--- date: 2026-07-18 source: zsxq type: daily-index cssclasses: zsxq-vault --- # 思维纪要社 2026-07-18 目录 > 顶部按钮可在首页、研报、音频之间切换。首页只保留文字和图片，研报和音频分栏查看。 > 统计：主题 120 · 图片 53 · 音频 22 · 文档 286 ## 首页 ### 001. #Kimi - 主题笔记：[[topics/001|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2058__Kimi__5121582422225114.jpg|420]] ![[assets/images/260718_2058__Kimi__2858215455552881.jpg|420]] ### 002. #AI - 主题笔记：[[topics/002|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2057__AI__8858215455552522.jpg|420]] ### 003. #德明利 - 主题笔记：[[topics/003|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2057__德明利__8858215455558112.jpg|420]] ### 004. #美国 #大选 - 主题笔记：[[topics/004|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2056__美国 _大选__2858215455558151.jpg|420]] ![[assets/images/260718_2056__美国 _大选__2858215455558181.jpg|420]] ### 005. #美加关系 - 主题笔记：[[topics/005|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2053__美加关系__8858215455558542.jpg|420]] ### 006. #美国 - 主题笔记：[[topics/006|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2053__美国__4848514244448458.jpg|420]] ### 007. #美国 #CPI - 主题笔记：[[topics/007|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2052__美国 _CPI__5121582422222124.jpg|420]] ### 008. #SpaceX - 主题笔记：[[topics/008|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2052__SpaceX__4848514244444418.jpg|420]] ### 009. #美股 #IDC - 主题笔记：[[topics/009|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2051__美股 _IDC__8858215455555522.jpg|420]] ### 010. #伊朗 #原油 - 主题笔记：[[topics/010|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2051__伊朗 _原油__5121582422222214.jpg|420]] ### 011. #Satellite #手机直... - 主题笔记：[[topics/011|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2051__Satellite _手机直__5121582588888844.jpg|420]] ### 012. #伊朗 - 主题笔记：[[topics/012|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2048__伊朗__2858215211111881.jpg|420]] ### 013. #市场 - 主题笔记：[[topics/013|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2048__市场__4848514511111848.jpg|420]] ### 014. #氧化铝 #散热 - 主题笔记：[[topics/014|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2048__氧化铝 _散热__2858215211111541.jpg|420]] ### 015. #摩根大通 #兆易创新 - 主题笔记：[[topics/015|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2047__摩根大通 _兆易创新__1525482488881282.jpg|420]] ### 016. #Kimi - 主题笔记：[[topics/016|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2046__Kimi__4848514511112488.jpg|420]] ### 017. #市场 - 主题笔记：[[topics/017|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2046__市场__1525482488881252.jpg|420]] ![[assets/images/260718_2046__市场__8858215211114582.jpg|420]] ### 018. #美股 - 主题笔记：[[topics/018|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2046__美股__5121582588885484.jpg|420]] ### 019. #Kimi - 主题笔记：[[topics/019|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2045__Kimi__1525482488884182.jpg|420]] ### 020. #壁仞科技 - 主题笔记：[[topics/020|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2045__壁仞科技__8858215211112442.jpg|420]] ### 021. 