---
title: "#外资研报"
topic_id: 22258818122115141
created_at: 2026-09-15T08:35:34.525+0800
source: zsxq
type: topic
cssclasses: zsxq-vault
---

# #外资研报

- 序号：354
- 星球链接：[打开网页](https://wx.zsxq.com/group/15522451881222/topic/22258818122115141)
- 附件：图片 0，音频 0，文档 9
- 音频文件：_无音频_

## 图片

_无图片_

## 正文

详情页仍未获取到全文。原始列表正文可能被截断。

## 总体总结

主题正文
1. 详情页仍未获取到全文。
2. 原始列表正文可能被截断。

附件总结
JPM-房地产数据监测：中国大陆“828”新政后首宗现房销售地块挂牌；香港去化率分化 - 2026-09-02_Karl Chan，Venus Choi(原文).pdf
1. for commodity housing. According to estimates by E-House, ~60% of the J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.
2. 52-nuJ-42 52-luJ-12 52-guA-71 52-peS-31 52-tcO-01 52-voN-6 52-ceD-3 52-ceD-03 62-naJ-62 62-beF-22 62-raM-12 62-rpA-71 62-yaM-41 62-nuJ-01 62-luJ-7 62-guA-3 62-guA-03
3. 52-ceD-22 62-naJ-1 62-naJ-11 62-naJ-12 62-naJ-13 62-beF-01 62-beF-02 62-raM-2 62-raM-21 62-raM-22 62-rpA-1 62-rpA-11 62-rpA-12 62-yaM-1 62-yaM-11 62-yaM-12 62-yaM-13 62-nuJ-01 62-nuJ-02 62-nuJ-03 62-luJ-01 62-luJ-02 62-luJ-03 62-guA-9 62-guA-91 62-guA-92
4. 52-peS-4 52-peS-9 52-peS-41 52-peS-91 52-peS-42 52-peS-92 52-tcO-4 52-tcO-9 52-tcO-41 52-tcO-91 52-tcO-42 52-tcO-92 52-voN-3 52-voN-8 52-voN-31 52-voN-81 52-voN-32 52-voN-82 52-ceD-3 52-ceD-8 52-ceD-31 52-ceD-81 52-ceD-32 52-ceD-82 62-naJ-2 62-naJ-7 62-naJ-21 62-naJ-71 62-naJ-22 62-naJ-72 62-beF-1 62-beF-6 62-beF-11 62-beF-61 62-beF-12 62-beF-62 62-raM-3 62-raM-8 62-raM-31 62-raM-81 62-raM-32 62-raM-82 62-rpA-2 62-rpA-7 62-rpA-21 62-rpA-71 62-rpA-22 62-rpA-72 62-yaM-2 62-yaM-7 62-yaM-21 62-yaM-71 62-yaM-22 62-yaM-72 62-nuJ-1 62-nuJ-6 62-nuJ-11 62-nuJ-61 62-nuJ-12 62-nuJ-62 62-luJ-1 62-luJ-6 62-luJ-11 62-luJ-61 62-luJ-12 62-luJ-62 62-luJ-13 62-guA-5 62-guA-01 62-guA-51 62-guA-02 62-guA-52 62-guA-03
5. 62-naJ-13 62-beF-01 62-beF-02 62-raM-2 62-raM-21 62-raM-22 62-rpA-1 62-rpA-11 62-rpA-12 62-yaM-1 62-yaM-11 62-yaM-12 62-yaM-13 62-nuJ-01 62-nuJ-02 62-nuJ-03 62-luJ-01 62-luJ-02 62-luJ-03 62-guA-9 62-guA-91 62-guA-92
6. Note: The Iceberg visitation index represents the property viewings volume (带看量). An index <20 = a stagnant market, ranging from 20-
7. 12-guA 12-tcO 12-ceD 22-beF 22-rpA 22-nuJ 22-guA 22-tcO 22-ceD 32-beF 32-rpA 32-nuJ 32-guA 32-tcO 32-ceD 42-beF 42-rpA 42-nuJ 42-guA 42-tcO 42-ceD 52-beF 52-rpA 52-nuJ 52-guA 52-tcO 52-ceD 62-beF 62-rpA 62-nuJ 62-guA
8. Note: The Centaline asking price index represents the percentage of projects with home price increases. For example, an index of 20

