---
title: "#外资研报"
topic_id: 82258258458258542
created_at: 2026-09-18T08:42:20.904+0800
source: zsxq
type: topic
cssclasses: zsxq-vault
---

# #外资研报

- 序号：376
- 星球链接：[打开网页](https://wx.zsxq.com/group/15522451881222/topic/82258258458258542)
- 附件：图片 0，音频 0，文档 9
- 音频文件：_无音频_

## 图片

_无图片_

## 正文

详情页仍未获取到全文。原始列表正文可能被截断。

## 总体总结

主题正文
1. 详情页仍未获取到全文。
2. 原始列表正文可能被截断。

附件总结
Bernstein-中国半导体：2026 下半年中国半导体产业走访：需求保持韧性，供给趋紧 China Semis Tour 2H26 Demand Holds Up as Supply Tightens.pdf
1. Semicap.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3
2. NAURA (002371.CH)......................................................................................................................................................................................................3
3. AMEC (688012.CH).........................................................................................................................................................................................................4
4. Piotech (688072.CH)......................................................................................................................................................................................................5
5. ACM Research (688082.CH, Not Covered)............................................................................................................................................................6
6. Leadmicro Nano (688147.CH, Not Covered).........................................................................................................................................................7
7. Beijing E-Town Semiconductor (688729.CH, Not Covered).............................................................................................................................7
8. Seichi Tech (688627.CH, Not Covered)...................................................................................................................................................................8

Bernstein-中国半导体巡回路演 2026 年下半年——需求坚挺，供给趋紧.pdf
1. Semicap.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3
2. NAURA (002371.CH)......................................................................................................................................................................................................3
3. AMEC (688012.CH).........................................................................................................................................................................................................4
4. Piotech (688072.CH)......................................................................................................................................................................................................5
5. ACM Research (688082.CH, Not Covered)............................................................................................................................................................6
6. Leadmicro Nano (688147.CH, Not Covered).........................................................................................................................................................7
7. Beijing E-Town Semiconductor (688729.CH, Not Covered).............................................................................................................................7
8. Seichi Tech (688627.CH, Not Covered)...................................................................................................................................................................8

BofA-The Flow Show_Those yields might not hurt yet, but diesel-20260911.pdf
1. Chart 3: “Peak yield” trades working ahead of central bank hikes… Chart 4: …but rally in duration assets like biotech outpacing flows
2. S&P Small Cap 600 index vs cumulative flows to US small cap ($bn, RHS) Biotech ETF (XBI) vs cumulative flows to biotech funds ($bn, RHS)
3. S&P Small Cap 600 US small cap fund flows $bn (cumulative, RHS) Biotech stocks (XBI) Biotech* flows $bn (cumulative, RHS)
4. Chart 7: US CPI inflation trending to 2.4%-2.8% by midterms Chart 8: Bond & stock returns are positively correlated again in ‘26
5. US headline CPI YoY projection assuming pace of MoM prints Average 10Y UST yield vs average correlation (60-day) between 10Y UST yield
6. Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg. *2026 = latest 10Y UST yield & 60-day
7. Chart 11: Materials sector funds have seen 10 weeks of inflows Chart 12: Past 6 weeks strong $6.8bn inflow to crypto funds
8. By sector: inflows tech ($2.2bn), materials ($1.3bn), financials ($1.2bn), real estate ($0.3bn), com svs ($35mn), outflows

BofA-美国经济周报——解决利率问题时间紧迫，一个复合难题.pdf
1. 4FRHXHjBsY9ZfV9PaO9PtRmMoMoQfQqQwPjMnNrM7NmNtNNZnOmMNZqMnP

China's Go Global - 4pm today.pdf
1. Please join us at 430pm HK on Wednesday 16th September for a webinar on ‘China's great Go Global expansion:
2. With a sharp rise to an 18% share for Chinese players in ex-China markets, competition is now moving from
3. encompassing 11 sectors and 40 companies, to ask what the learnings from past global expansions are, and how
4. Chinese companies' market shares to rise further to 31% by 2035E, with revenue growth of 3.6x, favoring the
5. Goldman Sachs agrees to host these calls/webcasts on the basis that no third party speaker will provide confidential or material, non-public
6. information. These calls/webcasts are strictly for clients of Goldman Sachs. They are not intended for media and are off the record. In addition,
7. by attending these calls/webcasts, you provide Goldman Sachs the right to record and re-distribute the call/webcast information. The views of
8. Union implementing the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2014/65/EU (MiFID II) please ensure that your organisation has entered into