【国联民生能源 周泰团队】化工耗煤量同比增速+2.5%，环比增速-3.1% 截至7月17日当周，化工行业合计耗煤699.47万吨，同比+2.5%，周环比-3.1 - 主题笔记：[[topics/021|打开完整笔记]] 【国联民生能源 周泰团队】化工耗煤量同比增速+2.5%，环比增速-3.1% 截至7月17日当周，化工行业合计耗煤699.47万吨，同比+2.5%，周环比-3.1%。其中，甲醇耗煤344.91万吨，同比+1.3%，周环比-5.2%；乙二醇耗煤61.89万吨，同比-8.7%，周环比-0.2%；新型煤化工合计耗煤406.8万吨，同比-0.4%，周环比-4.5%。合成氨耗煤191.46万吨，同比+14.8%，周环比-0.8%；PVC耗煤50.85万吨，同比-12.1%，周环比-2.9%；纯碱耗煤50.36万吨，同比+2.3%，周环比-0.6%；传统煤化工合计耗… ### 022. #电力 - 主题笔记：[[topics/022|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2044__电力__8858215211112452.jpg|420]] ### 023. Kimi K3 刚刚揭示了为什么 Jensen 一直支持开源赢得整个 AI 竞赛（保存此文）。 如果只有两三个实验室，比如 OpenAI、Anthropic 和 - 主题笔记：[[topics/023|打开完整笔记]] Kimi K3 刚刚揭示了为什么 Jensen 一直支持开源赢得整个 AI 竞赛（保存此文）。 如果只有两三个实验室，比如 OpenAI、Anthropic 和 Google，最终控制了前沿 AI，它们就会成为计算资源的超级大买家。 这乍听起来对 Nvidia 有利，但实际上很危险。 ### 024. AI应用走到哪了 华鑫传媒 2从“技术可用”到“商业可看” 2026年AI应用端看，从1月的GEO到2月的Seedance再到3月的Open Claw，4~6月 - 主题笔记：[[topics/024|打开完整笔记]] AI应用走到哪了 华鑫传媒 2从“技术可用”到“商业可看” ### 025. 领导好，今日周五+韩国休市，市场杀出恐慌盘，市场传个别融资爆仓问题，但从数据出发不必过于悲观。 市场整体维持担保比例自924以来最低点在240.4，最近两次调整 - 主题笔记：[[topics/025|打开完整笔记]] 领导好，今日周五+韩国休市，市场杀出恐慌盘，市场传个别融资爆仓问题，但从数据出发不必过于悲观。 市场整体维持担保比例自924以来最低点在240.4，最近两次调整看维持担保比能够在270探底，截至昨日维持担保比为272.7。 ### 026. #OpenAI - 主题笔记：[[topics/026|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2044__OpenAI__4848514511115558.jpg|420]] ### 027. #市场 - 主题笔记：[[topics/027|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2043__市场__2858215211112841.jpg|420]] ### 028. 存储供需仍偏紧，AI需求持续支撑行业 除Trivariate外，Evercore ISI也对存储行业保持相对乐观。 该机构表示，根据供应链调研及整机厂商反馈，D - 主题笔记：[[topics/028|打开完整笔记]] 存储供需仍偏紧，AI需求持续支撑行业 除Trivariate外，Evercore ISI也对存储行业保持相对乐观。 该机构表示，根据供应链调研及整机厂商反馈，DRAM和NAND市场供给紧张状况预计将在今年年底进一步加剧，并可能持续至明年大部分时间。在AI服务器、高性能计算等需求持续增长背景下，存储芯片价格短期内未必会迅速进入下行周期。 ### 029. #中创新航 - 主题笔记：[[topics/029|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2043__中创新航__4848514511115888.jpg|420]] ### 030. 【申万宏源通信】 光通信持续高景气，国产算网提速——通信行业26Q2前瞻 [爱心]AI主线持续强化，国内外景气共振。 1）AI主线：预计将围绕海外映射、光通信景 - 主题笔记：[[topics/030|打开完整笔记]] 【申万宏源通信】 光通信持续高景气，国产算网提速——通信行业26Q2前瞻 [爱心]AI主线持续强化，国内外景气共振。 1）AI主线：预计将围绕海外映射、光通信景气度以及光电技术变化持续走强。 ### 031. 化工核心观点：波动不改长景气，化工三季度估值修复可期-20260717 [玫瑰] 一、近一年化工行情回顾：前阶段估值修 复，后阶段震荡分化 👉2025 年 7 - 主题笔记：[[topics/031|打开完整笔记]] 化工核心观点：波动不改长景气，化工三季度估值修复可期-20260717 [玫瑰] 一、近一年化工行情回顾：前阶段估值修 复，后阶段震荡分化 👉2025 年 7 月，行业供给收缩“反内卷”、碳达峰政策预期推动化工开启估值修复；2026 年 1 月板块大幅上涨透支估值；3 月以来，油价震荡、资金流向科技赛道，板块持续消化估值，传统周期品走弱，AI 新材料逆势走强。 ### 032. #EDA #存储 - 主题笔记：[[topics/032|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2043__EDA _存储__8858215211112542.jpg|420]] ### 033. 锂电池材料价格周报 / - 主题笔记：[[topics/033|打开完整笔记]] 锂电池材料价格周报 / ### 034. #存储 - 主题笔记：[[topics/034|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2041__存储__1525482488882442.jpg|420]] ### 035. 【东吴纺服】李宁2026Q2流水点评：零售波动，库里合作落地。 26Q2李宁（不含young）全渠道零售流水同比下滑低单位数，其中线下/电商分别同比下滑低单/增 - 主题笔记：[[topics/035|打开完整笔记]] 【东吴纺服】李宁2026Q2流水点评：零售波动，库里合作落地。 26Q2李宁（不含young）全渠道零售流水同比下滑低单位数，其中线下/电商分别同比下滑低单/增长中单位数，线下渠道中直营/批发分别同比下滑低单/中单。Q2宏观消费环境有所波动，叠加多雨天气影响，线下客流量低于此前公司预期。 折扣同比加深，库存维持健康。1）折扣方面，26Q2整体折扣承压，线下折扣同比加深中单位数、线上折扣同比加深低单位数，包含奥莱的线下折扣绝对水平处于6折中段。2）库存方面，截至2026年6月底全渠道库销比接近4个月，库龄结构良好、处于可控状态。 ### 036. 底部持续坚定推荐【华新建材】：周期估值买成长股 6月30底部至今涨幅40%。 Q2归母超预期，预计得益于海外量价齐增，汇兑敞口可控，国内表现显著优于行业。 海外 - 主题笔记：[[topics/036|打开完整笔记]] 底部持续坚定推荐【华新建材】：周期估值买成长股 6月30底部至今涨幅40%。 Q2归母超预期，预计得益于海外量价齐增，汇兑敞口可控，国内表现显著优于行业。 ### 037. 今日2点有资金抄底，但融资盘涌出再度压制低点收盘。按估算今天融资下降幅度将是两年之最。 上证跌破年线后加速下跌，扣除科技和红利（护盘），其他构成主要产业的板块头 - 主题笔记：[[topics/037|打开完整笔记]] 今日2点有资金抄底，但融资盘涌出再度压制低点收盘。按估算今天融资下降幅度将是两年之最。 上证跌破年线后加速下跌，扣除科技和红利（护盘），其他构成主要产业的板块头部都在2021年。也就是说，除了924脉冲，80%行业的熊市已经持续五年。要不是科技景气度持续提升，还有主线结构维系赚钱效应，后果不堪设想。后市应该拯救景气度板块，而非拯救基本面恶化板块，尚可一战。科技要是团灭，大家就该休息了。考虑到第一次有主动资金抄底科技，预计最多三个交易日左右可见科技阶段性低点。做不来就卧倒，因为其他地方更差。情绪钟摆这次回摆过头，基本面景气度仍在。 祝大家保持好心情，不要… ![[assets/images/260718_2040_今日2点有资金抄底，但融资盘涌出再度压制低点收盘。按估算今天融资下降幅度将是两年之最。 上证跌破年线__1525482488882512.jpg|420]] ### 038. 【申万宏源通信】26Q2前瞻 1）AI主线：预计将围绕海外映射、光通信以及光电技术变化持续。 海外映射方面，从Scale out向Scale up的转向日益显著 - 主题笔记：[[topics/038|打开完整笔记]] 【申万宏源通信】26Q2前瞻 1）AI主线：预计将围绕海外映射、光通信以及光电技术变化持续。 海外映射方面，从Scale out向Scale up的转向日益显著； 景气度方面，随着硅光加速与CPO深入推进，光电混合的趋势确定性夯实。 ### 039. 【东吴纺服】361度2026Q2流水点评：经营韧性突出 26Q2运营数据：1）流水：26Q2主品牌线下/童装线下/电商流水分别同比增长中高单位数/中高单位数/高 - 主题笔记：[[topics/039|打开完整笔记]] 【东吴纺服】361度2026Q2流水点评：经营韧性突出 26Q2运营数据：1）流水：26Q2主品牌线下/童装线下/电商流水分别同比增长中高单位数/中高单位数/高单位数。2）折扣：26Q2大装、童装折扣率均在7.1折左右，环比26Q1的7折收窄改善。3）库存：26Q2库销比维持在4.5-5倍的稳定健康区间。相比26Q1（主品牌/童装约10%、电商中双位数）。 Q2各渠道流水增速环比小幅放缓，我们判断主要受二季度消费大盘承压、基数较高及行业结构性调整影响，但各渠道均维持正增长、折扣与库存改善，经营韧性突出。 ### 040. #OpenAI #Anthro... - 主题笔记：[[topics/040|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2040__OpenAI _Anthro__1525482488882212.jpg|420]] ### 041. 【招商电新】锂电消费税落地，影响可控-20260717 政策正式落地 财政部、海关总署、税务总局发布《关于调整部分电池消费税政策的公告》，2026年9月起，锂离 - 主题笔记：[[topics/041|打开完整笔记]] 【招商电新】锂电消费税落地，影响可控-20260717 政策正式落地 财政部、海关总署、税务总局发布《关于调整部分电池消费税政策的公告》，2026年9月起，锂离子蓄电池按2%征收消费税，2027年9月起提升至4%。今年仅影响4个月，执行节奏较温和。 ### 042. 锂电消费税点评-20260717 引用此前亿纬刘工说法，消费税这点影响，大部分传导给客户，而且这点税都不如材料几天波动带来的大。