JPM-固生堂_H-2273.HK-2026年上半年盈利展现经营韧性；接下来的考验是消费医疗业务放量和海外整合.pdf
1. 调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 514 624 780 856 965 投资活动现金流 (218) (218) (422) (217) (171)
2. 少数股东权益 0 14 14 13 12 息税折旧摊销前利润同比增长 36.2% 21.5% 25.0% 9.8% 12.7%
3. 股票估值和风险：与被研究公司或其目标价格相关的估值方法和风险，请访问 https://jpmsc.portal.jpmorgan.com，参阅最新的对
4. 历史投资建议： 您可在https://jpmsc.portal.jpmorgan.com网站查看过去12个月发布的摩根大通投资建议，您也可以在该网站中
5. ，或访问 https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/2020-08/Security_Futures_Risk_Disclosure_Statement_2020.pdf 获取证券期货风险披露声明之副本
6. (Australian Financial Services License：238066))受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(Australian Securities and Investments Commission)监管，是澳大利亚
7. 加拿大： J.P. Morgan Securities Canada Inc.是注册的投资交易商，受加拿大投资监管组织(Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization)和安大略
8. Authority, 简称DFSA) 的监管， 其注册地址是Dubai International Financial Centre - The Gate, West Wing, Level 3 and 9 PO Box 506551, Dubai,

JPM-海丰国际（1308.HK）：炉边谈话要点.pdf
1. Downside risks include: (1) industry-wide overcapacity from elevated newbuild orders and a high orderbook-to-fleet ratio,
2. individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views
3. (2) no part of any of the Research Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations
4. • Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: SITC International Holdings -
5. • Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following
6. • Non-Investment Banking Compensation Received: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or
7. Technology - A (600885.SS), International Container Terminal Services Inc (ICT.PS), J&T Express - H (1519.HK), JD Logistics
8. (2618.HK), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic - A (601100.SS), Leader Harmonious Drive System Co. (688017.SS), MTR Corp (0066.HK),

JPM-后预售时代不确定性或致板块跑输-20260913.pdf
1. Figure 2: Illustration of accumulated cash flows (before debt Figure 3: Illustration of accumulated cash flows (considering debt
2. Note: We estimate the contracted sales impact from FY27E onwards based on the decline in sellable resources. We assume part of the existing sellable resources will be absorbed in FY26
3. contracted sales, and developers will cease landbank replenishment from September 2026 (i.e. since the publication of the “828 policy”), and 20% of the existing landbank without construction
4. permits will convert into sellable resources annually. Applying the FY26E sell-through rate to the resulting sellable resources base, we derive the implied Y/Y decline in contracted sales.
5. Note: We estimate the contracted sales impact from FY27E onwards based on the decline in sellable resources. We assume part of the existing sellable resources will be absorbed in FY26
6. contracted sales, and developers will only replenish 80% of sellable resources as % of contracted sales every year, and 20% of the existing landbank without construction permits will convert into
7. sellable resources annually. Applying the FY26E sell-through rate to the resulting sellable resources base, we derive the implied Y/Y decline in contracted sales.
8. Table 6: Impact on contracted sales: *scenario 3* assume newly acquired sellable resources are 80% of sales in FY26/27, then normalize to

JPM-汇川技术(300124.SZ) - 维持FY26指引，工业自动化锚定下半年盈利反弹，新能源汽车最差时刻或已过去-20260831.pdf
1. with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report
2. n tly h a s , o r h a d w ith in th e p a s t 1 2 m o n th s , th e fo llo w in g e n tity (ie s ) a s c lie n ts : S h e n z h e n In o v a n c e T e c h n o lo g y C o .
3. Coverage Universe: Li, Karen : COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd - A (601919.SS), COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd - H (1919.HK),
4. CRRC Corp - A (601766.SS), CRRC Corp - H (1766.HK), Cathay Pacific Airways (0293.HK), China Merchants Port Holdings (0144.HK),
5. Estun Automation - A (002747.SZ), Evergreen Marine (2603.TW), Full Truck Alliance (YMM), Hongfa Technology - A (600885.SS),
6. International Container Terminal Services Inc (ICT.PS), J&T Express - H (1519.HK), JD Logistics (2618.HK), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic - A
7. (601100.SS), Leader Harmonious Drive System Co. (688017.SS), MTR Corp (0066.HK), Orbbec - A (688322.SS), Orient Overseas
8. International Limited (OOIL) (0316.HK), S.F. Holding - A (002352.SZ), S.F. Holding - H (6936.HK), SITC International Holdings - H

