---
title: "#外资研报"
topic_id: 22258258458258251
created_at: 2026-09-18T08:42:33.603+0800
source: zsxq
type: topic
cssclasses: zsxq-vault
---

# #外资研报

- 序号：374
- 星球链接：[打开网页](https://wx.zsxq.com/group/15522451881222/topic/22258258458258251)
- 附件：图片 0，音频 0，文档 9
- 音频文件：_无音频_

## 图片

_无图片_

## 正文

详情页仍未获取到全文。原始列表正文可能被截断。

## 总体总结

主题正文
1. 详情页仍未获取到全文。
2. 原始列表正文可能被截断。

附件总结
Barclays-全球航空航天：数据追踪与预测指南——二季度数据支撑更广泛的商业航空航天投资逻辑，而非从售后市场轮动撤离.pdf
1. driven by engine aftermarket up +24.1% YoY (Fig 16). While the Q2 growth rate is unlikely to be milene.kerner@barclays.com
2. Aftermarket. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3. Deliveries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
4. Deferrals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
5. FIGURE 1. Reflective of headwinds from the Middle East, global FIGURE 2. Domestic traffic has grown +1.0% YTD while international
6. FIGURE 3. Middle Eastern RPKs declined ~30% YoY in Q2 26 with the FIGURE 4. Middle East represented a 9.5% share of industry RPKs in
7. FIGURE 5. IATA expects total segment passengers to exceed 5bn in FIGURE 6. ...while aircraft departures are expected to see a marginal
8. FIGURE 7. Factoring in the impact from the Middle Eastern conflict, IATA now forecasts RPK growth of +2.1% in 2026 (vs prior forecast of +4.9%

Barclays-全球再保险：蒙特卡洛会议要点——软化之势未见放缓.pdf
1. A poll of investors and market participants during annual Barclays Monte Carlo reinsurance trip. 2023 n=17, 2024 n=16, 2025
2. 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 Q 1 2 Q 2 2 Q 3 2 Q 4 2 Q 1 2 Q 2 2 Q 3 2 Q 4 2 Q 1 2 Q 2 2 Q 3 1 1 0 2 1 0 3 1 0 4 1 0 5 1 0 6 1 0 7 1 0 8 1 0 9 1 0 0 2 0 1 2 0 2 2 0 3 2 0 4 2 Q 4 2 Q 4 2 Q 4 2 Q 5 2 Q 5 2 Q 5 2 Q 5 2 Q 6 2 Q 6 2 Q 6 2 Q
3. We, Ivan Bokhmat and Alex Scott, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about
4. any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or
5. publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY
6. 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.
7. acquisition of a 30% stake in Allianz Hellas from Allianz, and the signing of a long-term bancassurance agreement between NBG and Allianz Hellas.
8. CH: Barclays Bank PLC and/or its group companies makes, or will make, a market in the securities (as defined under paragraph 16.2 (k) of the HK SFC

Barclays-为AI供电：数据中心的政治博弈.pdf
1. Campus Ohio, U.S. Dept. for add'l 3.75 with capacity online expected to be owned by the U.S. reliability without shifting
2. Purchase Energy up to 4.6 GW of intended to be built specifically NextEra will fund and reliability, create approximately
3. We, William Thompson, Hannah Greenberg, Michael McLean and Anika Agarwal, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report
4. accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our
5. publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY
6. 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.
7. Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment
8. Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month

Bernstein-China Semiconductors：China Semis Tour 2H26： Demand Holds Up as Supply Tightens-260908.pdf
1. Semicap.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3
2. NAURA (002371.CH)......................................................................................................................................................................................................3
3. AMEC (688012.CH).........................................................................................................................................................................................................4
4. Piotech (688072.CH)......................................................................................................................................................................................................5
5. ACM Research (688082.CH, Not Covered)............................................................................................................................................................6
6. Leadmicro Nano (688147.CH, Not Covered).........................................................................................................................................................7
7. Beijing E-Town Semiconductor (688729.CH, Not Covered).............................................................................................................................7
8. Seichi Tech (688627.CH, Not Covered)...................................................................................................................................................................8

Bernstein-Qualcomm Inc（QCOM.US）Amazon deal adds confidence to datacenter targets though not upside-260908.pdf
1. (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,
2. C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,
3. We value QCOM by setting a target multiple of ~15x applied to the average of our FY2027/28 diluted EPS estimate (~$11.14)
4. issues monetizing China, "leakage" of IP issues, 5G penetration and ramp slower than we model resulting in lower device or chipset
5. The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 for
6. for European insurers, the S&P 500 and S&P Financials for US banks and Payments coverage, S5LIFE for US Insurance, the S&P
7. Where this report contains investment recommendations for credit instruments, as defined in article 3(1)(35) of the Market Abuse
8. Prior to April 1, 2024, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC. issued the ratings and price target information in the graph(s) below for