核心利好行业出清，小电池厂未来退 - 主题笔记：[[topics/042|打开完整笔记]] 锂电消费税点评-20260717 引用此前亿纬刘工说法，消费税这点影响，大部分传导给客户，而且这点税都不如材料几天波动带来的大。核心利好行业出清，小电池厂未来退出概率增加。 本次加征消费税时间和幅度都符合市场此前预期，产业和资本市场都已经有预期。此外，消费税对出口电池没有影响，目前企业出口比例基本都超过20% ### 043. #超节点 #华为 - 主题笔记：[[topics/043|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2039__超节点 _华为__2858215211141581.jpg|420]] ![[assets/images/260718_2039__超节点 _华为__8858215211141142.jpg|420]] ### 044. 📈 💬Scion 资产管理公司创始人伯里于上周五在 X 平台发文表示：“当下正是布局港股、挖掘低价优质个股的窗口期，随着韩国、日本股市以及费城半导体指数（SOX - 主题笔记：[[topics/044|打开完整笔记]] 📈 💬Scion 资产管理公司创始人伯里于上周五在 X 平台发文表示：“当下正是布局港股、挖掘低价优质个股的窗口期，随着韩国、日本股市以及费城半导体指数（SOXX）的行情热度逐步消退，港股这类低估值股票有望迎来不错的上涨行情”。 📌伯里在本月早些时候就对外透露，自己已经加仓了中国电商公司京东的股票。 ### 045. #招商 #ETF - 主题笔记：[[topics/045|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2039__招商 _ETF__1525482488818252.jpg|420]] ### 046. 茅台年内二次提价解读：单次对26年利润贡献2.5%左右，两次提价压实业绩增长目标 🔥批价近3月稳定在1650+（验证基础需求稳定） 🔥供需平衡：上半年发货进度过 - 主题笔记：[[topics/046|打开完整笔记]] 茅台年内二次提价解读：单次对26年利润贡献2.5%左右，两次提价压实业绩增长目标 🔥批价近3月稳定在1650+（验证基础需求稳定） 🔥供需平衡：上半年发货进度过70%，下半年53°普飞供给相对较少VS传统旺季 ### 047. #东财 #韩股 - 主题笔记：[[topics/047|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2039__东财 _韩股__2858215211144151.jpg|420]] ### 048. 🤖Kimi K3 或许会成为人工智能发展进程里一个重要转折点，它对 Anthropic、OpenAI 两家公司大概率会形成利空影响，但对于全球其余几乎所有公司整 - 主题笔记：[[topics/048|打开完整笔记]] 🤖Kimi K3 或许会成为人工智能发展进程里一个重要转折点，它对 Anthropic、OpenAI 两家公司大概率会形成利空影响，但对于全球其余几乎所有公司整体而言都具备正向作用，这句话完全是字面层面的判断。 🛰️虽说真正意义上的 “斯普特尼克时刻”，应当诞生一款兼顾开源属性与 Token 使用效率的前沿大模型，可目前的 Kimi K3 并不满足高效省 Token 这一条件；根据 Artificial Analysis 机构测算数据，。 📑 ### 049. 营业部调研 反馈核心要点 hcfy 两融目前未见强平风险。截至今天中午 低于120%强平线客户仅0.25%，低于130%警戒线约1.5%，在140%以下的约3% - 主题笔记：[[topics/049|打开完整笔记]] 营业部调研 反馈核心要点 hcfy 两融目前未见强平风险。截至今天中午 低于120%强平线客户仅0.25%，低于130%警戒线约1.5%，在140%以下的约3%，150%以下约8%。 1）考虑到通常客户低于警戒线后追加担保的可能性高于50%，强平风险不大。 ### 050. #东财 #情绪 - 主题笔记：[[topics/050|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2039__东财 _情绪__2858215211144411.jpg|420]] ### 051. 🍁🍁🍁光模块液冷cage双雄奕东电子和鼎通科技持续重点推荐20260717：持续坚定看好 🍁即使市场回调，我们依然坚定看好。不为别的，核心趋势在这里，明年那么多 - 主题笔记：[[topics/051|打开完整笔记]] 🍁🍁🍁光模块液冷cage双雄奕东电子和鼎通科技持续重点推荐20260717：持续坚定看好 🍁即使市场回调，我们依然坚定看好。不为别的，核心趋势在这里，明年那么多利润摆在那里，底部坚定建议买入。恐慌的资金很多，但是如果相信产业趋势，当下胜率极高。 🍁还是明确推荐：行业趋势没问题，市场规模明年急速放大至300-400亿元，两家分享75-100亿元利润，现在两家市值合计500亿元，从基本面上看不到两家公司有什么问题，整体ai行业回调带来买入机会，持续重点推荐两家公司。 ### 052. #国联 #策略 - 主题笔记：[[topics/052|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2038__国联 _策略__2858215211144421.jpg|420]] ### 053. 贵州茅台提价点评 [庆祝]事件：茅台公告对飞天茅台进行提价，其中经销商合同价和零售价分别 上调7.9%和6.5%。 [玫瑰]1、茅台量价调整极为谨慎，此次提价反 - 主题笔记：[[topics/053|打开完整笔记]] 贵州茅台提价点评 [庆祝]事件：茅台公告对飞天茅台进行提价，其中经销商合同价和零售价分别 上调7.9%和6.5%。 [玫瑰]1、茅台量价调整极为谨慎，此次提价反映：（1） 以价在量先的高端品牌思维。