JPM-半导体SPE行业——上调2025–28年晶圆厂设备（WFE）市场预测至28%复合年增长率.pdf
1. NT$bn Sales 592.6 673.5 759.7 868.5 839.3 933.8 989.9 1,046.1 1,134.1 1,270.4 1,457.0 1,617.8 2,161.7 2,894.3 3,809.1 5,479.3 7,443.5 9,319.8
2. US$mn Sales 18,844.6 20,814.3 23,513.3 26,835.0 25,524.8 30,073.8 33,096.6 33,730.7 35,898.4 40,200.7 45,531.1 50,555.6 69,302.1 90,013.1 122,456.5 172,194.4 232,610.4 291,244.7
3. Grand Total 89,818 90,126 96,062 134,609 161,835 149,333 151,901 158,289 249,444 320,770 350,221 226,887 273,302 316,398
4. WFE estimates 58,944 55,480 64,905 92,335 101,101 102,820 111,777 124,452 162,500 224,500 262,700 158,800 205,000 237,300
5. 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 6 2 6 2 7 2 7 2 7 2 7 2
6. Volume (consumption) (WSTS) (mn units) 7,803 8,323 8,276 8,267 8,027 9,357 10,382 10,916 11,751 12,628 13,229 13,525 14,120 15,000 15,819 16,473 17,633 18,728 19,662 20,305
7. Revenue (US$ mn) 18,811 22,937 25,126 27,890 24,773 29,104 37,352 51,478 95,772 149,232 184,482 204,637 216,853 237,269 257,736 271,071 293,060 317,493 341,660 358,115
8. 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 6 2 6 2 7 2 7 2 7 2 7 2 8 2 8 2 8 2 8 2

JPM-北美电信、有线与卫星——2026年二季度业绩总结：二季度财报后行业核心争议焦点.pdf
1. Postpaid phone churn 0.86% 0.93% -7 bps 0.91% 0.95% -4 bps 92.04% -9,113 bps 0.91% 0.94% -3 bps 90.78% -8,988 bps 0.90% 1 bps
2. Advanced home internet service 2,926 3,013 -2.9% 3,036 3,149 -3.6% 3,067 -1.0% 11,904 12,234 -2.7% 11,974 -0.6% 9,410 26.5%
3. Business fiber and advanced connectivity services 1,946 1,895 2.7% 2,039 1,963 3.9% 2,012 1.3% 7,980 7,772 2.7% 7,908 0.9% 7,243 10.2%
4. Business transitional and other service 1,042 1,062 -1.9% 1,000 1,024 -2.3% 1,017 -1.6% 4,102 4,175 -1.7% 4,134 -0.8% 4,911 -16.5%
5. Total Advanced Connectivity Segment revenue 28,615 28,767 -0.5% 28,648 28,900 -0.9% 28,967 -1.1% 117,017 117,861 -0.7% 117,832 -0.7% 112,424 4.1%
6. EBITDA margin 32.0% 36.9% -484 bps 22.9% 26.3% -337 bps 25.8% -290 bps 29.0% 31.8% -275 bps 29.8% -81 bps 39.4% -1,039 bps
7. Branded postpaid service revenue 15,853 15,902 -0.3% 16,177 16,104 0.5% 16,112 0.4% 64,174 63,921 0.4% 64,016 0.2% 57,932 10.8%
8. Branded prepaid service revenue 2,473 2,457 0.6% 2,443 2,597 -5.9% 2,472 -1.2% 9,846 10,179 -3.3% 9,921 -0.8% 10,497 -6.2%