CICC.pdf
1. Did you know CICC historically only breached the 15% ROE mark during wild bull markets like
2. 15% ROE would require shifting over 40% of capital to the high-yielding Hong Kong business, a
3. 15.8% payout ratio, significantly lagging peers like CITICS (34.5%). GIR estimates that even at a
4. 12% ROE, CICC has ample room to double its payout ratio while still compounding book value at
5. Trading at a distressed 0.5x forward P/B despite limited credit and market risk, CICC-H
6. (3908.HK) offers a compelling asymmetric setup. We reiterate our Buy rating with a HK$38.20
7. target price, implying a massive 92% upside. Keep a close eye on the upcoming management
8. meeting on September 17, which should provide further clarity on the M&A timeline and capital

Bernstein-全球软件及欧洲科技软件行业：全球软件——下一轮ERP超级周期：争夺企业执行控制权的竞赛.pdf
1. Investment summary...............................................................................................................................................................................................................5
2. Why ERP is at an inflection point.......................................................................................................................................................................................6
3. ERP’s historical role: From system of record to enterprise backbone..........................................................................................................6
4. ERP 4.0: The emergence of Enterprise Resource Execution...........................................................................................................................8
5. The real shift: From transaction digitization to coordination digitization...................................................................................................10
6. Why the inflection is happening now......................................................................................................................................................................11
7. Bull and bear arguments.............................................................................................................................................................................................12
8. Investment implications...............................................................................................................................................................................................13

Bernstein-日本及欧盟半导体：日本、欧盟、半导体——中国台湾地区进口追踪（2026年8月）：半导体工艺设备（SPE）进口同比增长10%.pdf
1. 61-naJ 61-yaM 61-peS 71-naJ 71-yaM 71-peS 81-naJ 81-yaM 81-peS 91-naJ 91-yaM 91-peS 02-naJ 02-yaM 02-peS 12-naJ 12-yaM 12-peS 22-naJ 22-yaM 22-peS 32-naJ 32-yaM 32-peS 42-naJ 42-yaM 42-peS 52-naJ 52-yaM 52-peS 62-naJ 62-yaM
2. 61-naJ 61-yaM 61-peS 71-naJ 71-yaM 71-peS 81-naJ 81-yaM 81-peS 91-naJ 91-yaM 91-peS 02-naJ 02-yaM 02-peS 12-naJ 12-yaM 12-peS 22-naJ 22-yaM 22-peS 32-naJ 32-yaM 32-peS 42-naJ 42-yaM 42-peS 52-naJ 52-yaM 52-peS 62-naJ 62-yaM
3. • Advantest SoC tester revenue is highly correlated to the Taiwan tester import (Exhibit 4). TW import of testers in August from
4. • Our regression indicates a SepQ Taiwan sales for Advantest of -4% QoQ (Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6), with downside vs. consensus
5. 61-naJ 61-yaM 61-peS 71-naJ 71-yaM 71-peS 81-naJ 81-yaM 81-peS 91-naJ 91-yaM 91-peS 02-naJ 02-yaM 02-peS 12-naJ 12-yaM 12-peS 22-naJ 22-yaM 22-peS 32-naJ 32-yaM 32-peS 42-naJ 42-yaM 42-peS 52-naJ 52-yaM 52-peS 62-naJ 62-yaM
6. 61-naJ 61-rpA 61-luJ 61-tcO 71-naJ 71-rpA 71-luJ 71-tcO 81-naJ 81-rpA 81-luJ 81-tcO 91-naJ 91-rpA 91-luJ 91-tcO 02-naJ 02-rpA 02-luJ 02-tcO 12-naJ 12-rpA 12-luJ 12-tcO 22-naJ 22-rpA 22-luJ 22-tcO 32-naJ 32-rpA 32-luJ 32-tcO 42-naJ 42-rpA 42-luJ 42-tcO 52-naJ 52-rpA 52-luJ 52-tcO 62-naJ 62-rpA 62-luJ
7. • TW litho imports were relatively strong in July at €525mn, down 5% MoM but up 9% YoY (vs August 2025). On a sequential
8. basis, the first two months of the quarter were up 35% QoQ. As highlighted in previous reports, monthly import data tend to