Bernstein-阿里巴巴：AI 资本开支、回购及资金需求的自下而上建模 Alibaba Bottom‑up modelling of AI capex payback, funding needs.pdf
1. consistent with a three year payback on capex, while channel feedback on the new M890 Absolute (%) (23.7) (13.3) (16.1) (14.6)
2. quotes for server rental prices have continued to point higher in recent months, and our Relative (%) (36.9) (15.3) (29.8) (34.7)
3. Alibaba’s share price drop following its $10.2bn equity raise has triggered significant investor grumbling. Beyond the generic
4. the fact Alibaba could easily have funded the amount raised from internal resources (e.g. $30.7bn net cash as of June 30).
5. 2024 CB raise. Even believers in the company’s AI growth strategy accepted that the recent sequence of events diluted the
6. generations of T-head silicon. At a high level, we think management’s claims around 2.5-3 year breakeven periods on capex are
7. over $100bn of external cloud revenues by FY3/31 likely requires close to RMB1tn of cumulative capex in the coming years.
8. Compared with reasonable estimates for Alibaba’s e-commerce and cloud profits, a c. RMB170bn funding gap exists which is

Bernstein-戴尔（DELL.US）：管理层网络研讨会要点.pdf
1. Overall demand continues to accelerate. Dell received approximately $61 billion of new AI server orders during the quarter,
2. shipped $16.4 billion, and ended with a $95 billion backlog of orders awaiting fulfillment. Demand also extends well beyond
3. than 60% over the past six months. It added approximately 3,300 customers over the past three quarters, roughly the same
4. margin Dell IP storage should provide additional support. In Q3, Dell expects ISG operating margin to improve by more than 1
5. same mid-single-digit range as Rubin ramps. Rubin shipments in Q3 and Q4 are already included in guidance. Current backlog
6. It targets at least 10% annual dividend growth through FY30 and is increasing the dividend by 20% this year, while recent
7. $6 billion to $7 billion previously, because the company is approximately 70% larger than one year ago. Core leverage remains
8. Capital Expenditure and Capitalized Software De(v2e,6lo5p2m)ent(2,633) (3,960) (3,793) (4,593) (963) (1,239) (879) (879)

Barclays-量子计算：知识覆盖.pdf
1. We, Simon Coles, CFA and Laia Marin i Sola, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views
2. about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or
3. publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY
4. 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.
5. research report during the preceding 12 months. To view all investment recommendations published by Barclays Equity Research in the preceding 12
6. disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242, it is an “institutional debt research
7. debt research reports” as required by US FINRA Rule 2242, they will not receive any such reports that may be co-authored by non-debt research
8. not received any compensation from the subject companies in the past 12 months. If this publication contains recommendations, they are general

Barclays-欧洲必需消费品：上海调研纪要.pdf
1. AHPFZFp5pVeWfVbR9RaQsQpPpNpRfQoOxOeRpPxPbRpOtOxNoOpPxNrNoQ

## 文档

### Barclays-全球航空航天：数据追踪与预测指南——二季度数据支撑更广泛的商业航空航天投资逻辑，而非从售后市场轮动撤离.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Barclays-全球航空航天：数据追踪与预测指南——二季度数据支撑更广泛的商业航空航天投资逻辑，而非从售后市场轮动撤离.pdf|Barclays-全球航空航天：数据追踪与预测指南——二季度数据支撑更广泛的商业航空航天投资逻辑，而非从售后市场轮动撤离.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. driven by engine aftermarket up +24.1% YoY (Fig 16). While the Q2 growth rate is unlikely to be milene.kerner@barclays.com
2. Aftermarket. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3. Deliveries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
4. Deferrals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
5. FIGURE 1. Reflective of headwinds from the Middle East, global FIGURE 2. Domestic traffic has grown +1.0% YTD while international
6. FIGURE 3. Middle Eastern RPKs declined ~30% YoY in Q2 26 with the FIGURE 4. Middle East represented a 9.5% share of industry RPKs in
7. FIGURE 5. IATA expects total segment passengers to exceed 5bn in FIGURE 6. ...while aircraft departures are expected to see a marginal
8. FIGURE 7. Factoring in the impact from the Middle Eastern conflict, IATA now forecasts RPK growth of +2.1% in 2026 (vs prior forecast of +4.9%

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Barclays-全球航空航天：数据追踪与预测指南——二季度数据支撑更广泛的商业航空航天投资逻辑，而非从售后市场轮动撤离.pdf|Barclays-全球航空航天：数据追踪与预测指南——二季度数据支撑更广泛的商业航空航天投资逻辑，而非从售后市场轮动撤离.pdf]]