（2） 对价格和市场的信心，3月份以来传统淡 季，压力测试后，飞天批价维持在1650元+，成交价1700元+。（3）国家价格 管制的放松或引导。（4）践行价格 “市场导向、小步快跑”原则。 ### 054. #苹果 - 主题笔记：[[topics/054|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2038__苹果__5121582588844454.jpg|420]] ### 055. 【中信证券A股策略】7月17日市场波动点评 短期看，市场主要为资金面承压。部分抱团资金触及止损或风控阈值后被动减仓，流动性负反馈的修复仍有待观察。但市场并非缺乏 - 主题笔记：[[topics/055|打开完整笔记]] 【中信证券A股策略】7月17日市场波动点评 短期看，市场主要为资金面承压。部分抱团资金触及止损或风控阈值后被动减仓，流动性负反馈的修复仍有待观察。但市场并非缺乏承接，调整过程中已有机构资金逐步增持产业趋势明确、业绩能见度较高且估值趋于合理的科技龙头。因此，当前更接近筹码结构再平衡，而非全市场流动性资金撤退。 宽基ETF持续大额净流入，大资金为市场注入流动性。本周宽基ETF转为净流入态势，7月13日-16日宽基ETF累计净流入914.1亿元。7月17日午后宽基ETF成交额持续放大，部分沪深300ETF、创业板ETF、科创50ETF成交额突破100亿元。 ### 056. #美国 #大选 - 主题笔记：[[topics/056|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2038__美国 _大选__4848514511122258.jpg|420]] ### 057. 中远通：AI电源突破，V客户迎来进展 [太阳]公司为华为供应通讯电源起家，与AI电源技术同源。服务器电源先后成为IBM、思科的供应商，并与谷歌对接。国内与头部客 - 主题笔记：[[topics/057|打开完整笔记]] 中远通：AI电源突破，V客户迎来进展 [太阳]公司为华为供应通讯电源起家，与AI电源技术同源。服务器电源先后成为IBM、思科的供应商，并与谷歌对接。国内与头部客户预计年内实现批量出货， [太阳]公司是国内HVDC电源的技术先驱，2009年开始供应240V直流电源，当前全电压等级均有产品。柜外电源与V客户合作近期有望落地，以电源模组为突破口我未来有望深度合作，完善公司渠道能力。 ### 058. #IDC - 主题笔记：[[topics/058|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2038__IDC__5121582588844414.jpg|420]] ### 059. 市场融资数据分享 1）融资余额：科技板块开始大幅流出，去杠杆较为明显，其他板块相对平稳。融资余额自7月以来累计下滑超过1100亿元，其中主要净流出来自于电子行业 - 主题笔记：[[topics/059|打开完整笔记]] 市场融资数据分享 1）融资余额：科技板块开始大幅流出，去杠杆较为明显，其他板块相对平稳。融资余额自7月以来累计下滑超过1100亿元，其中主要净流出来自于电子行业（-360亿元）。前期过度拥挤的电子板块叠加去杠杆交易，风险开始集中释放。目前6月流入科技板块的融资余额已经流出过半。 2）ETF：本周500和1000ETF，行业（科技类）ETF仍然大幅净流入。宽基ETF净流入我们认为存在：1、稳定资金开始救场；2、指增策略卖出股指期货（贴水转升水）买入现货ETF，这两种可能，目前倾向于可能性2，因此国家队可能还未入市救场。 ### 060. 比亚迪电子：AIDC的路线图核心在液冷&电源，或已处于盈利复苏的起点 20260717 比亚迪电子的AIDC定价核心在于液冷 和电源。 关于光模块，最早追溯到2 - 主题笔记：[[topics/060|打开完整笔记]] 比亚迪电子：AIDC的路线图核心在液冷&电源，或已处于盈利复苏的起点 20260717 比亚迪电子的AIDC定价核心在于液冷 和电源。 关于光模块，最早追溯到25年中报。公司提及800G量产准备好，规划5万片月产能；1.6T EVT完成，进行测试和优化；CPO 布局中。 后续无更清晰的展望&指引。 ### 061. #市场 - 主题笔记：[[topics/061|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2037__市场__2858215211144241.jpg|420]] ### 062. 【机械】如市场企稳，哪些值得重视？[福][福][福] 大票： 1、杰瑞股份：AIDC设备将超预期 2、松发股份：“老登”中的“战斗机” 3、恒立液压：不仅仅是机 - 主题笔记：[[topics/062|打开完整笔记]] 【机械】如市场企稳，哪些值得重视？[福][福][福] 大票： 1、杰瑞股份：AIDC设备将超预期 ### 063. #AI #Kimi - 主题笔记：[[topics/063|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2037__AI _Kimi__4848514511122548.jpg|420]] ![[assets/images/260718_2037__AI _Kimi__4848514511122528.jpg|420]] ![[assets/images/260718_2037__AI _Kimi__1525482488811152.jpg|420]] ### 064. [红包]【华创新材料孙维容团队】 从同创普润招股书看江丰电子 [太阳] 同创普润与江丰电子的关系： 两家公司实际控制人均为姚力军，同创普润定位于江丰电子上游，为 - 主题笔记：[[topics/064|打开完整笔记]] [红包]【华创新材料孙维容团队】 从同创普润招股书看江丰电子 [太阳] 同创普润与江丰电子的关系： 两家公司实际控制人均为姚力军，同创普润定位于江丰电子上游，为其供应超高纯钽、铜、铝及合金等溅射靶材原材料。