JPM-大宗商品策略：做多煤炭与锂业股，以黄金股对冲-20260830.pdf
1. Happy Sunday – some food for thought this weekend on tactical ideas into September & Q4 – given the dearth of newsflow on
2. comments). I think the case for Coal miners & Lithium converters looks quite attractive into the last few months of 2026 given
3. switching economics, seasonality & relative valuations. The flip side is the golds which are +40-60% in the last month but I think
4. and trying to deploy capital elsewhere - expectations are for 414 to only come back in early 2027. HK investors agree that
5. carbonate prices could be strong into next few months but think equity multiples will be capped given 2027 supply fears. Some
6. month being positive), however pushback has been this is dominated by 2 big cycle years (2021-22 & 2025-26) & thus should
7. 2026 have revisited the question of what's the right multiple for lithium equities. Most spodumene & carbonate producers
8. The Chinese Lithium Equities Screen Fairly Cheap: Ganfeng, Tianqi & PLS are trading at 60-90% discounts to their 10year P/

JPM-反内卷双轨：去库存赢家与贸易不确定性中的出口企业-20260914.pdf
1. improvement (Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 5). Logistics pioneered this transition J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/
2. Figure 1: Screen of autos, battery materials, cement, chemicals, coal, dairy, hog, liquor, lithium, logistics, and solar industries with free-float
3. Brazil 27 Aug 2026 GECEX approved definitive anti-dumping measures on PET resin from Malaysia and Vietnam and carbon-steel tubes from Ukraine, alongside a link
4. Indonesia 14 Aug 2026 KADI initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Superabsorbent Polymers from China (HS 3906.90.92 and 3906.90.99), alongside other 2026 trade- link
5. Vietnam 14 Aug 2026 Expanded customs declaration requirements introduced for selected import categories, including passenger vehicles, household appliances, tobacco and link
6. EU 07 Aug 2026 Countervailing duties of 17.0%-30.7% on Chinese glass fibre fabrics maintained following an expiry review. link
7. Argentina 06 Aug 2026 A third sunset review and changed-circumstances review was initiated concerning anti-dumping measures on Chinese unglazed floor and wall tiles (NCM link
8. Argentina 06 Aug 2026 The Ministry of Economy initiated a third sunset review and changed-circumstances review concerning anti-dumping measures on Chinese unglazed link

## 文档

### JPM-房地产数据监测：中国大陆“828”新政后首宗现房销售地块挂牌；香港去化率分化 - 2026-09-02_Karl Chan，Venus Choi(原文).pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-房地产数据监测：中国大陆“828”新政后首宗现房销售地块挂牌；香港去化率分化 - 2026-09-02_Karl Chan，Venus Choi(原文).pdf|JPM-房地产数据监测：中国大陆“828”新政后首宗现房销售地块挂牌；香港去化率分化 - 2026-09-02_Karl Chan，Venus Choi(原文).pdf]]