### Barclays-全球再保险：蒙特卡洛会议要点——软化之势未见放缓.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Barclays-全球再保险：蒙特卡洛会议要点——软化之势未见放缓.pdf|Barclays-全球再保险：蒙特卡洛会议要点——软化之势未见放缓.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. A poll of investors and market participants during annual Barclays Monte Carlo reinsurance trip. 2023 n=17, 2024 n=16, 2025
2. 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 Q 1 2 Q 2 2 Q 3 2 Q 4 2 Q 1 2 Q 2 2 Q 3 2 Q 4 2 Q 1 2 Q 2 2 Q 3 1 1 0 2 1 0 3 1 0 4 1 0 5 1 0 6 1 0 7 1 0 8 1 0 9 1 0 0 2 0 1 2 0 2 2 0 3 2 0 4 2 Q 4 2 Q 4 2 Q 4 2 Q 5 2 Q 5 2 Q 5 2 Q 5 2 Q 6 2 Q 6 2 Q 6 2 Q
3. We, Ivan Bokhmat and Alex Scott, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about
4. any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or
5. publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY
6. 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.
7. acquisition of a 30% stake in Allianz Hellas from Allianz, and the signing of a long-term bancassurance agreement between NBG and Allianz Hellas.
8. CH: Barclays Bank PLC and/or its group companies makes, or will make, a market in the securities (as defined under paragraph 16.2 (k) of the HK SFC

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Barclays-全球再保险：蒙特卡洛会议要点——软化之势未见放缓.pdf|Barclays-全球再保险：蒙特卡洛会议要点——软化之势未见放缓.pdf]]

### Barclays-为AI供电：数据中心的政治博弈.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Barclays-为AI供电：数据中心的政治博弈.pdf|Barclays-为AI供电：数据中心的政治博弈.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Campus Ohio, U.S. Dept. for add'l 3.75 with capacity online expected to be owned by the U.S. reliability without shifting
2. Purchase Energy up to 4.6 GW of intended to be built specifically NextEra will fund and reliability, create approximately
3. We, William Thompson, Hannah Greenberg, Michael McLean and Anika Agarwal, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report
4. accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our
5. publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY
6. 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.
7. Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment
8. Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Barclays-为AI供电：数据中心的政治博弈.pdf|Barclays-为AI供电：数据中心的政治博弈.pdf]]

### Bernstein-China Semiconductors：China Semis Tour 2H26： Demand Holds Up as Supply Tightens-260908.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-China Semiconductors：China Semis Tour 2H26： Demand Holds Up as Supply Tightens-260908.pdf|Bernstein-China Semiconductors：China Semis Tour 2H26： Demand Holds Up as Supply Tightens-260908.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Semicap.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3
2. NAURA (002371.CH)......................................................................................................................................................................................................3
3. AMEC (688012.CH).........................................................................................................................................................................................................4
4. Piotech (688072.CH)......................................................................................................................................................................................................5
5. ACM Research (688082.CH, Not Covered)............................................................................................................................................................6
6. Leadmicro Nano (688147.CH, Not Covered).........................................................................................................................................................7
7. Beijing E-Town Semiconductor (688729.CH, Not Covered).............................................................................................................................7
8. Seichi Tech (688627.CH, Not Covered)...................................................................................................................................................................8

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-China Semiconductors：China Semis Tour 2H26： Demand Holds Up as Supply Tightens-260908.pdf|Bernstein-China Semiconductors：China Semis Tour 2H26： Demand Holds Up as Supply Tightens-260908.pdf]]

### Bernstein-Qualcomm Inc（QCOM.US）Amazon deal adds confidence to datacenter targets though not upside-260908.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-Qualcomm Inc（QCOM.US）Amazon deal adds confidence to datacenter targets though not upside-260908.pdf|Bernstein-Qualcomm Inc（QCOM.US）Amazon deal adds confidence to datacenter targets though not upside-260908.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,
2. C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,
3. We value QCOM by setting a target multiple of ~15x applied to the average of our FY2027/28 diluted EPS estimate (~$11.14)
4. issues monetizing China, "leakage" of IP issues, 5G penetration and ramp slower than we model resulting in lower device or chipset
5. The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 for
6. for European insurers, the S&P 500 and S&P Financials for US banks and Payments coverage, S5LIFE for US Insurance, the S&P
7. Where this report contains investment recommendations for credit instruments, as defined in article 3(1)(35) of the Market Abuse
8. Prior to April 1, 2024, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC. issued the ratings and price target information in the graph(s) below for