江丰电子为同创普润第一大客户，2023—2025年贡献收入占比分别为36.84%、53.58%和53.08%，双方已形成较深的产业链协同关系。 [太阳] 同创普润竞争优势： 公司具备4N5—6N钽、7N铜、6N铝、5N锰等电子级超高纯金属量产能力，是国内唯一能够量产12英寸先进制程超高纯钽靶坯、全球唯二能够量产电子级超高纯锰的供应商。根据招股书援引的… ### 065. 🔥建议关注米奥会展：会展主业迎来拐点，全面转型AI驱动的出海综合服务商 ♟米奥系当前社服板块呈现清晰拐点的标的；此前主业的冲击因素消弭，仍是轻资产、高毛利、强现 - 主题笔记：[[topics/065|打开完整笔记]] 🔥建议关注米奥会展：会展主业迎来拐点，全面转型AI驱动的出海综合服务商 ♟米奥系当前社服板块呈现清晰拐点的标的；此前主业的冲击因素消弭，仍是轻资产、高毛利、强现金流的稳健利润来源；同时，当前公司全面转型AI的战略布局清晰，有望重塑整体叙事。 ⭐展会主业修复，二季报预告发完利空释放。公司原计划年内举办16000个左右展位；在6.17-6.19举办的迪拜展取消系当前最主要的业绩承压来源；此前悲观预期下认为全年中东展会均将受到冲击，当前实际情况来看，随着中东趋势有所缓和，下半年展会仍在开办，部分专业展推迟至年底举办，下半年展会目前销售情况良好；地缘局势对于主… ### 066. #白毛 #Innolight - 主题笔记：[[topics/066|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2036__白毛 _Innolight__8858215211144882.jpg|420]] ### 067. 富满微：21年的历史回眸，这是一道简单题 [庆祝]2021年 产业背景：疫情导致的供需错配（特殊卫生事件导致的供给受限，Overbooking导致了需求的牛鞭效 - 主题笔记：[[topics/067|打开完整笔记]] 富满微：21年的历史回眸，这是一道简单题 [庆祝]2021年 产业背景：疫情导致的供需错配（特殊卫生事件导致的供给受限，Overbooking导致了需求的牛鞭效应），20Q4开始出现了非常夸张的涨价 ### 068. #白毛 #Meta - 主题笔记：[[topics/068|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2036__白毛 _Meta__8858215211144512.jpg|420]] ### 069. 【冰轮环境调研更新20260717】北美AIDC一次侧冷源稀缺卡位——天风家电团队 业务框架：压缩机+换热为底，三条温度带切分市场 主业为压缩机加换热容器集成， - 主题笔记：[[topics/069|打开完整笔记]] 【冰轮环境调研更新20260717】北美AIDC一次侧冷源稀缺卡位——天风家电团队 业务框架：压缩机+换热为底，三条温度带切分市场 主业为压缩机加换热容器集成，按温度带分三块：低温（0℃至零下261℃，食品冷链、氢能、CCUS等）营收约占50%；中温暖通空调（顿汉布什品牌）约占45%，其中通用舒适性空调不到30%，其余为电子厂房、数据中心、核电冷却等特种领域；高温工业热泵5%，原料为工业余热、成本接近0。 ### 070. #甲骨文 - 主题笔记：[[topics/070|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2036__甲骨文__8858215211144582.jpg|420]] ### 071. 📈📈📈 九安医疗：投资DEEPSEEK 落地，继续底部强call，目标 800-1000亿不变 hcjsj. 1 根据已披露信息，公司已卡位月之暗面、DeepS - 主题笔记：[[topics/071|打开完整笔记]] 📈📈📈 九安医疗：投资DEEPSEEK 落地，继续底部强call，目标 800-1000亿不变 hcjsj. 1 根据已披露信息，公司已卡位月之暗面、DeepSeek两大国产头部大模型。2026H1业绩预告归母净利润28-34亿元、同比+204%~270%，公司明确系科创投资底层标的估值上涨所致，投资主业已成为利润核心来源。 2 DeepSeek于6月完成首轮约510亿元融资，为梁文锋、腾讯、宁德时代、京东、网易等重量级资本共同参与，估值约4000亿元（逾500亿美元），且第二轮融资已启动。九安香港出资7.5亿元通过天津拾象基金间接参投，穿透后持股0.… ### 072. #台积电 - 主题笔记：[[topics/072|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2036__台积电__1525482488811252.jpg|420]] ![[assets/images/260718_2036__台积电__2858215455552851.jpg|420]] ### 073. 安踏体育26Q2交流更新【国金纺服】 安踏体育Q2流水低单增长 1️⃣其中线下包含儿童流水有压力；618良好表现带动线上增长低双位数。折扣方面大货线下7折，同比 - 主题笔记：[[topics/073|打开完整笔记]] 安踏体育26Q2交流更新【国金纺服】 安踏体育Q2流水低单增长 1️⃣其中线下包含儿童流水有压力；618良好表现带动线上增长低双位数。折扣方面大货线下7折，同比基本持平，线下略低于5折，同比略加深；全渠道库销比维持5个月健康水平。 ### 074. #Kimi - 主题笔记：[[topics/074|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2035__Kimi__5121582588845844.jpg|420]] ![[assets/images/260718_2035__Kimi__5121582588844224.jpg|420]] ### 075. 