#### 总结

1. for commodity housing. According to estimates by E-House, ~60% of the J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.
2. 52-nuJ-42 52-luJ-12 52-guA-71 52-peS-31 52-tcO-01 52-voN-6 52-ceD-3 52-ceD-03 62-naJ-62 62-beF-22 62-raM-12 62-rpA-71 62-yaM-41 62-nuJ-01 62-luJ-7 62-guA-3 62-guA-03
3. 52-ceD-22 62-naJ-1 62-naJ-11 62-naJ-12 62-naJ-13 62-beF-01 62-beF-02 62-raM-2 62-raM-21 62-raM-22 62-rpA-1 62-rpA-11 62-rpA-12 62-yaM-1 62-yaM-11 62-yaM-12 62-yaM-13 62-nuJ-01 62-nuJ-02 62-nuJ-03 62-luJ-01 62-luJ-02 62-luJ-03 62-guA-9 62-guA-91 62-guA-92
4. 52-peS-4 52-peS-9 52-peS-41 52-peS-91 52-peS-42 52-peS-92 52-tcO-4 52-tcO-9 52-tcO-41 52-tcO-91 52-tcO-42 52-tcO-92 52-voN-3 52-voN-8 52-voN-31 52-voN-81 52-voN-32 52-voN-82 52-ceD-3 52-ceD-8 52-ceD-31 52-ceD-81 52-ceD-32 52-ceD-82 62-naJ-2 62-naJ-7 62-naJ-21 62-naJ-71 62-naJ-22 62-naJ-72 62-beF-1 62-beF-6 62-beF-11 62-beF-61 62-beF-12 62-beF-62 62-raM-3 62-raM-8 62-raM-31 62-raM-81 62-raM-32 62-raM-82 62-rpA-2 62-rpA-7 62-rpA-21 62-rpA-71 62-rpA-22 62-rpA-72 62-yaM-2 62-yaM-7 62-yaM-21 62-yaM-71 62-yaM-22 62-yaM-72 62-nuJ-1 62-nuJ-6 62-nuJ-11 62-nuJ-61 62-nuJ-12 62-nuJ-62 62-luJ-1 62-luJ-6 62-luJ-11 62-luJ-61 62-luJ-12 62-luJ-62 62-luJ-13 62-guA-5 62-guA-01 62-guA-51 62-guA-02 62-guA-52 62-guA-03
5. 62-naJ-13 62-beF-01 62-beF-02 62-raM-2 62-raM-21 62-raM-22 62-rpA-1 62-rpA-11 62-rpA-12 62-yaM-1 62-yaM-11 62-yaM-12 62-yaM-13 62-nuJ-01 62-nuJ-02 62-nuJ-03 62-luJ-01 62-luJ-02 62-luJ-03 62-guA-9 62-guA-91 62-guA-92
6. Note: The Iceberg visitation index represents the property viewings volume (带看量). An index <20 = a stagnant market, ranging from 20-
7. 12-guA 12-tcO 12-ceD 22-beF 22-rpA 22-nuJ 22-guA 22-tcO 22-ceD 32-beF 32-rpA 32-nuJ 32-guA 32-tcO 32-ceD 42-beF 42-rpA 42-nuJ 42-guA 42-tcO 42-ceD 52-beF 52-rpA 52-nuJ 52-guA 52-tcO 52-ceD 62-beF 62-rpA 62-nuJ 62-guA
8. Note: The Centaline asking price index represents the percentage of projects with home price increases. For example, an index of 20

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-房地产数据监测：中国大陆“828”新政后首宗现房销售地块挂牌；香港去化率分化 - 2026-09-02_Karl Chan，Venus Choi(原文).pdf|JPM-房地产数据监测：中国大陆“828”新政后首宗现房销售地块挂牌；香港去化率分化 - 2026-09-02_Karl Chan，Venus Choi(原文).pdf]]

### JPM-固生堂_H-2273.HK-2026年上半年盈利展现经营韧性；接下来的考验是消费医疗业务放量和海外整合.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-固生堂_H-2273.HK-2026年上半年盈利展现经营韧性；接下来的考验是消费医疗业务放量和海外整合.pdf|JPM-固生堂_H-2273.HK-2026年上半年盈利展现经营韧性；接下来的考验是消费医疗业务放量和海外整合.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. 调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 514 624 780 856 965 投资活动现金流 (218) (218) (422) (217) (171)
2. 少数股东权益 0 14 14 13 12 息税折旧摊销前利润同比增长 36.2% 21.5% 25.0% 9.8% 12.7%
3. 股票估值和风险：与被研究公司或其目标价格相关的估值方法和风险，请访问 https://jpmsc.portal.jpmorgan.com，参阅最新的对
4. 历史投资建议： 您可在https://jpmsc.portal.jpmorgan.com网站查看过去12个月发布的摩根大通投资建议，您也可以在该网站中
5. ，或访问 https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/2020-08/Security_Futures_Risk_Disclosure_Statement_2020.pdf 获取证券期货风险披露声明之副本
6. (Australian Financial Services License：238066))受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(Australian Securities and Investments Commission)监管，是澳大利亚
7. 加拿大： J.P. Morgan Securities Canada Inc.是注册的投资交易商，受加拿大投资监管组织(Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization)和安大略
8. Authority, 简称DFSA) 的监管， 其注册地址是Dubai International Financial Centre - The Gate, West Wing, Level 3 and 9 PO Box 506551, Dubai,