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-Qualcomm Inc（QCOM.US）Amazon deal adds confidence to datacenter targets though not upside-260908.pdf|Bernstein-Qualcomm Inc（QCOM.US）Amazon deal adds confidence to datacenter targets though not upside-260908.pdf]]

### Bernstein-阿里巴巴：AI 资本开支、回购及资金需求的自下而上建模 Alibaba Bottom‑up modelling of AI capex payback, funding needs.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-阿里巴巴：AI 资本开支、回购及资金需求的自下而上建模 Alibaba Bottom‑up modelling of AI capex payback, funding needs.pdf|Bernstein-阿里巴巴：AI 资本开支、回购及资金需求的自下而上建模 Alibaba Bottom‑up modelling of AI capex payback, funding needs.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. consistent with a three year payback on capex, while channel feedback on the new M890 Absolute (%) (23.7) (13.3) (16.1) (14.6)
2. quotes for server rental prices have continued to point higher in recent months, and our Relative (%) (36.9) (15.3) (29.8) (34.7)
3. Alibaba’s share price drop following its $10.2bn equity raise has triggered significant investor grumbling. Beyond the generic
4. the fact Alibaba could easily have funded the amount raised from internal resources (e.g. $30.7bn net cash as of June 30).
5. 2024 CB raise. Even believers in the company’s AI growth strategy accepted that the recent sequence of events diluted the
6. generations of T-head silicon. At a high level, we think management’s claims around 2.5-3 year breakeven periods on capex are
7. over $100bn of external cloud revenues by FY3/31 likely requires close to RMB1tn of cumulative capex in the coming years.
8. Compared with reasonable estimates for Alibaba’s e-commerce and cloud profits, a c. RMB170bn funding gap exists which is

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-阿里巴巴：AI 资本开支、回购及资金需求的自下而上建模 Alibaba Bottom‑up modelling of AI capex payback, funding needs.pdf|Bernstein-阿里巴巴：AI 资本开支、回购及资金需求的自下而上建模 Alibaba Bottom‑up modelling of AI capex payback, funding needs.pdf]]

### Bernstein-戴尔（DELL.US）：管理层网络研讨会要点.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-戴尔（DELL.US）：管理层网络研讨会要点.pdf|Bernstein-戴尔（DELL.US）：管理层网络研讨会要点.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Overall demand continues to accelerate. Dell received approximately $61 billion of new AI server orders during the quarter,
2. shipped $16.4 billion, and ended with a $95 billion backlog of orders awaiting fulfillment. Demand also extends well beyond
3. than 60% over the past six months. It added approximately 3,300 customers over the past three quarters, roughly the same
4. margin Dell IP storage should provide additional support. In Q3, Dell expects ISG operating margin to improve by more than 1
5. same mid-single-digit range as Rubin ramps. Rubin shipments in Q3 and Q4 are already included in guidance. Current backlog
6. It targets at least 10% annual dividend growth through FY30 and is increasing the dividend by 20% this year, while recent
7. $6 billion to $7 billion previously, because the company is approximately 70% larger than one year ago. Core leverage remains
8. Capital Expenditure and Capitalized Software De(v2e,6lo5p2m)ent(2,633) (3,960) (3,793) (4,593) (963) (1,239) (879) (879)

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Bernstein-戴尔（DELL.US）：管理层网络研讨会要点.pdf|Bernstein-戴尔（DELL.US）：管理层网络研讨会要点.pdf]]

### Barclays-量子计算：知识覆盖.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Barclays-量子计算：知识覆盖.pdf|Barclays-量子计算：知识覆盖.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. We, Simon Coles, CFA and Laia Marin i Sola, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views
2. about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or
3. publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY
4. 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.
5. research report during the preceding 12 months. To view all investment recommendations published by Barclays Equity Research in the preceding 12
6. disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242, it is an “institutional debt research
7. debt research reports” as required by US FINRA Rule 2242, they will not receive any such reports that may be co-authored by non-debt research
8. not received any compensation from the subject companies in the past 12 months. If this publication contains recommendations, they are general

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Barclays-量子计算：知识覆盖.pdf|Barclays-量子计算：知识覆盖.pdf]]

### Barclays-欧洲必需消费品：上海调研纪要.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Barclays-欧洲必需消费品：上海调研纪要.pdf|Barclays-欧洲必需消费品：上海调研纪要.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. AHPFZFp5pVeWfVbR9RaQsQpPpNpRfQoOxOeRpPxPbRpOtOxNoOpPxNrNoQ

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260918_0842__外资研报__Barclays-欧洲必需消费品：上海调研纪要.pdf|Barclays-欧洲必需消费品：上海调研纪要.pdf]]