乐舒适：肯尼亚、乌干达业务分享要点 肯尼亚-集团第一大海外市场 [玫瑰]国家：东非共同体最大经济体，人均GDP为2132美元；人口红利加速释放，5643万人，0 - 主题笔记：[[topics/075|打开完整笔记]] 乐舒适：肯尼亚、乌干达业务分享要点 肯尼亚-集团第一大海外市场 [玫瑰]国家：东非共同体最大经济体，人均GDP为2132美元；人口红利加速释放，5643万人，0-3岁占人口7.9% ### 076. #Meta - 主题笔记：[[topics/076|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2035__Meta__2858215211142181.jpg|420]] ### 077. 汇量科技（HK1860）：股份回购彰显信心，关注新基建测试和流水情况！ 发布最高3亿港元回购计划 ▶7月17日，公司公告按6月股东大会授权，最高回购3亿港元。 - 主题笔记：[[topics/077|打开完整笔记]] 汇量科技（HK1860）：股份回购彰显信心，关注新基建测试和流水情况！ 发布最高3亿港元回购计划 ▶7月17日，公司公告按6月股东大会授权，最高回购3亿港元。 ### 078. #甲骨文 - 主题笔记：[[topics/078|打开完整笔记]] ![[assets/images/260718_2035__甲骨文__2858215211142551.jpg|420]] ### 079. 我们近一周首推到tcl科技，表现不错。重申逻辑：上半年利润37e-39e，目前1000e市值。25年折旧高峰期，2年后看100e利润 - 主题笔记：[[topics/079|打开完整笔记]] 我们近一周首推到tcl科技，表现不错。重申逻辑：上半年利润37e-39e，目前1000e市值。25年折旧高峰期，2年后看100e利润 ### 080. 金山云Preview Update | 中信证券计算机 [红包]预计单Q2收入30亿以上，争取同比增速30% [红包]Q2毛利率预计14-15%，毛利承压主要系 - 主题笔记：[[topics/080|打开完整笔记]] 金山云Preview Update | 中信证券计算机 [红包]预计单Q2收入30亿以上，争取同比增速30% [红包]Q2毛利率预计14-15%，毛利承压主要系行业云毛利拖累，随着AI云占比提升及新签订单涨价，H2将逐渐缓解。 ### 081. 【华泰通信｜液冷行业点评：Atlas 950批量交付在即，国产液冷供应链进入订单兑现期】 Atlas950有望推动昇腾液冷由验证转向量产。若Atlas 950 - 主题笔记：[[topics/081|打开完整笔记]] 【华泰通信｜液冷行业点评：Atlas 950批量交付在即，国产液冷供应链进入订单兑现期】 Atlas950有望推动昇腾液冷由验证转向量产。若Atlas 950 SuperPoD于2026Q4批量上市，国内液冷产业链有望迎来冷板、CDU及快速接头需求同步放量。超节点功率密度持续提升，液冷已由可选配置升级为基础设施刚需；同时，昇腾平台认证周期通常长达12—24个月，已完成送样、测试及系统适配的企业具备明显先发优势。 冷板及系统集成环节、英维克、高澜股份、川润股份具备较强卡位。英维克已形成液冷设计、设备交付及运维服务闭环，客户更换供应商需要重新进行整机验证，… ### 082. 【国泰海通电新徐强团队】电池消费税：利空出尽，板块即将进入强现实 事件：自2026年9月1日起，对无汞原电池、金属氢化物镍蓄电池、锂原电池、锂离子蓄电池、全钒液 - 主题笔记：[[topics/082|打开完整笔记]] 【国泰海通电新徐强团队】电池消费税：利空出尽，板块即将进入强现实 事件：自2026年9月1日起，对无汞原电池、金属氢化物镍蓄电池、锂原电池、锂离子蓄电池、全钒液流电池按照2%税率征收消费税；自2027年9月1日起，对上述电池产品按照4%税率征收消费税。 点评 ### 083. 📑 💼本周瑞银举办私营人工智能软件公司闭门会议，本次会议核心结论为人工智能需求持续旺盛、营收增长预期向好、开源模型落地速度加快。 💼随着各类企业应用场景从测试阶 - 主题笔记：[[topics/083|打开完整笔记]] 📑 💼本周瑞银举办私营人工智能软件公司闭门会议，本次会议核心结论为人工智能需求持续旺盛、营收增长预期向好、开源模型落地速度加快。 💼随着各类企业应用场景从测试阶段迈入量产规模化部署阶段，各类机构愈发重视优化单 Token 使用成本、提升投资回报率；部分服务商（例如微软 Copilot）已将部分客户的授权模式从席位订阅制切换为按量计费模式。 ### 084. 📊 一、股基 📌1. 被动权益： 💡全市场双边成交相较前两日明显缩量，全市场成交额约 2.65 万亿元，仅为 20 日均值的 85%，多空比约 1.5:1，市场 - 主题笔记：[[topics/084|打开完整笔记]] 📊 一、股基 📌1. 被动权益： ## 研报 ### 085. #数据库 #电动车 #WAIC - 主题笔记：[[topics/085|打开完整笔记]] - WAIC 2026世界人工智能大会日程表（分类导航版）.xlsx [本地](assets/docs/260718_1100__%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%BA%93%20_%E7%94%B5%E5%8A%A8%E8%BD%A6%20_WAIC__WAIC%202026%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E5%A4%A7%E4%BC%9A%E6%97%A5%E7%A8%8B%E8%A1%A8%EF%BC%88%E5%88%86%E7%B1%BB%E5%AF%BC%E8%88%AA%E7%89%88%EF%BC%89.xlsx) [来源](https://files.zsxq.com/Fmc-XvLgF9jb6MAO1-W744ODm2ha?attname=WAIC%202026%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E5%A4%A7%E4%BC%9A%E6%97%A5%E7%A8%8B%E8%A1%A8%EF%BC%88%E5%88%86%E7%B1%BB%E5%AF%BC%E8%88%AA%E7%89%88%EF%BC%89.xlsx&e=1784402971&token=q6iZ0sQtf9U7s1qz0r4yMawNq3-u2w6lbnai6y2J:z2-DhQGcDBh6iXY1kPFWjx2uOPI=) - 