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-固生堂_H-2273.HK-2026年上半年盈利展现经营韧性；接下来的考验是消费医疗业务放量和海外整合.pdf|JPM-固生堂_H-2273.HK-2026年上半年盈利展现经营韧性；接下来的考验是消费医疗业务放量和海外整合.pdf]]

### JPM-海丰国际（1308.HK）：炉边谈话要点.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-海丰国际（1308.HK）：炉边谈话要点.pdf|JPM-海丰国际（1308.HK）：炉边谈话要点.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Downside risks include: (1) industry-wide overcapacity from elevated newbuild orders and a high orderbook-to-fleet ratio,
2. individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views
3. (2) no part of any of the Research Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations
4. • Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: SITC International Holdings -
5. • Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following
6. • Non-Investment Banking Compensation Received: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or
7. Technology - A (600885.SS), International Container Terminal Services Inc (ICT.PS), J&T Express - H (1519.HK), JD Logistics
8. (2618.HK), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic - A (601100.SS), Leader Harmonious Drive System Co. (688017.SS), MTR Corp (0066.HK),

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-海丰国际（1308.HK）：炉边谈话要点.pdf|JPM-海丰国际（1308.HK）：炉边谈话要点.pdf]]

### JPM-后预售时代不确定性或致板块跑输-20260913.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-后预售时代不确定性或致板块跑输-20260913.pdf|JPM-后预售时代不确定性或致板块跑输-20260913.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Figure 2: Illustration of accumulated cash flows (before debt Figure 3: Illustration of accumulated cash flows (considering debt
2. Note: We estimate the contracted sales impact from FY27E onwards based on the decline in sellable resources. We assume part of the existing sellable resources will be absorbed in FY26
3. contracted sales, and developers will cease landbank replenishment from September 2026 (i.e. since the publication of the “828 policy”), and 20% of the existing landbank without construction
4. permits will convert into sellable resources annually. Applying the FY26E sell-through rate to the resulting sellable resources base, we derive the implied Y/Y decline in contracted sales.
5. Note: We estimate the contracted sales impact from FY27E onwards based on the decline in sellable resources. We assume part of the existing sellable resources will be absorbed in FY26
6. contracted sales, and developers will only replenish 80% of sellable resources as % of contracted sales every year, and 20% of the existing landbank without construction permits will convert into
7. sellable resources annually. Applying the FY26E sell-through rate to the resulting sellable resources base, we derive the implied Y/Y decline in contracted sales.
8. Table 6: Impact on contracted sales: *scenario 3* assume newly acquired sellable resources are 80% of sales in FY26/27, then normalize to

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-后预售时代不确定性或致板块跑输-20260913.pdf|JPM-后预售时代不确定性或致板块跑输-20260913.pdf]]

### JPM-汇川技术(300124.SZ) - 维持FY26指引，工业自动化锚定下半年盈利反弹，新能源汽车最差时刻或已过去-20260831.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-汇川技术(300124.SZ) - 维持FY26指引，工业自动化锚定下半年盈利反弹，新能源汽车最差时刻或已过去-20260831.pdf|JPM-汇川技术(300124.SZ) - 维持FY26指引，工业自动化锚定下半年盈利反弹，新能源汽车最差时刻或已过去-20260831.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report
2. n tly h a s , o r h a d w ith in th e p a s t 1 2 m o n th s , th e fo llo w in g e n tity (ie s ) a s c lie n ts : S h e n z h e n In o v a n c e T e c h n o lo g y C o .
3. Coverage Universe: Li, Karen : COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd - A (601919.SS), COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd - H (1919.HK),
4. CRRC Corp - A (601766.SS), CRRC Corp - H (1766.HK), Cathay Pacific Airways (0293.HK), China Merchants Port Holdings (0144.HK),
5. Estun Automation - A (002747.SZ), Evergreen Marine (2603.TW), Full Truck Alliance (YMM), Hongfa Technology - A (600885.SS),
6. International Container Terminal Services Inc (ICT.PS), J&T Express - H (1519.HK), JD Logistics (2618.HK), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic - A
7. (601100.SS), Leader Harmonious Drive System Co. (688017.SS), MTR Corp (0066.HK), Orbbec - A (688322.SS), Orient Overseas
8. International Limited (OOIL) (0316.HK), S.F. Holding - A (002352.SZ), S.F. Holding - H (6936.HK), SITC International Holdings - H