Bernstein-日本及欧盟半导体：日本半导体——小盘股大思维：芝浦机械（Shibaura Mechatronics）——键合未来.pdf
1. Shibaura Mechatronics (6590.JP, not covered) is a semiconductor equipment maker with exposure to both advanced packaging
2. TFC-6500-W, the high-throughput variant, as well as the TFC-6600 series (Exhibit 3). These are mass-reflow (MR) flip chip
3. some auxiliary use for CoW process. Also, hybrid bonder is being developed for mass production in 2028. In aggregate, flip chip
4. FY26, the biggest contribution was from phosphoric acid etching with ¥14.9bn, followed by single-wafer cleaning equipment
5. for silicon wafer manufacturing (¥9.2bn), and photomask cleaning equipment for photomask manufacturing (¥3.5bn). These 3
6. toward CoPoS, 2. Potential entry into the hybrid bonding market, and 3. Longer-term recovery of selected front-end wafer
7. Currently, we believe Shibaura is the sole supplier for the flip chip CoW process in TSMC’s CoWoS package with the TFC-6500
8. series which migrated to TFC-6500-W with higher throughput. So far, the main customer has been TSMC but Shibaura obtained

## 文档

### Bernstein-中国半导体：2026 下半年中国半导体产业走访：需求保持韧性，供给趋紧 China Semis Tour 2H26 Demand Holds Up as Supply Tightens.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-中国半导体：2026 下半年中国半导体产业走访：需求保持韧性，供给趋紧 China Semis Tour 2H26 Demand Holds Up as Supply Tightens.pdf|Bernstein-中国半导体：2026 下半年中国半导体产业走访：需求保持韧性，供给趋紧 China Semis Tour 2H26 Demand Holds Up as Supply Tightens.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Semicap.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3
2. NAURA (002371.CH)......................................................................................................................................................................................................3
3. AMEC (688012.CH).........................................................................................................................................................................................................4
4. Piotech (688072.CH)......................................................................................................................................................................................................5
5. ACM Research (688082.CH, Not Covered)............................................................................................................................................................6
6. Leadmicro Nano (688147.CH, Not Covered).........................................................................................................................................................7
7. Beijing E-Town Semiconductor (688729.CH, Not Covered).............................................................................................................................7
8. Seichi Tech (688627.CH, Not Covered)...................................................................................................................................................................8

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-中国半导体：2026 下半年中国半导体产业走访：需求保持韧性，供给趋紧 China Semis Tour 2H26 Demand Holds Up as Supply Tightens.pdf|Bernstein-中国半导体：2026 下半年中国半导体产业走访：需求保持韧性，供给趋紧 China Semis Tour 2H26 Demand Holds Up as Supply Tightens.pdf]]

### Bernstein-中国半导体巡回路演 2026 年下半年——需求坚挺，供给趋紧.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-中国半导体巡回路演 2026 年下半年——需求坚挺，供给趋紧.pdf|Bernstein-中国半导体巡回路演 2026 年下半年——需求坚挺，供给趋紧.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Semicap.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3
2. NAURA (002371.CH)......................................................................................................................................................................................................3
3. AMEC (688012.CH).........................................................................................................................................................................................................4
4. Piotech (688072.CH)......................................................................................................................................................................................................5
5. ACM Research (688082.CH, Not Covered)............................................................................................................................................................6
6. Leadmicro Nano (688147.CH, Not Covered).........................................................................................................................................................7
7. Beijing E-Town Semiconductor (688729.CH, Not Covered).............................................................................................................................7
8. Seichi Tech (688627.CH, Not Covered)...................................................................................................................................................................8

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-中国半导体巡回路演 2026 年下半年——需求坚挺，供给趋紧.pdf|Bernstein-中国半导体巡回路演 2026 年下半年——需求坚挺，供给趋紧.pdf]]

### BofA-The Flow Show_Those yields might not hurt yet, but diesel-20260911.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__BofA-The Flow Show_Those yields might not hurt yet, but diesel-20260911.pdf|BofA-The Flow Show_Those yields might not hurt yet, but diesel-20260911.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Chart 3: “Peak yield” trades working ahead of central bank hikes… Chart 4: …but rally in duration assets like biotech outpacing flows
2. S&P Small Cap 600 index vs cumulative flows to US small cap ($bn, RHS) Biotech ETF (XBI) vs cumulative flows to biotech funds ($bn, RHS)
3. S&P Small Cap 600 US small cap fund flows $bn (cumulative, RHS) Biotech stocks (XBI) Biotech* flows $bn (cumulative, RHS)
4. Chart 7: US CPI inflation trending to 2.4%-2.8% by midterms Chart 8: Bond & stock returns are positively correlated again in ‘26
5. US headline CPI YoY projection assuming pace of MoM prints Average 10Y UST yield vs average correlation (60-day) between 10Y UST yield
6. Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg. *2026 = latest 10Y UST yield & 60-day
7. Chart 11: Materials sector funds have seen 10 weeks of inflows Chart 12: Past 6 weeks strong $6.8bn inflow to crypto funds
8. By sector: inflows tech ($2.2bn), materials ($1.3bn), financials ($1.2bn), real estate ($0.3bn), com svs ($35mn), outflows