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开源证券-汽车行业周报：AI+BOX有望成为车载第三算力终端-260705.pdf [本地](assets/docs/260718_1056__%E7%A0%94%E6%8A%A5__%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8-%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9AAI%2BBOX%E6%9C%89%E6%9C%9B%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E8%BD%A6%E8%BD%BD%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E7%AE%97%E5%8A%9B%E7%BB%88%E7%AB%AF-260705.pdf) [来源](https://files.zsxq.com/Fgqm-3qwZATYK1dBM8HdS2Q1qjvr?attname=%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8-%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9AAI%2BBOX%E6%9C%89%E6%9C%9B%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E8%BD%A6%E8%BD%BD%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E7%AE%97%E5%8A%9B%E7%BB%88%E7%AB%AF-260705.pdf&e=1784399546&token=q6iZ0sQtf9U7s1qz0r4yMawNq3-u2w6lbnai6y2J:8nJuFLBOVeYPe9Ww61qRklAwjDs=) - 开源证券-泰凯英(920020)北交所首次覆盖报告：矿山及建筑轮胎新模式“小巨人“，智能矿山驱动新成长-260708.pdf [本地](assets/docs/260718_1056__%E7%A0%94%E6%8A%A5__%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8-%E6%B3%B0%E5%87%AF%E8%8B%B1%28920020%29%E5%8C%97%E4%BA%A4%E6%89%80%E9%A6%96%E6%AC%A1%E8%A6%86%E7%9B%96%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A%EF%BC%9A%E7%9F%BF%E5%B1%B1%E5%8F%8A%E5%BB%BA%E7%AD%91%E8%BD%AE%E8%83%8E%E6%96%B0%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E2%80%9C%E5%B0%8F%E5%B7%A8%E4%BA%BA%E2%80%9C%EF%BC%8C%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E7%9F%BF%E5%B1%B1%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8%E6%96%B0%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF-260708.pdf) [来源](https://files.zsxq.com/FuwaFbF9sM4xeYnC06ZT9Oy_7S1z?attname=%E5%BC%80%E6%BA%90%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8-%E6%B3%B0%E5%87%AF%E8%8B%B1%28920020%29%E5%8C%97%E4%BA%A4%E6%89%80%E9%A6%96%E6%AC%A1%E8%A6%86%E7%9B%96%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A%EF%BC%9A%E7%9F%BF%E5%B1%B1%E5%8F%8A%E5%BB%BA%E7%AD%91%E8%BD%AE%E8%83%8E%E6%96%B0%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E2%80%9C%E5%B0%8F%E5%B7%A8%E4%BA%BA%E2%80%9C%EF%BC%8C%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E7%9F%BF%E5%B1%B1%E9%A9%B1%E5%8A%A8%E6%96%B0%E6%88%90%E9%95%BF-260708.pdf&e=1784399594&token=q6iZ0sQtf9U7s1qz0r4yMawNq3-u2w6lbnai6y2J:EA9iBQB2Vs-_w7auQC4rELwJxpk=) - 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