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-汇川技术(300124.SZ) - 维持FY26指引，工业自动化锚定下半年盈利反弹，新能源汽车最差时刻或已过去-20260831.pdf|JPM-汇川技术(300124.SZ) - 维持FY26指引，工业自动化锚定下半年盈利反弹，新能源汽车最差时刻或已过去-20260831.pdf]]

### JPM-半导体SPE行业——上调2025–28年晶圆厂设备（WFE）市场预测至28%复合年增长率.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-半导体SPE行业——上调2025–28年晶圆厂设备（WFE）市场预测至28%复合年增长率.pdf|JPM-半导体SPE行业——上调2025–28年晶圆厂设备（WFE）市场预测至28%复合年增长率.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. NT$bn Sales 592.6 673.5 759.7 868.5 839.3 933.8 989.9 1,046.1 1,134.1 1,270.4 1,457.0 1,617.8 2,161.7 2,894.3 3,809.1 5,479.3 7,443.5 9,319.8
2. US$mn Sales 18,844.6 20,814.3 23,513.3 26,835.0 25,524.8 30,073.8 33,096.6 33,730.7 35,898.4 40,200.7 45,531.1 50,555.6 69,302.1 90,013.1 122,456.5 172,194.4 232,610.4 291,244.7
3. Grand Total 89,818 90,126 96,062 134,609 161,835 149,333 151,901 158,289 249,444 320,770 350,221 226,887 273,302 316,398
4. WFE estimates 58,944 55,480 64,905 92,335 101,101 102,820 111,777 124,452 162,500 224,500 262,700 158,800 205,000 237,300
5. 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 6 2 6 2 7 2 7 2 7 2 7 2
6. Volume (consumption) (WSTS) (mn units) 7,803 8,323 8,276 8,267 8,027 9,357 10,382 10,916 11,751 12,628 13,229 13,525 14,120 15,000 15,819 16,473 17,633 18,728 19,662 20,305
7. Revenue (US$ mn) 18,811 22,937 25,126 27,890 24,773 29,104 37,352 51,478 95,772 149,232 184,482 204,637 216,853 237,269 257,736 271,071 293,060 317,493 341,660 358,115
8. 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q 6 2 6 2 7 2 7 2 7 2 7 2 8 2 8 2 8 2 8 2

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-半导体SPE行业——上调2025–28年晶圆厂设备（WFE）市场预测至28%复合年增长率.pdf|JPM-半导体SPE行业——上调2025–28年晶圆厂设备（WFE）市场预测至28%复合年增长率.pdf]]

### JPM-北美电信、有线与卫星——2026年二季度业绩总结：二季度财报后行业核心争议焦点.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-北美电信、有线与卫星——2026年二季度业绩总结：二季度财报后行业核心争议焦点.pdf|JPM-北美电信、有线与卫星——2026年二季度业绩总结：二季度财报后行业核心争议焦点.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Postpaid phone churn 0.86% 0.93% -7 bps 0.91% 0.95% -4 bps 92.04% -9,113 bps 0.91% 0.94% -3 bps 90.78% -8,988 bps 0.90% 1 bps
2. Advanced home internet service 2,926 3,013 -2.9% 3,036 3,149 -3.6% 3,067 -1.0% 11,904 12,234 -2.7% 11,974 -0.6% 9,410 26.5%
3. Business fiber and advanced connectivity services 1,946 1,895 2.7% 2,039 1,963 3.9% 2,012 1.3% 7,980 7,772 2.7% 7,908 0.9% 7,243 10.2%
4. Business transitional and other service 1,042 1,062 -1.9% 1,000 1,024 -2.3% 1,017 -1.6% 4,102 4,175 -1.7% 4,134 -0.8% 4,911 -16.5%
5. Total Advanced Connectivity Segment revenue 28,615 28,767 -0.5% 28,648 28,900 -0.9% 28,967 -1.1% 117,017 117,861 -0.7% 117,832 -0.7% 112,424 4.1%
6. EBITDA margin 32.0% 36.9% -484 bps 22.9% 26.3% -337 bps 25.8% -290 bps 29.0% 31.8% -275 bps 29.8% -81 bps 39.4% -1,039 bps
7. Branded postpaid service revenue 15,853 15,902 -0.3% 16,177 16,104 0.5% 16,112 0.4% 64,174 63,921 0.4% 64,016 0.2% 57,932 10.8%
8. Branded prepaid service revenue 2,473 2,457 0.6% 2,443 2,597 -5.9% 2,472 -1.2% 9,846 10,179 -3.3% 9,921 -0.8% 10,497 -6.2%