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__BofA-The Flow Show_Those yields might not hurt yet, but diesel-20260911.pdf|BofA-The Flow Show_Those yields might not hurt yet, but diesel-20260911.pdf]]

### BofA-美国经济周报——解决利率问题时间紧迫，一个复合难题.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__BofA-美国经济周报——解决利率问题时间紧迫，一个复合难题.pdf|BofA-美国经济周报——解决利率问题时间紧迫，一个复合难题.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. 4FRHXHjBsY9ZfV9PaO9PtRmMoMoQfQqQwPjMnNrM7NmNtNNZnOmMNZqMnP

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__BofA-美国经济周报——解决利率问题时间紧迫，一个复合难题.pdf|BofA-美国经济周报——解决利率问题时间紧迫，一个复合难题.pdf]]

### China's Go Global - 4pm today.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__China's Go Global - 4pm today.pdf|China's Go Global - 4pm today.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Please join us at 430pm HK on Wednesday 16th September for a webinar on ‘China's great Go Global expansion:
2. With a sharp rise to an 18% share for Chinese players in ex-China markets, competition is now moving from
3. encompassing 11 sectors and 40 companies, to ask what the learnings from past global expansions are, and how
4. Chinese companies' market shares to rise further to 31% by 2035E, with revenue growth of 3.6x, favoring the
5. Goldman Sachs agrees to host these calls/webcasts on the basis that no third party speaker will provide confidential or material, non-public
6. information. These calls/webcasts are strictly for clients of Goldman Sachs. They are not intended for media and are off the record. In addition,
7. by attending these calls/webcasts, you provide Goldman Sachs the right to record and re-distribute the call/webcast information. The views of
8. Union implementing the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2014/65/EU (MiFID II) please ensure that your organisation has entered into

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__China's Go Global - 4pm today.pdf|China's Go Global - 4pm today.pdf]]

### CICC.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CICC.pdf|CICC.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Did you know CICC historically only breached the 15% ROE mark during wild bull markets like
2. 15% ROE would require shifting over 40% of capital to the high-yielding Hong Kong business, a
3. 15.8% payout ratio, significantly lagging peers like CITICS (34.5%). GIR estimates that even at a
4. 12% ROE, CICC has ample room to double its payout ratio while still compounding book value at
5. Trading at a distressed 0.5x forward P/B despite limited credit and market risk, CICC-H
6. (3908.HK) offers a compelling asymmetric setup. We reiterate our Buy rating with a HK$38.20
7. target price, implying a massive 92% upside. Keep a close eye on the upcoming management
8. meeting on September 17, which should provide further clarity on the M&A timeline and capital

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__CICC.pdf|CICC.pdf]]

### Bernstein-全球软件及欧洲科技软件行业：全球软件——下一轮ERP超级周期：争夺企业执行控制权的竞赛.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-全球软件及欧洲科技软件行业：全球软件——下一轮ERP超级周期：争夺企业执行控制权的竞赛.pdf|Bernstein-全球软件及欧洲科技软件行业：全球软件——下一轮ERP超级周期：争夺企业执行控制权的竞赛.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Investment summary...............................................................................................................................................................................................................5
2. Why ERP is at an inflection point.......................................................................................................................................................................................6
3. ERP’s historical role: From system of record to enterprise backbone..........................................................................................................6
4. ERP 4.0: The emergence of Enterprise Resource Execution...........................................................................................................................8
5. The real shift: From transaction digitization to coordination digitization...................................................................................................10
6. Why the inflection is happening now......................................................................................................................................................................11
7. Bull and bear arguments.............................................................................................................................................................................................12
8. Investment implications...............................................................................................................................................................................................13

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-全球软件及欧洲科技软件行业：全球软件——下一轮ERP超级周期：争夺企业执行控制权的竞赛.pdf|Bernstein-全球软件及欧洲科技软件行业：全球软件——下一轮ERP超级周期：争夺企业执行控制权的竞赛.pdf]]

