -22.6%
2. GFA under construction mn sqm 9,754 9,034 8,384 7,332 6,599 5,576 5,608 5,873 5.2% -7.4% -7.2% -12.7% -10.0% -12.7% -12.8% -11.0%
3. Transaction amount - Overall RMB’bn 18,193 12,473 11,662 9,675 8,394 4,272 4,747 7,487 4.8% -31.4% -6.5% -17.1% -12.6% -13.1% -13.0% -10.8%
4. GFA Starts - Residential mn sqm 1,464 876 693 537 430 195 218 308 -10.9% -40.2% -20.9% -23.0% -19.8% -24.6% -25.4% -28.5%
5. GFA Completed - Residential mn sqm 730 618 724 537 428 134 148 321 10.8% -15.4% 17.2% -27.4% -20.2% -25.5% -25.4% -25.0%
6. GFA under construction - resi mn sqm 6,903 6,395 5,903 5,133 4,601 3,871 3,893 4,081 5.3% -7.3% -7.7% -13.1% -10.3% -13.0% -13.2% -11.3%
7. Transaction amount - Resi RMB’bn 16,273 10,956 10,299 8,486 7,334 3,754 4,178 6,623 5.3% -32.7% -6.0% -17.6% -13.0% -13.2% -13.1% -9.7%
8. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission

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[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CITI-8月统计局数据：新开工降幅扩大-供给驱动市场萎缩-20260915.pdf|CITI-8月统计局数据：新开工降幅扩大-供给驱动市场萎缩-20260915.pdf]]