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-北美电信、有线与卫星——2026年二季度业绩总结：二季度财报后行业核心争议焦点.pdf|JPM-北美电信、有线与卫星——2026年二季度业绩总结：二季度财报后行业核心争议焦点.pdf]]

### JPM-大宗商品策略：做多煤炭与锂业股，以黄金股对冲-20260830.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-大宗商品策略：做多煤炭与锂业股，以黄金股对冲-20260830.pdf|JPM-大宗商品策略：做多煤炭与锂业股，以黄金股对冲-20260830.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. Happy Sunday – some food for thought this weekend on tactical ideas into September & Q4 – given the dearth of newsflow on
2. comments). I think the case for Coal miners & Lithium converters looks quite attractive into the last few months of 2026 given
3. switching economics, seasonality & relative valuations. The flip side is the golds which are +40-60% in the last month but I think
4. and trying to deploy capital elsewhere - expectations are for 414 to only come back in early 2027. HK investors agree that
5. carbonate prices could be strong into next few months but think equity multiples will be capped given 2027 supply fears. Some
6. month being positive), however pushback has been this is dominated by 2 big cycle years (2021-22 & 2025-26) & thus should
7. 2026 have revisited the question of what's the right multiple for lithium equities. Most spodumene & carbonate producers
8. The Chinese Lithium Equities Screen Fairly Cheap: Ganfeng, Tianqi & PLS are trading at 60-90% discounts to their 10year P/

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-大宗商品策略：做多煤炭与锂业股，以黄金股对冲-20260830.pdf|JPM-大宗商品策略：做多煤炭与锂业股，以黄金股对冲-20260830.pdf]]

### JPM-反内卷双轨：去库存赢家与贸易不确定性中的出口企业-20260914.pdf

- 状态：skipped_existing
- 错误：
- 本地资源：[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-反内卷双轨：去库存赢家与贸易不确定性中的出口企业-20260914.pdf|JPM-反内卷双轨：去库存赢家与贸易不确定性中的出口企业-20260914.pdf]]

#### 总结

1. improvement (Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 5). Logistics pioneered this transition J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/
2. Figure 1: Screen of autos, battery materials, cement, chemicals, coal, dairy, hog, liquor, lithium, logistics, and solar industries with free-float
3. Brazil 27 Aug 2026 GECEX approved definitive anti-dumping measures on PET resin from Malaysia and Vietnam and carbon-steel tubes from Ukraine, alongside a link
4. Indonesia 14 Aug 2026 KADI initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Superabsorbent Polymers from China (HS 3906.90.92 and 3906.90.99), alongside other 2026 trade- link
5. Vietnam 14 Aug 2026 Expanded customs declaration requirements introduced for selected import categories, including passenger vehicles, household appliances, tobacco and link
6. EU 07 Aug 2026 Countervailing duties of 17.0%-30.7% on Chinese glass fibre fabrics maintained following an expiry review. link
7. Argentina 06 Aug 2026 A third sunset review and changed-circumstances review was initiated concerning anti-dumping measures on Chinese unglazed floor and wall tiles (NCM link
8. Argentina 06 Aug 2026 The Ministry of Economy initiated a third sunset review and changed-circumstances review concerning anti-dumping measures on Chinese unglazed link

#### 预览

[[assets/docs/260915_0835__外资研报__JPM-反内卷双轨：去库存赢家与贸易不确定性中的出口企业-20260914.pdf|JPM-反内卷双轨：去库存赢家与贸易不确定性中的出口企业-20260914.pdf]]