### Bernstein-日本及欧盟半导体：日本、欧盟、半导体——中国台湾地区进口追踪（2026年8月）：半导体工艺设备（SPE）进口同比增长10%.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-日本及欧盟半导体：日本、欧盟、半导体——中国台湾地区进口追踪（2026年8月）：半导体工艺设备（SPE）进口同比增长10%.pdf|Bernstein-日本及欧盟半导体：日本、欧盟、半导体——中国台湾地区进口追踪（2026年8月）：半导体工艺设备（SPE）进口同比增长10%.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. 61-naJ 61-yaM 61-peS 71-naJ 71-yaM 71-peS 81-naJ 81-yaM 81-peS 91-naJ 91-yaM 91-peS 02-naJ 02-yaM 02-peS 12-naJ 12-yaM 12-peS 22-naJ 22-yaM 22-peS 32-naJ 32-yaM 32-peS 42-naJ 42-yaM 42-peS 52-naJ 52-yaM 52-peS 62-naJ 62-yaM
2. 61-naJ 61-yaM 61-peS 71-naJ 71-yaM 71-peS 81-naJ 81-yaM 81-peS 91-naJ 91-yaM 91-peS 02-naJ 02-yaM 02-peS 12-naJ 12-yaM 12-peS 22-naJ 22-yaM 22-peS 32-naJ 32-yaM 32-peS 42-naJ 42-yaM 42-peS 52-naJ 52-yaM 52-peS 62-naJ 62-yaM
3. • Advantest SoC tester revenue is highly correlated to the Taiwan tester import (Exhibit 4). TW import of testers in August from
4. • Our regression indicates a SepQ Taiwan sales for Advantest of -4% QoQ (Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6), with downside vs. consensus
5. 61-naJ 61-yaM 61-peS 71-naJ 71-yaM 71-peS 81-naJ 81-yaM 81-peS 91-naJ 91-yaM 91-peS 02-naJ 02-yaM 02-peS 12-naJ 12-yaM 12-peS 22-naJ 22-yaM 22-peS 32-naJ 32-yaM 32-peS 42-naJ 42-yaM 42-peS 52-naJ 52-yaM 52-peS 62-naJ 62-yaM
6. 61-naJ 61-rpA 61-luJ 61-tcO 71-naJ 71-rpA 71-luJ 71-tcO 81-naJ 81-rpA 81-luJ 81-tcO 91-naJ 91-rpA 91-luJ 91-tcO 02-naJ 02-rpA 02-luJ 02-tcO 12-naJ 12-rpA 12-luJ 12-tcO 22-naJ 22-rpA 22-luJ 22-tcO 32-naJ 32-rpA 32-luJ 32-tcO 42-naJ 42-rpA 42-luJ 42-tcO 52-naJ 52-rpA 52-luJ 52-tcO 62-naJ 62-rpA 62-luJ
7. • TW litho imports were relatively strong in July at €525mn, down 5% MoM but up 9% YoY (vs August 2025). On a sequential
8. basis, the first two months of the quarter were up 35% QoQ. As highlighted in previous reports, monthly import data tend to

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-日本及欧盟半导体：日本、欧盟、半导体——中国台湾地区进口追踪（2026年8月）：半导体工艺设备（SPE）进口同比增长10%.pdf|Bernstein-日本及欧盟半导体：日本、欧盟、半导体——中国台湾地区进口追踪（2026年8月）：半导体工艺设备（SPE）进口同比增长10%.pdf]]

### Bernstein-日本及欧盟半导体：日本半导体——小盘股大思维：芝浦机械（Shibaura Mechatronics）——键合未来.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-日本及欧盟半导体：日本半导体——小盘股大思维：芝浦机械（Shibaura Mechatronics）——键合未来.pdf|Bernstein-日本及欧盟半导体：日本半导体——小盘股大思维：芝浦机械（Shibaura Mechatronics）——键合未来.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Shibaura Mechatronics (6590.JP, not covered) is a semiconductor equipment maker with exposure to both advanced packaging
2. TFC-6500-W, the high-throughput variant, as well as the TFC-6600 series (Exhibit 3). These are mass-reflow (MR) flip chip
3. some auxiliary use for CoW process. Also, hybrid bonder is being developed for mass production in 2028. In aggregate, flip chip
4. FY26, the biggest contribution was from phosphoric acid etching with ¥14.9bn, followed by single-wafer cleaning equipment
5. for silicon wafer manufacturing (¥9.2bn), and photomask cleaning equipment for photomask manufacturing (¥3.5bn). These 3
6. toward CoPoS, 2. Potential entry into the hybrid bonding market, and 3. Longer-term recovery of selected front-end wafer
7. Currently, we believe Shibaura is the sole supplier for the flip chip CoW process in TSMC’s CoWoS package with the TFC-6500
8. series which migrated to TFC-6500-W with higher throughput. So far, the main customer has been TSMC but Shibaura obtained

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-日本及欧盟半导体：日本半导体——小盘股大思维：芝浦机械（Shibaura Mechatronics）——键合未来.pdf|Bernstein-日本及欧盟半导体：日本半导体——小盘股大思维：芝浦机械（Shibaura Mechatronics）——键合未来.pdf]]